CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo

Growing instability North and South Kivu, eastern DR Congo, leading to 20,000 displaced over last month. Fighting broke out Bukavu 27 May between DRC army and faction loyal to ex-RCD Colonel Jules Mutebusi killing 45 including UN observer. UN bolstered security, sending 52 additional peacekeepers and confining RCD troops to barracks. 31 May 1,000 further renegade troops advanced to airport 35 km north of Bukavu before halting after call from DRC vice president and former RCD head Azarias Ruberwa. In separate violence 5 Congolese killed 7 May in raid by 350 Hutu Rwandan rebels on Kingi village. 4 Congolese soldiers killed by same forces 25 May. Rwanda threatened military action unless DRC and stretched UN peacekeeping operation (MONUC) re- establish control. DRC foreign minister accepted no current Rwandan involvement. Burundi stepped up border security with DRC on Rusizi river to prevent Rwandan Hutu infiltration. In positive development, UN-mediated talks in Ituri led to signing 17 May of commitment to peace and disarmament of 7 militia groups. Ruberwa claimed “end of war in Ituri”.

Ethiopia/Eritrea

Eritrea blamed Ethiopia and Sudan for bombing 25 May in Barentu, Eritrea, killing 5 civilians. In response to vigorous Eritrean-government criticism Major- General Robert Gordon, head of UN peacekeeping mission (UNMEE), expressed “genuine concern” 12 May for viability of UN mission given lack of progress on demarcation of 620-mile border, negotiation on status of disputed town of Badme and “deterioration” of local relationships. Eritrean President Afwerki dismissed need for UN special envoy, claiming Eritrean position binding and non-negotiable. Tensions remain high along temporary security zone, with Eritrean and U.S. claims of incursion by Ethiopian militia forces.

Guinea

UNHCR chief Ruud Lubbers said would end UN support for Sierra Leonean refugees in Guinea, expecting repatriation process to be complete by 30 June. Guinean government reiterated calls 5 May for Charles Taylor to stand trial. Politically-motivated legal proceedings continue against opposition leader Sidya Toure. Mano River Union leaders meeting in Conakry 21 May issued statement supportive of Ivoirian President Gbagbo.

Liberia

Volatility continued, including killing of U.S. Military Assessment employee 25 May. Doubts persist over willingness of militias to disarm. UN Mission to Liberia (UNMIL) discovered “high value” arms cache near Sierra Leone border 1 May. Monrovia riot by 500 ex-combatants quelled 18 May by UN peacekeepers. UNMIL claimed 35,000 combatants have now been disarmed. UN launched recruitment process for new police force. Meanwhile UN-backed Special Court for Sierra Leone ruled against former Liberian President Charles Taylor’s appeal not to be tried for war-crimes.

Nigeria

Significant deterioration in security situation with massacre of 600 Hausa and Fulani Muslims by local Tarok Christians in Plateau town of Yelwa 2 May. Massacre sparked further violence in Plateau, Kano and Kebbi states of central and northern Nigeria leading to displacement of 57,000. President Obasanjo declared parliament-backed state of emergency in Plateau in attempt to end “near mutual genocide” 18 May; sacked state governor and legislature prompting memories of military rule. Emergency rule not yet effective in preventing further violence in Plateau villages. Government-appointed governor General Chris Alli gave militia groups until 7 June to surrender illegal weapons. Opposition marches calling Obasanjo’s government “civilian dictatorship” disrupted by police 3 and 16 May.

Rwanda

Rwandan government threatened sending army back to DR Congo after 2 years’ absence if Kinshasa and MONUC prove unable to control Hutu Interamwhe rebels. UN Security Council condemned 14 May Rwandan incursions into DR Congo; denied by Rwanda. Leading Hutu militia leader Yussuf Munyakazi arrested in DR Congo and transferred to Rwandan war crimes tribunal’s (ICTR) detention centre in Tanzania to await trial on 1994 genocide charges, taking total number indicted by ICTR to 68. Government expressed concern at judge resignations, hinting at “external pressures”.

Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone voted in local elections for first time in 32 years 24 May, but turnout did not top 40%. Both sides suggested voter intimidation and malpractice, prompting 68 separate appeals. Former Liberian President Charles Taylor lost legal attempt 31 May to avoid UN- backed war-crimes trial.

Somalia

Reconciliation conference sponsored by IGAD (regional association of 7 East African states) of 40 Somali groups and representatives of neighbouring countries started Nairobi 21 May after earlier attendance and financial worries. Interim leader Hassan initially refused to attend, planning rival talks in Jowhar, north of Mogadishu. Progress stalled since 29 January. IGAD ministers set July as target for end of talks threatening “punitive measures” against foot-draggers. Fighting between rival Mogadishu militias killed 100; ended 31 May.

Sudan

On positive note, parties announced “major breakthrough” in discussions in Naivasha, Kenya in peace talks between southern SPLA rebels and government to end 21-year civil war. Sides signed key protocols on power-sharing and resolving disputes in 3 regions, paving way for comprehensive peace agreement in coming weeks or months. But situation in Darfur, western Sudan, continued to slide towards humanitarian disaster despite mobilisation of international concern. Over 1 million now displaced in Darfur. Sudanese government professed eagerness to find lasting solution 12 May, but blocked Darfur aid until 21 May as U.S. and international pressure increased. Access for aid workers continues to be impeded. Pledge to disarm Janjaweed militia unfulfilled as violence continued. 45 killed in village south of Nyala by militia 24 May. Onset of rainy season threatens to complicate aid effort with as many as 350,000 lives at risk. Current UN Security Council president finally moved to issue weak statement 26 May condemning government-supported militia attacks, demanding disarmament and accountability but falling short of suggesting international peace-enforcement. Sudan elected to UN Human Rights Commission prompting U.S. walk-out, but latter nevertheless took Sudan off list of states sponsoring terrorism.

Uganda

Ugandan government gunship raids against Sudan- based rebels have not stopped LRA terror in north Uganda. Pagak and Lukudi refugee camps attacked, killing over 70 and further displacing 10,000. Army responded with raid, claiming 10 rebels killed. Christian Aid report criticised Ugandan army’s prosecution of war suggesting corruption and half-heartedness; strongly denied by Ugandan government. Donor countries rejected Uganda’s 2004/5 budget citing scale and opacity of defence spending.

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