CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Filters

Africa

Zimbabwe

Ruling Zanu-PF tightened grip on parliament 18 May with disputed victory in Lupane, Matabeleland, nearing two thirds required for constitutional change. Opposition MDC claimed voter intimidation. Parliamentary brawl between opposition MP Roy Bennett and justice minister led to government-orchestrated demonstrations in Harare, culminating in attack on MDC headquarters 20 May, unchecked by police. Press intimidation continued with brief imprisonment of Standard editor Bornwell Chakaodza. Concerns grew that Zimbabwe’s failure to allow UN food assessment hides shortfalls intended for use as tool of political manipulation; fears Zanu-PF will bring forward March 2005 elections to October 2004 to capitalise.

Asia

Afghanistan

Fears of spring offensive by Taliban and other insurgent groups confirmed as attacks increased in south and east. Over 30 killed, including 2 UK election workers. UN voter registration continues to be delayed by violence. 1 Norwegian, 6 U.S. soldiers killed in separate attacks in Kabul, Helmand, Zabul and Uruzgan provinces. President Karzai negotiated with leaders of former Northern Alliance over key cabinet posts, in attempt to gain support prior to elections. Main phase of UN- backed disarmament, demobilisation, reintegration program started 17 May. To date 4,000 pieces of heavy weaponry registered. Government plans to disarm 40% of estimated 100,000 militiamen by end of June ahead of landmark September elections. But March 2004 agreement between UN and Afghan defence ministry to decommission specific militia units and downsize others meeting resistance from militia leaders in Kabul and provinces. U.S. launched 24 May review of detention centres following abuse allegations.

Bangladesh

Senior member of opposition Awami League (AL) party shot dead 7 May. Widespread protests and violence followed in Dhaka and Tongi, killing 2. Concerns raised by emergence of Islamist militant vigilante groups in north Bangladesh. AL blamed Islamist militants for bomb blast in northeast Muslim shrine that killed 3, injured 70, including British envoy Anwar Chowdhury.

China (internal)

3 Hong Kong radio hosts resigned in as many weeks, claiming pro-Beijing forces intimidating and threatening democracy activists.

India

Surprise victory by Sonia Gandhi’s Indian National Congress over governing coalition led by PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Transfer of power completed without major incidents. Gandhi declined PM post, handing to former finance minister Manmohan Singh. Gandhi elected leader of ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) of 11 parties; has support from another 10. Singh, India's first non-Hindu PM (Sikh), sworn in 22 May. Coalition’s "Common Minimum Programme" agenda, designed to balance growth with rural development, received mixed reception. Initial row over portfolios involving DMK party, powerful southern ally of Congress, largely resolved.

India-Pakistan (Kashmir)

Separatist violence continued. Mine blast killed 33 Indian soldiers and relatives in Indian-administered Kashmir 23 May; claimed by Hizbul Mujahideen, who lost senior commander in clash in outskirts of Srinagar 11 May. Kashmir's main separatist alliance, All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), called strike in Srinagar to mark anniversaries of killings of key Muslim cleric and separatist leader. Top APHC leader Moulvi Umar Farooq targeted by militants in grenade attack. Farooq was part of January delegation for talks with former Indian PM; new talks due in July. New India PM Manmohan Singh vowed to act against militants and cooperate with Pakistan over disputed region.

Indonesia

Martial law lifted in Aceh, replaced with ‘civil emergency’; no reduction of 40,000 troops. Military claimed it has killed 2,000 Free Aceh Movement (GAM) members and captured 3,000 since 19 May last year when offensive began. GAM released well known Indonesian cameraman 18 May, and around 150 other civilians, some of whom believed to be hostages; others had reportedly gone to GAM for protection. Ambon still tense after violence claimed 39 last month; bomb explosion 17 May, hours after separatist flags raised in Muslim area of city; explosions 23 and 25 May killed 1 injured 17. ICG's Sidney Jones to be effectively expelled 10 June with work permit not renewed, following complaints from director of State Intelligence Agency General A.M. Hendropriyono about critical ICG reports; considerable media attention generated.

Korean Peninsula

Generals from North and South Korea had first ever meeting 26 May, agreed to meet again 3 June. Six-party working groups started 12 May, ended with agreement for further discussions. Main stumbling block remains: U.S. seeking complete, verifiable, irreversible dismantlement (CVID), while North Korea insisting on ‘freeze’. International Atomic Energy Agency reportedly found evidence Libyan uranium came from North Korea; denied by Pyongyang. Japan summit 22 May focused on repatriation of abducted Japanese nationals.

Myanmar

Myanmar’s first step on “road map to democracy” inaugurated 17 May. Against widespread expectations, National Convention started without release of National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi or deputy chairman Tin Oo, who remain under house arrest. NLD members invited but party boycotted event. Karen National Union (KNU) also refused; criticised other ethnic organisations for participating in Convention. 17 armed groups with ceasefire agreements in place with Rangoon sent delegates. Myanmar’s ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) continued to attract international criticism. U.S. extended sanctions for another year. Amnesty International 18 May report accused Burma's military of severe rights' abuses against Muslim minority, including eviction from ancestral land, forced labour.

Nepal

Political chaos, Maoist violence, strikes, demonstrations continued. PM Surya Bahadur Thapa resigned 7 May amid mounting calls for restoration of democracy. 5 main opposition parties met King Gyanendra; failed to agree on replacement PM, vowed to continue ‘agitation’ campaign. Maoist attacks worsened throughout east and west leaving over 60 rebels and security forces dead. 30 May Kathmandu bus bomb killed 1, injured 21. Maoists reportedly abducted school children and teachers, called for mass school closures.

Subscribe to Crisis Group’s Email Updates

Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.