CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
UN troops headed by Brazil took over peacekeeping duties from U.S.-led multinational force 1 June; failure to disarm informal militias causing serious concern. Aid workers struggling to reach areas cut off by May floods, estimated to have killed 2,600 Haitians. In Port-au-Prince, over 5,000 supporters of ousted president Jean-Bertrand Aristide demonstrated 17 June for his return.
Shining Path rebels killed 4 in 3 ambushes in central region. Unrest resurfaced in border town of Ilave with protests against provisional mayor, accused of ineptness and links to predecessor, who was lynched by angry mobs. Mayor and councilmen taken hostage 18 June by leaders of popular movements in province of San Román.
President Hugo Chávez stepped back from brink of constitutional crisis by accepting recall referendum - set for 15 August - after opposition gathered 2.54 million signatures, surpassing 2.43 million (20% of electorate) required by constitution. Decision avoids direct confrontation with popular opposition; followed highly publicised talks between Chávez and OAS Secretary General Cesar Gaviria and former U.S. president Jimmy Carter. To win referendum opponents must match 3.76 million votes Chávez received in 2000 election. Opposition still concerned government may try to manipulate election process. Should Chávez lose recall before 19 August (completion of 4th year of 6-year term), presidential elections would be held within month. After 19 August, Chávez’s vice president, José Vicente Rangel, would serve remainder of Chávez’s term.
Nabil Sahrawi, leader of Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), killed in major operation east of Algiers 20 June. GSPC severely weakened after death of founder, Hassan Hattab, and Chadian capture of top Salafist Amari Saifi last month. Power plant blast 21 June initially thought accidental later claimed by GSPC as retaliation bombing. Editor of Le Matin newspaper jailed for 2 years 14 June: independent press facing crackdown since April reelection of President Bouteflika.
Quartet representatives meeting Taba 24 June welcomed Egyptian pressure for Palestinian security reform in return for security role in Gaza. Health fears for President Mubarak, 76, as underwent back surgery in Germany.
Tehran said would resume construction of centrifuges for nuclear program, after strongly worded International Atomic Energy Agency statement drafted by Britain, France and Germany “deplored” gaps in Iran’s cooperation. Situation becoming increasingly serious: U.S. seeking to establish timetable leading to possible UN Security Council action.
Coalition officially handed over power to interim Iraqi government 28 June, marking legal transfer of sovereignty and symbolic step forward for Iraq. Handover followed unanimous 8 June passing of UN Security Council resolution 1546 endorsing plan to hold elections by January 2005 and authorising Coalition forces to remain beyond 30 June. New PM Iyad Allawi assumed control after nomination - with American backing - by Interim Governing Council, circumventing selection process run by UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi. Top Shiite cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani gave new government cautious endorsement. Violence surged in run-up to handover, with coordinated attacks in 5 cities 24 June killing over 100. Security situation across Iraq remained unstable, with daily bombings, kidnappings and assassination attempts on Iraqi officials, along with strikes on oil infrastructure. U.S. continued hunt for top terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. NATO Istanbul summit 28 June resulted in vague pledge to help train Iraqi troops. 591 Coalition soldiers, including 526 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat operations on 1 May 2003.
Israeli cabinet approved watered-down version of PM Ariel Sharon’s Gaza Strip pullout plan 6 June. Plan calls for phased withdrawal but sets no firm deadline, and requires vote before each of 4 phases. First phase unlikely to be put to vote before March 2005. Israel negotiating with Egypt on possible security role for Cairo in Gaza following pullout. Egyptian involvement officially welcomed by Yasser Arafat, but denounced by militant groups in Gaza. Arafat reportedly set to appoint his interior minister, Taid Abdul Rahim, as head of security for Palestinian Authority. Israeli troops killed leader of al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades and 5 others in Nablus 26 June. Bribery charges against Sharon dismissed 15 June. Israeli high court ruled 30 June parts of controversial West Bank security wall illegal.
King Abdullah said country ready to help train Palestinian police in Gaza following proposed Israeli pullout.
Israeli warplanes struck Palestinian target deep in Lebanon 7 June, hours after rockets fired from Lebanese territory narrowly missed Israeli naval vessel. Sides also exchanged fire along border 20 June.
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