CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) adopted platform of wide-ranging reforms at party conference; to what extent proposals will be implemented remains to be seen. 900 Islamists released from prison, but estimates put number of political prisoners at close to 10,000.

Iran

After negotiations with foreign ministers of UK, France, and Germany, Iran agreed 21 October to all major IAEA demands regarding nuclear program, including temporary suspension of uranium enrichment, meaning issue now unlikely to be referred to Security Council on passing of 31 October IAEA deadline. But no word on how long suspension of enrichment activities will last. U.S. cautioned that Iran’s actions must match words, and that it must sign Additional Protocol of Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty (NPT). Iranian human rights activist Shirin Ebadi won Nobel Peace Prize

Iraq

UN voted unanimously 16 October in favour of U.S.- sponsored resolution authorising multinational, American-led force for Iraq. But resolution unlikely to result in major contributions. Turkey offered up to 10,000 troops, but strong resistance to potential Turkish military presence from Iraqi Kurds. Significant but insufficient cash pledged at Madrid donors conference. Resolution set 15 December deadline for Iraqi Governing Council to lay down timetable for drafting constitution and holding elections. Meanwhile, intense violence continues to plague country, predominantly Sunni triangle. Wave of suicide bombings struck Baghdad Red Cross building and police stations 27 October, first day of Ramadan, killing at least 35 and wounding over 200. Barrage of rockets hit Al-Rashid hotel 26 October, where Deputy Sec. Defense Paul Wolfowitz staying. Hundreds of other attacks kept tensions high throughout month. 131 Coalition soldiers, including 120 Americans, killed by hostile fire since 1 May, declared end of combat operations. National Security Council under Condoleezza Rice reportedly taking increased role in post-war stabilisation effort.

Israel/Palestine

Major escalation in Arab-Israeli conflict as Israel retaliated for devastating Haifa suicide bombing with first military attack on Syria since 1973 war. Air strike on apparently abandoned training camp near Damascus, seen as message to Syria that its support for Palestinian militants will no longer be tolerated, raised fears of possible broadening of conflict. Israeli aircraft struck five times in Gaza 20 October, killing 11 and injuring over 100, resulting in criticism – some internal – that attacks were disproportionate. Israeli army chief Lt-Gen Moshe Yaalon said government hardline policies damaging country’s interests. Palestinian PM Ahmed Qurei will stay on to form new government after one- month term of emergency cabinet expires at beginning of November. Three Americans killed in Gaza 15 October when bomb exploded on road as U.S. diplomatic convoy drove past. In New York, U.S. vetoed UN Security Council resolution urging Israel to halt construction of security fence in West Bank.

Jordan

Jordanian PM Ali Abul-Ragheb resigned after three years in office; replaced by Faisal al-Fayez, who vowed to push ahead with reforms. Three women appointed to new cabinet as King Abdullah moves to change face of government amid calls for country’s political modernisation.

Lebanon

Israeli soldier killed 7 October in clash on Lebanese border amid heightened regional tensions after Israeli raid on Syria days earlier. Second exchange of fire 27 October as Hizbollah guerrillas attacked Israeli positions in Shebaa Farms and Israel responded with air strikes.

Mauritania

Five opposition candidates given permission by Constitutional Court to challenge President Taya in 7 November elections. One candidate is former military leader Mohamed Khouna Ould Haidalla, who was overthrown by Taya in coup 19 years ago.

Morocco

King Mohammed VI announced plans to grant new rights to women regarding marriage and divorce. On three-day visit to Morocco, President Chirac praised King's steps towards democratic reform. Man arrested in Spain in connection with Casablanca bombings. U.S. announced plans for substantial increase in financial aid to Morocco for 2004.

Saudi Arabia

Government announced intention to hold municipal council elections within a year. Elections would be first ever for kingdom, and are reportedly initial stage of three-step plan to have elections at city level and ultimately national level over three years. Vote unlikely to include women. Authorities arrested more than 150 people for staging rare protest in Riyadh calling for political reform and announced apprehension of terror suspects planning suicide attacks.

Syria

Israeli strike on apparently abandoned training camp near Damascus first direct hostilities between two sides in 30 years. Risk of further escalation as Syria unlikely to satisfy Israeli demands that it stop supporting Palestinian militants. U.S. House of Rep. voted to impose economic and diplomatic sanctions on Damascus as American officials complained Syria taking almost no steps to stem terrorism.

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