CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Debate intensified on decentralisation laws - last component of Ohrid peace deal and key condition before Macedonia’s aspirations to EU candidate status could be considered. Governing Social Democrats (SDSM) promised compromise with coalition partner Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) on decentralisation by 5 July.
Elections to European Parliament 10-13 June saw Protestant Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), opposed to power-sharing, top poll with 32% vote share, well ahead of more moderate Ulster Unionist Party. Sinn Féin (SF) replaced Social Democratic Labour Party as main party of nationalist community. Possible push for peace between SF and DUP, though SF called DUP conditions “unacceptable” 30 June.
After 18 months without head of state, Democratic Party candidate Boris Tadic won second round presidential election, beating Tomislav Nikolic of Serbian Radical Party. Tadic won 53.7%, Nikolic 45%, with surprisingly high voter turnout of approx. 49%. Oligarch candidate Bogoljub Karic’s surprisingly high first round showing (18.8%) makes him new force on Serbia’s political scene. Uncertain whether Tadic’s election will have impact on Serbia’s political course. Hague tribunal president Theodore Meron told UN Security Council 9 June Serbia-Montenegro shows no signs of cooperating. Milorad “Legija” Ulemek pleaded not guilty to all charges related to murder of PM Zoran Djindjic.
Talks on status of Russian troops concluded with deal signed 4 June by presidents Rakhmonov and Putin. Russian border troops guarding Tajik-Afghan frontier to stay until 2006 - not mid-2005 as expected - while Russia’s 201st infantry division to be given permanent basing rights. Russia will also assume control of Nurek space surveillance centre. In exchange, portion of Tajikistan’s US$300 million debt to be invested in Tajik energy industry.
Courts released Kurdish activist Leyla Zana 9 June amid claims Turkey now fully ready for EU membership. Leftist group detonated small bomb outside Hilton hotel Ankara 24 June, severely injuring 2. Three killed and 15 injured in later Istanbul blast ahead of NATO summit 28-29 June. Clashes between security forces and Kurdish rebels in southeast claimed at least 17 since 1 June end of unilateral ceasefire.
Government decree ending recognition of foreign diplomas in effect 1 June - likely to force resignations of best educated and further repress Russian- speaking population. Officials downplayed widespread criticism of law, saying only called for verification - not rejection - of foreign diplomas.
President Karimov hosted leaders of Russia and China for Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Tashkent 17-18 June, lashed out at West for offering “protection” to radical Islamist groups banned in Central Asia. Apparent tilt toward Russia and China follows heavy Western criticism of Uzbek rights abuses and lack of reform. Governor of Surkhandarya region sacked by Karimov 1 June, week after dismissal of governor of Andijan. Firings apparently part of broader struggle among elite to promote officials close to PM Shavkat Mirziyoyev. On positive note, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan welcomed Uzbek initiative to demine frontiers.
Continuing protests against government plans to export natural gas and cut spending. Two died in 1 June clashes between protesters and security forces. Vice minister of education Celestino Choque abducted for 6 hours in La Paz by striking teachers. Ayo Ayo town mayor, accused of corruption, kidnapped, tortured and killed by residents 15 June. Movement of the Landless and inhabitants of Ayo Ayo set up road blocks and announced establishment of “independent government of the new historic state”. Government commission sent to region unable to regain control.
President Uribe’s government offered to halt offensive operations against leftist National Liberation Army (ELN) if it calls unilateral ceasefire. FARC killed 34 coca farmers in northeastern region of Norte de Santander 15 June. Attack in retaliation to farmers’ support for right-wing paramilitaries. AUC paramilitaries agreed to confine themselves to rural areas starting 1 July in bid to advance demobilisation negotiations with government. Abducted former Colombian senator and 7 family members freed 1 June, removing last-minute obstacle to talks. Lower house of congress approved bill 17 June to allow Uribe to stand for second term in 2006. Legislation must pass further 4 rounds of voting in house and senate before approval.
Assembly of Organisation of American States (OAS) held in Quito 6-8 June. Meeting drew street protests and calls for uprising by Confederation of Indigenous People of Ecuador (CONAIE), which failed to materialise. President Lucio Gutierrez prepared to push through reforms of energy bill by setting 30- day deadline for debate. Gutierrez aims to increase private and foreign participation in state-operated oil fields with state participation reduced to 35%.
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