Flashpoint / Global

Riyadh

I. Why it Matters

The regional power competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia is heating up. A sense that Tehran and its allies have been steadily gaining influence across a number of countries, set against a more assertive leadership in Riyadh, is playing out as a zero-sum struggle across the Middle East. From Yemen to Lebanon, competition between the two regional powers exacerbates existing conflicts and creates new tensions in a region already engulfed in turmoil. So far, their contests have exacted a relatively low cost on their respective publics. But this could change dramatically if, for example, an Iranian-provided ballistic missile fired by the Huthis causes significant casualties in Saudi Arabia, or an Iranian separatist group bolstered by Saudi aid conducts a deadly attack in Iran, or a cyberattack were to successfully penetrate key systems in one of the states in the region. More broadly, a real or perceived threat to either country’s power centre could make its leadership feel compelled to escalate.

II. Recent Developments

  • 22 May 2024
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III. Background

During the Cold War, Iran and Saudi Arabia constituted the twin pillars of U.S. Middle East policy, but the 1979 Iranian revolution brought dramatic change, with Iran developing a foreign policy that was deeply hostile to the U.S. and whose regional ambitions the Saudi kingdom saw as threatening to its rule.

The two countries’ relationship is driven by deep-rooted mutual suspicion and a zero-sum geostrategic rivalry. Their regional standing derives from their resources: in Iran’s case, its long history of nationhood, demographic weight (comparable in the region only to Egypt and Turkey), significant oil resources and championing of politicised Shiite Islam, forging of an “axis of resistance” against Israel; for Saudi Arabia, its vast energy reserves, custodianship of Islam’s holiest shrines, championing of Sunni Islam (in particular, its Wahhabist variety) and close alliance with the West.

The Saudi-Iranian relationship is often reduced to a sectarian struggle between two governments who each claim the mantle of Islamic leadership. There is some truth to this. Iran’s post-1979 order drew its legitimacy from a distinct iteration of Islam that not only clashed with the Saudi version but challenged the kingdom’s claim to leadership of the Muslim world. In the revolution’s immediate aftermath, Iran directed a pan-Islamic “exporting the revolution” discourse at its Arab neighbours, most of whom it dubbed illegitimate and pawns of malign external forces (imperialism and Zionism); and it incited Shiite populations throughout the Gulf by exploiting the fact of their discrimination in some states, particularly Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

Yet a lens that views developments solely on the basis of an ageless battle between Shiites (Iran) and Sunnis (Saudi Arabia) obscures the subtleties of Saudi-Iranian relations. Their respective regional policies are often based on self-defence and power projection, exploiting rather than deriving from religious ideology. Today, Tehran still engages in its religious-qua-revolutionary rhetoric when it serves its interests, and Arab states, which took Iran’s discourse as a call for “regime change” and regional hegemony, cite this as evidence of the futility of dialogue to reduce tensions. In turn, Iran accuses Saudi Arabia of spreading Wahhabi ideology, arguing that “this theological perversion has wrought havoc” around the world. But the essence of their rivalry is a struggle for power and regional influence between two states.

During the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988), Saudi Arabia, while not a belligerent, chose Iraq’s side. Indeed, for Saudi Arabia and its allies, Iraq was an essential buffer against Iranian revolutionary fervour and claims to regional dominance. After the war, in the 1990s, the Iran-Saudi relationship stabilised; both sides had common concerns about Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. They toned down their inflammatory rhetoric and at times cooperated, especially in the field of energy. They even signed an unprecedented security agreement in 2001 for coordination on issues such as terrorism, money laundering and drug smuggling.

The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq upset this precarious balance; Riyadh lost much of its influence in Iraq, and Iran’s star rose. Iran exploited the post-2003 security vacuum to promote Shiite Islamist parties – with whom it had decades-long ties – and affiliated militias; these militias have since been incorporated into the Iraqi security apparatus. Regional instability since 2011, along with what Riyadh and others perceived as Washington’s excessive complacency toward growing Iranian influence in the Middle East in the context of negotiations over the nuclear deal, led Saudi Arabia to adopt a newly assertive posture. This has included a full-scale war in Yemen to confront the Huthis, a group the Saudis perceive as Iranian proxies, from March 2015 onward. Saudi Arabia and Iran cut ties in January 2016 after Iran denounced the execution of a Saudi Shiite cleric and Saudi diplomatic facilities in Iran were ransacked by a mob. In October 2017, both sides signed agreements with the Swiss government to represent their respective interests in Riyadh and Tehran.

Smoke rises from Saudi Arabia's embassy during a demonstration in Tehran, 2 January 2016 ISNA

IV. Analysis

Over A Barrel: Saudi Arabia plays a critical part in a key component of the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, namely reducing Iran’s oil sales without upending the international energy market. The JCPOA allowed Tehran to raise crude exports from around one million barrels per day at the height of international sanctions to as much as triple that after sanctions were removed. Oil policy was subsequently a rare break from mutual enmity between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with Tehran spared the cuts other members of OPEC were asked to make in order to push up prices. But with the stated U.S. objective now to reduce Iranian crude exports to “as close to zero as possible”, the expectation is that Saudi Arabia will shoulder part of the burden of replacing lost Iranian barrels and help prevent a spike in oil prices. While Riyadh is confident it can adequately compensate for any shortfalls in the market – “we did our job and more”, remarked Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in October – Iran insists that efforts to close the tap on it will, over time, result in market volatility.         

A Rivalry on the Rise? Under new leadership from 2015 onward, Saudi Arabia has come to the conclusion that it has been too passive in the face of perceived Iranian expansion and increasing clout in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria. In this respect, it shares the Trump administration’s declared aim of pushing back against Iranian influence. Growing anti-Iran animus in both Washington and Riyadh is taking place against the backdrop of the Islamic State’s decline, which has given rise to growing increased competition across the region in the resulting vacuum. This comes as Saudi Arabia has made clear it is not interested in dialogue with Iran, claiming its militancy, ideological views and aspirations to destabilize Saudi Arabia and its allies preclude talks. Saudi officials have made clear in private they do not wish to negotiate with Iran from a position of relative weakness and wish to restore some form of strategic balance.

President Donald Trump, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and the President of Egypt, Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, in the inaugural opening of the Global Center for Combating Extremist Ideology, 21 May 2017 The White House Flicker

Yemen as Main Stage. Riyadh believes that Iran seeks to destabilise Gulf countries as part of hegemonic ambitions. In that context, Iranian influence in Yemen, its southern neighbour that sits on the critical Red Sea waterway and Bab al-Mandab gate onto the Indian Ocean, is an existential threat. Saudi leaders also reject the possibility of a Hizbollah-like entity on its porous 1800-kilometre border. After Huthi forces overthrew Hadi and drove south toward Aden in early 2015, Saudi Arabia and its allies launched a combined air and ground campaign, with the goal, codified in a UN Security Council resolution, of rolling back Huthi advances and reinstating the Hadi government in Sanaa. Three years later, Saudi Arabia is bogged down in a war that appears militarily unwinnable, has caused a humanitarian catastrophe, and is financially costly and hugely damaging to its reputation, while Iran’s growing ties with the Huthis arguably are a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The Hariri Affair. The crisis surrounding the resignation of Lebanon’s prime minister, Saad Hariri, on 4 November 2017, suggests that Lebanon is not insulated from the Tehran-Riyadh rivalry either. Riyadh appears to have essentially coerced Hariri into his decision, which he subsequently suspended, then reversed, once he was able to leave Saudi Arabia through French intercession. The Saudis may have believed that, by highlighting Hizbollah’s role in Lebanon, they could further isolate and weaken it, and, as a result, curb Iran’s role. Whatever the objective, it appears to have backfired, as Hariri’s alliance with Hizbollah solidified in the wake of the affair.

Deepening Fault Lines. The Saudi-Iranian rivalry is manifesting itself in new theatres. In addition to Yemen and Lebanon, Saudi Arabia is considering how to counter Iran on a range of other fronts. As a senior Saudi security official put it, “we are on the front line today to push Iran in its borders”. The warming of Riyadh’s ties with Baghdad, which began in 2016 and is supported by the U.S., is aimed at least in part at curbing Iranian influence in Iraq. Lingering Saudi distrust over Qatar’s pragmatic working relationship with Iran over exploitation of their shared offshore gas field contributed, among other factors, to the punitive boycott of Qatar by its Gulf neighbours in June 2017.

V. Scenarios and Recommendations

Iraq As a De-Escalation Zone? Saudi officials ambitiously say they would like to reverse the political balance in Iraq by raising their currently minimal influence to 70 per cent, with Iran holding the remainder. If its objective is to roll back Iran’s influence, however, Saudi Arabia will find that many Iraqis view that as a red line, a way of turning their country into an arena of regional combat. Both Riyadh and Tehran stand to gain if they build on their common interests in Iraq, including in boosting the Iraqi economy, preventing the re-emergence of ISIS, maintaining Iraq’s territorial integrity and reducing sectarian conflict. Oil policy could also build trust.

A Looming Escalation? The sharpening of Saudi-Iranian competition raises the risks and costs of direct confrontation. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman has warned that “we won’t wait for the battle to be in Saudi Arabia. Instead, we’ll work so that the battle is for them in Iran”. Cyber warfare has become a feature of the rivalry, with Iran thought to be behind the hacking of Saudi Aramco in 2012 and suspected of other cyberattacks since. The probability of covert activities and propaganda campaigns increasing in scope and sophistication is strong, though both sides are likely to try to limit military confrontation to proxy theatres.

The Yemen Question: The humanitarian costs and escalatory risks in Yemen make it an area of particular urgency. Growing Huthi missile capabilities, for which the Saudis hold Iran directly responsible, raise the political stakes. A strike causing significant casualties and damage in Saudi or Emirati civilian areas could trigger an escalation directly involving Saudi and Iranian forces; this could pull the U.S. in to aid its Saudi ally. Huthi threats to interfere with shipping in the Red Sea if the Saudi-led military coalition continues their efforts to capture the port of Hodeida could have a similar effect.

This underscores the urgent need for a political solution to the conflict: the UN Security Council should pass a new resolution calling on all sides to agree to a ceasefire and for a political solution that requires mutual compromise. Both Huthi forces and the Saudi-led coalition should cease indiscriminate attacks that could result in high civilian casualties. Finally, the Saudi-led coalition should, regardless of wider talks, provide unhindered humanitarian access to all ports and airports, something it promised to do and now needs to implement; the Huthis should accept additional weapons inspections in return for the opening of Sanaa airport to limited commercial flights and the full opening and rehabilitation of Hodeida seaport.   

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif (R) and his Saudi counterpart, Adel al-Jubeir (L), during a short encounter in Istanbul, 2 August 2017 IRNA

Talking at (not with) each other: Saudi-Iranian bilateral “dialogue” is currently limited to acrimonious competing op-eds by Saudi and Iranian officials in the U.S. media, each trying to paint the other as the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism in general and gravest threat to U.S. interests in particular (see hereherehere, and here for examples). Often lost amidst the pointed barbs are small but meaningful areas of mutually-beneficial interaction. After hundreds of Iranians died during the 2015 Hajj, Iran boycotted the 2016 pilgrimage, but bilateral talks enabled more than 80,000 Iranians to travel to Saudi Arabia for the 2017 Hajj, and around 86,000 the following year. The two sides also agreed to have Switzerland serve as a diplomatic go-between. In light of their competition elsewhere, such examples signal the potential of an eventual thaw, especially if they can become the basis for dialogue on wider issues.

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