Since fighting erupted in Juba in July 2016 and a major rebel faction returned to war, rebel groups have proliferated though conflict is much reduced from its height in 2014. The government’s current strategy can secure Juba but cannot deliver sustainable nationwide peace. Of the millions experiencing hunger due to the conflict’s impact on civilians, the UN declared 100,000 in famine conditions for several months in 2017. Through field-based research and engagement with relevant national, regional and international actors, Crisis Group aims to support humanitarian access and build a new consensus around sustainable peace efforts that address the regionalised nature of the conflict as well as its localised dynamics.
Income from oil exports is critical to keeping South Sudan’s factious elites together. The war in neighbouring Sudan has led earnings to fall precipitously, threatening instability in Juba and highlighting anew the need to bring the Sudanese conflict to a close.
Talks between govt and holdout opposition groups stalled after VP Machar’s party withdrew from initiative, concerns about December election abounded, and violence persisted in several areas.
Machar’s party withdrew from Kenya-led “Tumaini” peace initiative. Talks between govt and several opposition groups who did not sign 2018 peace accord, dubbed Tumaini Initiative, early July continued in Kenyan capital Nairobi; parties 15 July signed protocols on security reforms, humanitarian access and confidence-building measures, among other things. Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) led by VP Machar (which forms part of govt delegation) 16 July withdrew from talks, however, saying initiative undermined 2018 peace deal. Decision brought dialogue to halt, and govt delegation returned to capital Juba for consultations.
Juba remained divided about how to proceed with December general election. Separate dialogue in Juba among 2018 peace deal signatories continued throughout July to clarify electoral process and address other unimplemented provisions of agreement. Tensions mounted between President Kiir’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and SPLM-IO, however, exacerbated by disagreement over Tumaini Initiative. Some fear Kiir will hold election without consensus among parties on process, further undermining peace deal and raising risk of political turbulence. Meanwhile, international actors remained concerned about poll, with U.S. official Elizabeth Campbell 22 July criticising govt’s “lack of progress” toward creating conditions for “genuine and peaceful elections”.
Security situation remained fragile. In Equatoria region, reports late June-early July emerged that rebel group National Salvation Front (NAS) led by Thomas Cirillo was actively recruiting in Western Equatoria State, while John Kenyi Loburon, who defected from NAS late June, reportedly recruited in Central Equatoria State; divisions within NAS, including risk of clashes between Cirillo’s and Loburon’s groups, could fuel instability in region. In Jonglei State (Greater Upper Nile region), clashes between Duk County and Twic East County communities 19 July killed at least nine. Meanwhile, Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces made gains near South Sudanese border, raising concerns of spillover (see Sudan).
Economy continued to deteriorate. South Sudan’s main oil pipeline through Sudan remained in disrepair, shrinking govt revenues and fuelling inflation. Parliament 26 July summoned finance minister to explain delays in civil servants’ salaries.
The situation is horrendous in South Sudan, and it seems to keep getting worse despite the peace deal.
In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Edmund Yakani, executive director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, to discuss new political talks in Kenya and whether South Sudan can weather a sudden plunge in oil revenue.
This edition includes entries on Cameroon, South Sudan, Venezuela and Western Sahara, offering a snapshot into emergent conflicts and crises in the next three to six months in a clear, accessible format, identifying triggers, key dates to watch and potential behaviour of conflict actors, to support global conflict prevention efforts.
This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Edmund Yakani, a leading South Sudanese civil society activist and executive director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, to discuss the state of South Sudan’s peace process and the prospects for elections next year.
In South Sudan, still reeling from civil war, consecutive years of record flooding have pushed hundreds of thousands out of their homes, intensifying competition for resources and contributing to deadly conflict. Donors and aid groups should work with South Sudanese partners to better meet the needs of all.
This week on The Horn, guest host Nicolas Delaunay is joined by Nazanine Moshiri, Crisis Group’s climate & security expert, to discuss the complex, often dangerous relationship between climate stresses and conflict in the Horn and on the continent more broadly.
Side deals between President Salva Kiir and renegade opposition leaders jeopardise the 2018 agreement that ended the worst fighting of South Sudan’s civil war. East African mediators should press the principal combatants – Kiir and Riek Machar – to restart talks on the issues that divide them.
Originally published in The African Report.
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