CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Security services claimed terrorist attack on U.S. airbase foiled; arrested three alleged Hizb ut-Tahrir members. U.S.-funded independent printing house opened 14 November in Bishkek. Activists hope new printer will increase media freedom and limit state press’s ability to censor opposition. Tension persists on Uzbek border.
Russia presented proposal for resolution of dispute with Transdniestria region, sidestepping OSCE-led mediation process. Signing ceremony scheduled for 25 November cancelled by Moldovans at last moment after pressure from U.S. and EU, who were dissatisfied with proposed federal structure, in particular influence it would have given Transdniestrian separatist leadership over Moldovan economic and foreign policy. Peace process now back to square one under OSCE auspices. Anti-government demonstrations sparked by collapse of agreement continue. Evacuation of Russian military equipment from Transdniestria resumed after months-long pause, but troop withdrawal unlikely before second half of 2004.
Prime Minister Crvenkovski sacked four cabinet ministers for incompetence 1 November, approved by Parliament 5 November. Voluntary disarmament program commenced 1 November. EU military monitoring mission “Concordia” scheduled to wind up 15 December by which time 200-strong EU police mission “Proxima” will be largely deployed. President Boris Trajkovski announced Skopje's plans to apply for EU membership by February 2004 at Berlin conference 15 November.
Good Friday peace agreement and continued functioning of Northern Ireland Assembly thrown into doubt by 26 November election result. Hardline unionist and nationalist parties gained ground: 30 of 108 seats went to anti-agreement Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), 27 for Trimble’s Ulster Unionists; Sinn Fein won 24 seats, six more than moderate Social Democratic and Labour Party. No new executive government can be formed without agreement of both DUP and Sinn Fein, so no resolution likely while DUP continues to refuse to work with Sinn Fein. Assembly still suspended; DUP to hold talks with Blair 1 December but unlikely power-sharing government will resume in near future.
Political crisis continues. PM Zivkovic dissolved Parliament 13 November and called new parliamentary elections. Third attempt at presidential elections failed 16 November due to low voter turnout (32%), boycotted by two largest opposition parties: Kostunica’s DSS and the G17+ party of Miroljub Labus. Ultranationalist presidential candidate Nikolic won 46% of vote raising concerns for 28 December parliamentary elections. Former Croatian Serb leader Milan Babic indicted by ICTY 18 November. War crimes prosecutor Vukcevic insists on domestic competence to try all cases, but ICTY prosecutor Carla del Ponte adamant The Hague try senior figures. Ratko Mladic (indicted 1995) still at large with Belgrade denying knowledge of his whereabouts after he escaped police dragnet.
Land mines laid by Uzbekistan along common border continue to kill and maim civilians. Two Tajiks killed and three injured while gathering wood in frontier area 4 November.
Devastated by four truck bombs in six days; 61 killed and 750 injured. Two Istanbul synagogues attacked 15 November, then British Embassy (killing Consul General) and HSBC Bank 20 November. Three Turkish militant Islamist groups linked to al Qaeda claimed responsibility for attacks; 21 arrested and many more being interrogated. 22 suspects that had fled to Syria extradited 30 November. Kurdish rebels attacked military outpost in southern Turkey 5 November, killing one soldier. Political wing of Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK or KADEK) renamed itself People’s Congress of Kurdistan (KONGA-GEL) 11 November, claims to seek political solution but refuses to disband military wing; Ankara dismissed move as political stunt.
New law prohibiting unregistered religious activity came into effect 10 November, effectively banning all faiths but Sunni Islam and Russian Orthodox Church. Reporters Without Borders said RFE/RL correspondent under constant harassment from police. President Niyazov continues to run region’s most repressive regime.
Lower than expected cotton harvest will further undermine economic situation. No sign of relaxation of damaging restrictions on private trade. Human rights activists under continued pressure: Freedom House representatives harassed and threatened by local authorities in Namangan 21 November. Tension persists on borders: Uzbek residents of Sokh exclave, located on Kyrgyz side, demanding land corridor to Uzbekistan. Meanwhile, Uzbek land mines on frontier with Tajikistan killed two Tajik civilians and injured three others 4 November. Continuing repressive policies in Uzbekistan, and difficult economic situation, risk future unrest.
Country stable after October riots and resignation of President Sanchez de Lozada. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan pledged greater UN attention to region, following visit to Bolivia. Latin American neighbours also pledged assistance.
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