The project of reunifying Cyprus, an island divided since 1974, long in stasis, has become dramatically more difficult in recent years. Amid broader regional tensions and increasing militarisation of the eastern Mediterranean, relations between Greek and Turkish Cypriots have soure, and prospects for a comprehensive settlement have dimmed. Through its field research, analytical reports and advocacy, Crisis Group aims to identify ways to mitigate the damage of a hardening divide, inform policymakers on both sides of the island and regional actors about shared concerns, recommend ways to stop frictions from heightening further, and create mutual benefits.
UN diplomacy aimed at reunifying Cyprus has been drifting since talks broke down in 2017. The Secretary-General should appoint an envoy to draft a roadmap with sufficient incentives to bring both Greek and Turkish Cypriots back to the table.
Inflammatory rhetoric soared as Cyprus marked 50th anniversary of Turkish troop presence.
Anniversary of Turkish troop presence highlighted persistent gap between parties. “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (“TRNC”) and Republic of Cyprus (RoC) 20 July held separate ceremonies to mark 1974 arrival of Turkish soldiers in Cyprus. In “TRNC” ceremony, Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar reiterated “equal sovereignty and equal international status” must be granted to RoC and “TRNC” as condition for return to formal talks; Turkish President Erdoğan said federation was no longer possible and expressed support for international recognition of “TRNC”. In RoC commemoration, President Christodoulides denounced “barbaric Turkish invasion”, while Greek PM Mitsotakis expressed Greece’s “unwavering support” for unified, bizonal, bicommunal federation. Erdoğan 21 July accused Greece of planning to build naval base in Cyprus, saying Türkiye was ready to construct base and naval structures in north. “TRNC” Foreign Ministry 30 July said U.S. warships that arrived in RoC port of Limassol 27 July served “no purpose other than increasing tensions”, adding it viewed U.S.-RoC military cooperaion as “threat”. Earlier in month, Greek Defence Minister Nikos Dendias 15 July visited capital Nicosia, condemned “illegal presence for half a century of Turkish invasion army”; Turkish defence ministry 17 July called Dendias’ statement “false and slanderous”.
UN Secretary General personal envoy’s mandate expired. Mandate of UN Sec Gen personal envoy María Holguín Cuéllar 5 July ended; in parting letter, Holguín 7 July called for Cypriots to “think differently” to find solution to Cyprus problem. Greek and Cypriot media reports in July speculated Holguín was pursuing efforts to hold three- or five-member summit in Sept.
Greek and Turkish Cypriots have moved farther apart since a failed summit in 2017, hampering cooperation in several important matters and increasing tensions in the eastern Mediterranean. Hopes for reunifying Cyprus are faint at present, but the parties can still work toward more modest goals.
In mid-2020, Turkey and Greece put their Mediterranean fleets on high alert, dramatically raising tensions in their long-running dispute over air, water, rock and now seabed gas deposits as well. Talks have been frustrating but remain the best way to contain the risk of conflict.
Greece and Turkey have stepped back from the brink of military confrontation over gas exploration in disputed waters in the Mediterranean Sea. But trouble still looms. European leaders should welcome signs of conciliation from Athens and Ankara and nudge them toward talks.
To avoid another failed effort at federal reunification in the new round of Cyprus negotiations, all sides should break old taboos and discuss all possible options, including independence for Turkish Cypriots within the European Union.
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