President Yoweri Museveni’s growing authoritarianism and the country’s weak institutions are multiplying Uganda’s challenges. Conflict risks at the local level are rising due to uncertain political succession, economic stagnation, a youth bulge and an influx of refugees from South Sudan. The state’s repression of political opposition and its increasing reliance on security responses to political problems is fostering discontent in politically and economically marginalised communities. Through field research in Kampala and conflict-affected areas, Crisis Group works to reduce the likelihood of local tensions escalating into violence. We indicate how Ugandan policymakers can embark on a process of democratic transition in order to reduce the risk of discontent turning into political instability, protest and violence.
Fighting in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo is intensifying, with Ugandan and Burundian soldiers in pursuit of rebels and Congolese insurgents on the rebound. With help from its allies, Kinshasa should step up diplomacy lest the country become a regional battleground once more.
Despite series of arrests of officials for financial misconduct, protesters took to street to denounce corruption among lawmakers; military denied support toward M23 rebel group in DR Congo.
Anti-corruption demonstrations erupted despite govt’s moves against graft. Authorities 18 July arrested Trade Ministry official Geraldine Ssali over allegations of financial mismanagement and of conspiring with MPs to steal compensation funds; various local officials also arrested during month. Eager to appear uncompromising, President Museveni 11 July requested courts deny bail to corrupt officials. Public remained largely unimpressed, however, and civil society activists 23 July marched to parliament in capital Kampala to denounce corruption among lawmakers, defying ban on protest. Police reportedly arrested three organisers and dozens of protesters. Protests 25 July resumed in Kampala; police next day said they had arrested 104 demonstrators during week, charging 100 with public order offences as U.S. urged govt to investigate allegations that some detainees had been assaulted. Meanwhile, court 29 July charged 36 opposition supporters with terrorism-related offences after they were detained when attending training course in Kenya; opposition activists alleged detainees physically abused.
Govt’s alleged support for M23 rebels in DR Congo continued to stir uproar. After UN report made public early July alleged Kampala’s support for M23 rebel group in DR Congo, military 10 July called claim “laughable” and “baseless”; however Congolese govt 19 July summoned Uganda’s chargé d’affaires over issue, while M23 5 July confirmed presence of some M23 commanders and representatives in Uganda, but denied they were using country as base. Meanwhile, Kampala 22 July reportedly hosted meeting between M23 and coordinator of Congolese govt disarmament program (see DR Congo).
In important international developments. Ugandan army 2 July handed over Bariire base to Somali army as part of AU mission drawdown but Ugandan troops remained target of Al-Shabaab as roadside bomb 8 July killed officer and wounded six others in Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Great Lakes expert Nelleke van de Walle about the escalation of violence in the eastern DR Congo, as Uganda and Burundi deploy troops to fight rebels in the area and Rwanda threatens to do the same.
The Islamic State has claimed two suicide bombings in the Ugandan capital Kampala. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Dino Mahtani unpacks what happened and assesses the threat of further such attacks in East Africa.
This week on The Horn, Africa editor at Nation Media Group Daniel Kalinaki joins Alan Boswell for a deep dive into what Uganda’s latest elections revealed about President Museveni’s hold on power and the likelihood of future instability.
Official results indicate that President Yoweri Museveni will extend his 35-year rule in Uganda. But the contested election, marred by fraud claims, illustrated many citizens’ frustration with his administration. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Murithi Mutiga explains why the path ahead will be rocky.
President Tshisekedi’s plans for joint operations with DR Congo’s belligerent eastern neighbours against its rebels risks regional proxy warfare. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2020 for European policymakers, Crisis Group urges the EU to encourage diplomatic efforts in the region and Tshisekedi to shelve his plan for the joint operations.
Three Great Lakes states – Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda – are trading charges of subversion, each accusing another of sponsoring rebels based in the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo. Outside powers should help the Congolese president resolve these tensions, lest a lethal multi-sided melee ensue.
Economically and politically, Uganda's government’s actions are leading to growing frustrations and lawlessness.
Growing discontent threatens the dysfunctional and corrupt political system built by President Museveni, who is now manoeuvering to extend his three decades in power by raising a 75-year age limit on presidential candidates. As security, governance and economic performance deteriorates, Uganda needs urgent reforms to avoid greater instability.
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