CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Seven jailed Azerbaijani opposition members returned to court 22 June after boycotting hearings. Prisoners charged in connection with October 2003 post- election clashes; claim proceedings biased. Authorities continue to refuse permission for opposition to hold demonstrations in public.
Eight members of ETA arrested in French raids 17 June. Spanish PM Zapatero continued attempts to avoid Basque premier’s Plan Ibarretxe. Plan calls for greater autonomy, including separate courts, subject to Basque referendum; many fear this would lead to break-up of Spain.
Final decision to pass control of NATO’s Stabilisation Force in Bosnia (SFOR) to 7,000 EU troops (EUFOR) by end of 2004 announced at Istanbul summit 28 June. Bosnian membership in NATO’s Partnership for Peace program rejected. Key preconditions for NATO membership - full cooperation with the Hague war crimes tribunal and arrest of war crimes fugitives - not yet fulfilled. High Rep. Paddy Ashdown dismissed 60 officials 30 June, including parliamentary speaker Dragan Kalinic and interior minister Zoran Djeric, on grounds of ‘obstructionism and corruption’. Police failed 26-27 June to locate war crimes suspects Stojan Zupljanin or Savo Todovic. Bosnian Serb government commission admitted Serb forces murdered thousands of Muslims in Srebrenica in 1995 - previously denied.
President Vladimir Putin said Russia to build up forces in North Caucasus after major rebel attack in Ingushetia, which borders Chechnya, killed close to 100, including Ingush interior minister. Between 200 and 300 insurgents struck police stations and public buildings in 3 towns night of 21-22 June. Russia blamed Chechen rebels, but identity of attackers unclear: some reportedly spoke Ingush. In Chechnya, May assassination of President Akhmad Kadyrov has left power vacuum. Alu Alkhanov, Kadyrov’s relatively unknown interior minister, tapped as Moscow’s choice to replace him. Election set for 29 August.
UN Secretary General Kofi Annan blamed Greek Cypriot president Tassos Papadopolous for failure of peace referendum in internal UN report 2 June, mooting international recognition of Northern Cyprus. Greece, meanwhile, suggested financial assistance to Turkish Cyprus. UN peacekeeping force (UNFICYP) mandate extended further 6 months; status and structure of mission to be reviewed by Annan within 3 months.
Tensions rose between Tbilisi and South Ossetia, as President Mikheil Saakashvili, following successful May resolution of crisis with Ajara region, began manoeuvring to bring second of Georgia’s 3 breakaway regions (other is Abkhazia) under central control. Georgian troops cut off major smuggling route, heavily damaging on South Ossetian economy, while Tbilisi offered Ossetian citizens pensions and aid. South Ossetia alleged Tbilisi massing troops on internal border; Tbilisi said Russia supporting and equipping South Ossetia. In Abkhazia, several senior officials, including acting foreign minister and head of security services, resigned following assassination of opposition leader Garri Ayba. President Saakashvili’s party won sweeping victory - with over 77% of vote - in 20 June parliamentary election in Ajara.
Opposition newspaper Assandi-Times said edition of paper which appeared 2 June was forged, blamed presidential administration. Government hit back with lawsuit. Parliamentary elections set for 19 September.
International community policies and Kosovo Albanian expectations remain on collision course. PM Bajram Rexhepi threatened unilateral declaration of independence or referendum call if no progress toward resolving Kosovo’s final status by September 2005, while former leader of Kosovo Liberation Army, Hashim Thaci, voiced dissatisfaction with status quo. Serb teenager killed 5 June in apparent attempt to rekindle March violence. EU envoy to Macedonia, Søren Jessen- Petersen, named by UN to replace resigned Head of UN Mission in Kosovo Harri Holkeri.
For People Power opposition bloc announced former PM Kurmanbek Bakiev as group’s nominee for president, first official candidate in 2005 election. President Akayev, in power since 1990, has vowed not to run, but Constitutional Court said would examine whether he had legal right to seek further term. Opposition Ar-Namys party complained of increased harassment and arrest of local leader.
EU and Chisinau agreed 3-year Action Plan for increased cooperation, but settlement of conflict with breakaway Transdniestrian region remains elusive. Both sides reportedly amenable to federal solution, although Chisinau seeking asymmetric federation, while Tiraspol wants equal status. Latter skipped latest round of negotiations 23-24 June.
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