This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope talk to Belarusian expert Yauheni Preiherman about the outlook for Belarus's President Aleksandr Lukashenka after his crackdowns on dissidents, EU sanctions, and a recent standoff with European countries over refugees trapped on the Belarus-Poland border.
Minsk conducted more nuclear drills with Moscow, UN condemned govt repression, and Western neighbours sought to tighten borders.
Belarus conducted nuclear drills with Russia. Belarus and Russia 12 June launched second stage of non-strategic nuclear weapons drills, following first exercises in May. Meanwhile, Minsk 29 June accused Ukraine of amassing troops near Belarussian border; Chief of General Staff next day said Belarus could use nuclear weapons if “sovereignty and independence are endangered”.
UN condemned Belarus’ human rights record. In report produced ahead of UN Human Rights Council session 18 June-12 July, UN special rapporteur warned that human rights situation in Belarus had deteriorated further in past year. Meanwhile, U.S. 24 June designated Belarus a “state sponsor of human trafficking” in its annual human trafficking list.
In important international developments. Armenian PM Pashinyan 13 June announced he would not visit Belarus as long as Lukashenko was president after leaked documents published in Politico revealed Belarus sold weapons to Azerbaijan between 2018 and 2022. Latvian Defence Ministry 18 June announced allocation of €10mn to help fortify border with Belarus and Russia. Polish FM 23 June said Warsaw was considering closing border with Belarus amid fears about illegal migration. EU 29 June adopted new trade restrictions on Belarus to curb Russian sanctions evasion.
Thousands of people looking to enter the European Union have massed at the Belarusian frontier with Poland. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Oleg Ignatov explains how the events relate to tensions between Belarus and its ally, Russia, on one side, and Western governments on the other.
In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Olesya Vartanyan, Crisis Group’s senior South Caucasus analyst, opens up about how the recent flare-up in Nagorno-Karabakh is affecting her personally. It could be the “big war” between Armenia and Azerbaijan that everyone was dreading would happen.
President Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s government is teetering after he declared victory in a rigged 9 August vote. Protests have exploded. Moscow, Brussels and other stakeholders should avoid transforming the Belarus crisis into a European one, cooperate to warn against repression and insist on new, fair elections.
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