Efforts to repair diplomatic ties with Niger made progress as neighbours agreed to establish joint committee which may lead to wider agreement in August; jihadist violence remained threat in north. 

Relations with Niger thawed amid former presidents’ mediation initiative. Benin’s former presidents Boni Yayi and Soglo 1 July met with current President Talon to discuss their late-June visit to Niger’s capital Niamey as part of efforts to solve year-long Benin-Niger tensions. In communiqué same day, Talon emphasised commitment to “swift restoration of dialogue” with Niamey, while Nigerien authorities next day announced formation of joint committee to resolve differences. Nigerien Interior Minister Gen. Mohamed Toumba 24-5 visited Benin's Cotonou city to meet Talon, as both sides reported positive meetings and progress. Talks could pave way to restoring ties, reopening border and resuming oil exports through joint pipeline. Meanwhile, govt 11 July dismissed Burkina Faso President Capt. Traoré’s allegations that Benin hosted French military bases as “disinformation” and 16 July summoned Burkinabé ambassador. 

Jihadist insurgency persisted in northern departments. Suspected al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims militants 24 July killed seven soldiers and five park rangers near Mékrou river in National Park W; meanwhile, amid concerns over impact of spreading insecurity along northern border, govt 21 July announced some 5,000 Burkinabé refugees had crossed border in space of two days. 

Govt faced criticism from senior military figures about widespread insecurity and repression; diplomatic tensions heightened with Benin and Côte d’Ivoire.

Discord within military persisted over govt’s failure to address insecurity and shrinking space for dissent. Former President Lt. Col. Damiba 1 July sent letter to President Capt. Traoré raising alarm about challenges facing country, said “all-military strategy” had failed, and denounced violations of “elementary civil rights” amid ongoing repression and insecurity. Reports of internal discord within security forces continued; notably, gunmen 13 July abducted two senior military officers, including Damiba ally Lt. Col. Bamouni. Space for critics continued to be curtailed. Notably, at least four renowned journalists went missing from mid-June to late July, including unidentified armed men 13 July abducting radio journalist Alain Traoré. Govt 13-18 July also passed series of restrictive legislation criminalising homosexuality, allowing state to strip someone of nationality if they “act against the interests of the country” and permitting govt to take up to 15% stake in new mining projects.  

Insecurity continued across country. Al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) throughout month clashed with govt forces and military auxiliaries, with civilian fatalities recorded; notably, JNIM militants 12 July attacked Nagrabondi village (East region), reportedly killing 20 civilians. Thousands 17 and 20 July gathered in Bogande town (East) and Djibo city (Sahel region), respectively, to denounce govt’s inability to tackle deteriorating security situation.

Govt criticised Benin and Côte d’Ivoire, Alliance of Sahel States (AES) held summit. During 11 July speech which addressed security situation, diplomatic relations and plans for next five years, Traoré accused Benin and Côte d’Ivoire of hosting French military to train jihadist fighters; both immediately denied allegations and Benin 16 July summoned Burkinabé ambassador. Concurrently, Côte d’Ivoire 16 July expelled over 150 newly arrived Burkinabé refugees near shared border, heightening bilateral tensions. Meanwhile, AES – bringing Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger together – 6 July held summit in Niger’s capital Niamey to discuss joint military operations and reaffirmed decision to leave West African regional body ECOWAS (see Mali, Niger). 

Efforts to sideline opposition ahead of 2025 legislative elections continued amid further attacks on journalists, while economic situation remained dire. 

Opposition parties faced increased harassment. Local rights groups reported ruling-party youth wing Imbonerakure 2 July killed National Congress for Freedom (CNL) opposition party member in Isare commune and 4 July arrested and beat four people, including local CNL head, in Rubirizi area (both Bujumbura Rural province). Imbonerakure also blamed for harassment of other opposition parties including 7 July disruption to Patriots’ Council party meeting in Vugizo commune (Makamba province) and 6-7 July damage to Sahwanya-Frodebu party premises in Mitakataka area (Bubanza province). Unknown assailants 7 July kidnapped Sahwanya-Frodebu youth leader in Rumonge town (Rumonge province). 

Media freedom came under renewed attack. Imbonerakure 6 July attacked two journalists in Rumonge reporting on youth wing’s violence against suspected thief; police 13 July briefly detained another journalist in Bweru commune (Ruyigi province). Rights organisations at UN Human Rights Council meeting 4 July expressed concern over increasing threats ahead of 2025 elections including “hostile” environment for journalists and “harassment, intimidation, and reprisals against civil society actors”; UN rapporteur on human rights in Burundi, Fortuné Gaetan Zongo, same day said Imbonerakure have “free rein to terrorise the population, carry out arbitrary arrests, forcibly disappear people”.

Cross-border dynamics continued to strain perilous economic situation. FM Shingiro 1 July stated border with Rwanda will remain closed until Kigali extradites those responsible for 2015 coup attempt, heightening concerns among locals about worsening economic hardship. In response to severe fuel shortages in Burundi, authorities in Uvira city in neighbouring DR Congo 11 July lifted restrictions on trade of fuel trade via Rusizi River. 

Govt forces continued to clash with Anglophone separatist rebels, while Boko Haram attacks in Far North persisted; political climate remained tense ahead of 2025 presidential vote. 

Govt-separatist clashes continued in Anglophone regions. Ambazonia Peoples Liberation Council militias 1 July ambushed and killed two soldiers in Munyenge area, Fako division (South West, SW). Local sources alleged at least two civilians killed 4-8 July in North West (NW) during participation in bomb searches as part of military operations to dislodge separatist rebels. Rebels 6, 11 and 25 July attacked army convoys in Boyo (NW), Lebialem and Fako divisions (both SW) respectively, with unknown casualties. Locals in Francophone community in Bangourain town in West region mid-July expressed anger following 10 July kidnapping for ransom of two Francophones; some local figures blamed abduction on Anglophone separatists in neighbouring NW and threatened retaliation, raising threat of intercommunal violence. 

Boko Haram attacks in Far North persisted amid security operations. Jihadists 1-14 July made half dozen incursions into Mayo-Tsanaga, Logone-et-Chari and Mayo-Sava divisions, looting food and goods; militants 14 July surrounded police post in Tourou town, burning vehicles and killing one gendarme, and next day killed four civilians in Sandawajiri town. Meanwhile, Multinational Joint Task Force continued Operation Lake Sanity to reclaim territory; 9 July said dozens of insurgents and their families had surrendered.

Ruling party tightened grip ahead of 2025 presidential elections. Authorities 4 July suggested main opposition figure Maurice Kamto might be barred from 2025 presidential race as his party lacks parliamentary representation. President Biya 24 July signed into law govt proposal to extend mandate of parliamentarians and councillors and postpone 2025 parliamentary and local elections until 2026; opposition heavily criticised bill. Pre-empting protests, official in capital Yaoundé 16 July threatened to temporarily ban from city govt critics or those calling for demonstrations. Meanwhile, authorities 31 July released on bail social media activist detained week earlier after encouraging voter registration in videos.

In another important development. Relations between Cameroon and Nigeria continued to improve over border demarcation after bilateral commission 27 June agreed to not refer three outstanding issues of disagreement to International Court of Justice to rule on.

Clashes between army and rebels continued as more militias disarmed; tensions around Oct local polls remained high and govt discussed budgetary aid with France. 

Military and rebels continued to fight in northern regions. Clashes between Russian paramilitary-supported army and rebels persisted; fighters from Return, Reclamation, Rehabilitation (3R) rebel group 2 July attacked army position in Ngoutéré village (Ouham-Pendé prefecture) and ambushed military convoy bringing reinforcements, in total killing three soldiers and three civilians. Military same day attacked position of Unity for Peace in the Central African Republic (UPC) rebels in Ouadda town (Haute-Kotto prefecture), reportedly killing at least seven UPC fighters. 3R fighters 8 July ambushed convoy of Chinese mining companies near Baboua town (Nana-Manbéré prefecture), taking two Chinese nationals hostage. Army and Russian paramilitaries 23 July killed self-proclaimed anti-Balaka general and deputy in Bouca town (Ouham-Fafa prefecture); photos that circulated of the two decapitated bodies caused widespread indignation. Meanwhile, more militias continued to follow example of ethnic Azandé self-defence group in south east and voluntarily disarmed to integrate into army. Near Bossangoa town (Ouham prefecture), self-proclaimed anti-Balaka General Jabra 9 July disarmed with some 250 fighters, allegedly members of Coalition of Patriots for Change. But govt continued to lack financial resources to support further inclusion into army, which could lead to discontent.

Political tensions continued ahead of Oct local elections. President Touadéra 2 July promulgated new electoral code but opposition denounced provisions including definition of “indigenous Central Africans” and requirement to update electoral lists one year before each election. Head of opposition party Movement for Liberation of Central African People 5 July said composition of electoral commission favours Touadéra. While others suggested election postponement, main opposition platform Republican Bloc for the Defence of the Constitution continued to call for boycott.

France looked to resume budget support in sign of normalisation. French delegation 11 July met PM Moloua in capital Bangui to discuss new terms of budgetary aid, three years after suspending direct support amid anti-French propaganda fuelled by Russia.

In another important development. UN Security Council 30 July lifted arms embargo imposed in 2013 at start of civil war.

Social discontent continued in capital N’Djamena while diplomatic row broke out with France; army conducted operation against Boko Haram in west while farmer-herder violence persisted.

Authorities faced public criticism in capital. Police 17 July arrested members of Sabarna, platform of unemployed graduates, after they staged sit-in outside PM’s offices to demand integration into civil service; arrests came after late-June crackdown on peaceful protest by same group outside U.S. embassy. Meanwhile, frustration grew in N’Djamena over local govt’s measures to tackle traffic congestion, including among those whose makeshift stalls were demolished; traders at “Champ de fil”, country’s largest informal market for car parts, 11 July protested against forced evictions.

Govt conducted anti-militant offensive near Lake Chad. Army chief of staff 2 July said elite Rapid Intervention Force neutralised 70 Boko Haram militants in counter-insurgency operation; insurgents had taken refuge in Chad after campaign by Multinational Joint Task Force in Lake Chad region beginning May. 

Herder-farmer violence persisted in south. Notably, herders and farmers 2 July clashed near Goré town, Nya Pendé department (Logone Oriental region), leaving four people dead; Logone Oriental provincial governor 4 July dismissed prefect of Nya Pendé who accused farmers of being rebels. Also, violent clash 2 July near Pala town (Mayo-Kebbi Ouest region) after cattle crossed maize fields wounded three. 

President Déby postponed Paris visit amid diplomatic quarrel with France. Media 2 July reported French authorities in Jan had opened investigation against Déby for embezzlement of public funds. Amid reports French financial crime investigators may extend inquiries to include assets of president and close associates in France, Déby postponed planned 15 July visit to Paris to discuss future of French presence in Chad. Case provoked mixed reactions in N’Djamena. National coordinator of anti-corruption organisation Jacques Saham Ngarassal 3 July called for continuation of investigation to establish responsibility; but civil society organisation Chad Wahid Platform 6 July denounced investigation as tactic to put pressure on Chad after Déby’s rapprochement with Russia, while magistrates’ union 10 July described charges as violation of country’s sovereignty. Neither Paris nor N’Djamena mentioned case publicly.

Former President Gbagbo began 2025 election campaign; tensions with Burkina Faso remained high.

Former President Gbagbo kicked off campaign for 2025 presidential election. Gbagbo from African People’s Party-Côte d’Ivoire (PPA-CI) party 14 July called for opposition to “unite” ahead of vote during speech in Bonoua town, former stronghold of party he founded in 1980s. Gbagbo’s candidacy, however, faces major obstacles including his age (79), ineligibility due to 2018 criminal conviction for looting Central Bank of West African States during 2010-2011 post-electoral crisis and competition from previous allies.

Ties with Ouagadougou remained strained. Burkina Faso’s President Capt. Traoré 11 July accused Côte d’Ivoire of hosting “centre of operations to destabilise” his country, following recent incidents along border. In interview with Jeune Afrique newspaper, Defence Minister Téné Birahima Ouattara 19 July denied accusations, saying any destabilisation would send people across its border. Meanwhile, govt 16 July expelled over 160 Burkinabé refugees who had just crossed border, as authorities appeared increasingly reluctant to accept refugees, seen as potential source of insecurity; country has hosted over 60,000 refugees from Burkina Faso since 2021.

Reports emerged of planned U.S. military base in north. Amid early-July reports that govt had agreed to establish American military base in Odienné town (north west), govt officials on several occasions throughout July said they were not “aware” of plans. Meanwhile, speaking to media in Abidjan city, U.S. commander for Africa Gen. Kenneth Ekman 24 July dismissed reports, saying “we have no plans to build a base”; U.S. would, however, continue working with Ivorian security forces to “consolidate existing partnerships”.

In another important development. Clashes 25 July erupted between residents and local govt officials backed by security forces in Adjamé Village neighbourhood in Abidjan following evictions linked to road construction project, reportedly killing two people.

Amid insecurity and tensions over conflict with M23 rebels, Kinshasa and Kigali agreed to ceasefire, raising hopes for greater calm in east in coming weeks. 

Rwandan and Congolese FMs signed ceasefire over situation in eastern DRC. Congolese FM Wagner and Rwandan counterpart Nduhungirehe 30 July agreed to ceasefire between “parties to conflict in east” during high-level meeting in Angolan-capital Luanda; ceasefire due to start on 4 Aug. While EU, UN and U.S. welcomed deal, which offers chance to halt fighting, much remained unclear about agreement including position of Rwandan-backed M23 who were not signatories to accord. Earlier, Washington 4 July brokered two-week humanitarian truce between govt and M23, 17 July announced extension until 3 Aug; sporadic fighting between M23 and pro-govt Wazalendo militias, however, continued in Masisi and Lubero territories. 

Authorities wrestled with political, security ramifications of M23 crisis. Recent M23/Rwandan northwards advance fuelled fears of social and ethnic tensions in North Kivu province after local youth 30 June killed two NGO staff in Lubero territory, identified as speakers of Kinyarwanda language dominant in Rwanda. Military tribunal in Butembo city 8 July sentenced 22 soldiers to death for fleeing during Kanyabayonga town’s fall to M23 in June. Military court in capital Kinshasa 24 July opened trial against Corneille Nangaa, head of pro-M23 politico-military group Congo River Alliance (AFC), and 24 others for “high treason”. Meanwhile, authorities 23 July arrested Jean-Bosco Bahala, govt disarmament program coordinator, after he led delegation that reportedly met M23 and AFC members in Uganda previous day. 

Other armed groups remained prominent. In Ituri in east, ethnic Lendu militia CODECO 13 July clashed with rival “Zaire” group in Djugu territory, leaving 26 dead. In North Kivu, Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces militants 16-18 July attacked Babila-Bakaiko locality, Beni territory, killing at least 37 civilians. In western Mai-Ndombe province near capital Kinshasa, intercommunal violence 13-14 July caused at least 72 deaths in Kinsele village. 

In important international developments. UN Security Council 8 July discussed situation in east amid high DRC-Rwanda tensions (see Rwanda). Meanwhile, UN and Kinshasa mid-July indicated UN mission MONUSCO would slow withdrawal from North Kivu and Ituri provinces given insecurity. 

Asmara banned Ethiopia Airlines and expelled Sudanese chargé d’affaires as regional tensions simmered.

Tensions with Ethiopia shaped Asmara’s regional foreign policy. Amid souring relations with Ethiopia over resolution of Tigray conflict, Eritrea’s Civil Aviation Authority 21 July advised Ethiopian Airlines that carrier would not be allowed to operate flights to country effective from 30 Sept. Meanwhile, Eritrea 24 July expelled Sudanese Chargé d’Affaires Khaled Abbas, giving him 72 hours to leave capital, Asmara, without providing reasons. Move came two weeks after Ethiopian PM Abiy visited Sudan and met with chief of Sudanese Army (SAF), General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, in apparent attempt to mend relations; this, alongside Tigray People’s Liberation Army’s alleged support for SAF, may have prompted decision.

Somalia’s president visited Eritrea for third time since January. Somali President Mohamud 8-9 July made third official trip to Eritrea this year, meeting with President Isaias Afwerki to discuss political and military cooperation. Mohamud also addressed Somali Air Force cadets undergoing training at Eritrean Air Force Training Centre, urging them to revive once-prominent Somali Air Force and to safeguard national unity. Visit took place in context of diplomatic disputes between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa, as Somalia opposes Ethiopia’s port deal signed in Jan with breakaway region of Somaliland.

Gunmen attacked Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia. Unidentified gunmen 6 July stabbed seven Eritrean refugees at Alemwach refugee camp, North Gondar Zone, in Ethiopia’s Amhara Region; Eritrean refugees had been relocated to Alemwach in 2021 after facing attacks in their previous camps in Tigray region. 

Fano militias continued to wreak havoc in Amhara, thousands of displaced Tigrayans returned to areas disputed between Tigray and Amhara, and Oromia insurgency took heavy toll on civilians.

Amhara insurgency continued despite peace initiative. After late-June formation of Regional Peace Council to facilitate talks with Fano militias, some factions 16 July formed Amhara Fano Popular Organization and elected as leader former journalist Eskinder Nega, who in June stressed need for united front before talks with govt can begin. Meanwhile, clashes between security forces and Fano continued in East, West and North Gojjam, North Shewa, North and South Wollo, and North, Central, South and West Gondar zones. Violence 5 July also broke out between Fano and ethnic Agaw militias in Quara woreda (West Gondar) after Fano asked Agaw to hand over weapons and stop supporting govt; Fano 9 July reportedly took control of area, while local authorities reported over 80 civilians killed and 10,000 displaced.

Tensions persisted over return of displaced Tigrayans to disputed territories. Some 15,000 internally displaced persons late June-early July returned to Tselemti district in Tigray’s North Western Zone after removal of Amhara administration, and to Alamata town in Southern Tigray Zone, sparking two-day protest from Amhara residents who said Tigray soldiers were among returnees. Resettlement in Western Tigray likely to face resistance from well-armed militias associated with Amhara administration there. Meanwhile, tensions between Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal govt, and divisions within TPLF leadership came to fore. Notably, PM Abiy late July threatened war if TPLF does not register with election board before it holds party congress, while Tigray Interim Administration President Getachew Reda 29 July accused TPLF leadership of corruption, mismanagement and jeopardising regional security.

Mass kidnapping highlighted insecurity in Oromia region. Clashes between Ethiopian military and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) persisted across Oromia, including East and West Wollega, Horo Guduru Wollega, South West, West and North Shewa, Sheger City areas, and Guji zones. Assailants believed to be OLA members 2 July kidnapped over 160 students near Gebre Guracha town (North Shewa), though many were reportedly released in following days; OLA 11 July denied involvement and blamed govt.