CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Sectarian violence resurfaced in Karachi: separate blasts in Shiite mosques killed at least 30, 7 and 31 May; pro- Taliban Sunni cleric, Mufti Nizamuddin Shamzai, shot dead 30 May; ensuing riots killed 3; 5 killed in by-election clashes mainly between armed militants belonging to Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) - key partner in ruling coalition - and opposition Islamic Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA); blast 26 May killed 1, injured 30, 2 days after police arrested 6 members of Harkat-ul Mujahideen al-Alami, group linked to al-Qaeda. Elsewhere, rockets fired at education minister Zobaida Jalal's residence in Quetta. Pakistan readmitted to Commonwealth despite lack of democratic reform - decision justified on grounds of democratic progress, President Musharraf’s peace steps with India. Talks on nuclear confidence-building measures postponed by new Indian government. Pakistan successfully test-fired ballistic missile 29 May capable of carrying nuclear warheads. President Musharraf and new Indian government quick to confirm commitment to peaceful resolution of outstanding issues. Musharraf vowed further action against al-Qaeda in South Waziristan province.
Unofficial election results put Fernando Poe Jr. behind incumbent President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, whose political allies gained control of House of Representatives and Senate. Final results delayed until mid-June. 10 May elections marred by violence and fraud accusations. Over 100 killed in 3- month run-up to poll. Senior Abbu Sayyaf leader, Usman Lidjal, arrested 21 May. 3 militants killed, 7 captured in raid to free hostages 26 May. 4 other hostages freed 24 May after ransom paid.
After months of political turmoil peace process remains stalled. Norwegian envoy Erik Solheim met with government, Tamil Tigers (LTTE) and President Kumaratunga, but no date set to restart talks. New government wants to discuss final settlement to end war, while LTTE want their Interim Self-Governing Authority Proposal, submitted in October 2003, to be implemented before talks begin. People's Liberation Front (JVP) opposes devolution of power to LTTE, controls over third of minority government's seats. Sporadic violence continued in northeast killing at least 15. Tamil leader Karuna still on run after splitting from main rebel group in March.
Newly re-elected President Chen Shui-bian sworn in for second term 20 May. In widely-anticipated inauguration speech, took conciliatory tone but angered Beijing by refusing to acknowledge "one China" principle. Bejiing had raised rhetoric in lead-up to inauguration, saying Chen's pro- independence stance risks war. Recount completed of ballots from 29 March election, which Chen won by less than 30,000 votes. Results not expected for weeks, but in any case unlikely to affect election outcome.
Blasts 16 May hit 3 Buddhist temples in Narathiwat province in restive south; policeman shot dead 7 May. Thai government agreed to talk to Muslim separatist umbrella group, Bersatu, blamed for violence in south. Group’s leader, Wan Abdul Kadir Che Man, denied movement was behind 28 April attacks, in which police and soldiers killed 108 militants, or January raid on army camp in Narathiwat, in which almost 400 guns stolen. Thai Buddhist beheaded reportedly in retaliation for arrests of Malays in connection to southern violence.
Dili took over responsibility for defence and internal policing 19 May. UN declared 12-month "consolidation phase" during which peacekeepers can be used in extraordinary circumstances. Security Council cut UN peacekeepers from 3000 to 700; gave 6-month mandate. Nervousness about ability of indigenous forces to handle job alone, especially in border areas where militia activity reported in recent months.
PM Fatos Nano met Greek counterpart, who expressed support for Albanian efforts towards Euro-Atlantic structures. Albania hopes Stabilization and Association Agreement with EU will be signed in early 2005; clear timetable for NATO membership to be set up at June Istanbul summit.
Following weeks of protests against President Robert Kocharian - and 13 April police crackdown on demonstrators - opposition's momentum appears to have stalled. Movement's leaders announced 2-week postponement of demonstrations 21 May to reassess strategy.
Tenth anniversary of ceasefire between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces passed 12 May, with solution as distant as ever.
Preliminary hearings underway in trial of 7 prisoners arrested for alleged role in inciting October post- election violence. Prisoners said court biased and boycotted hearings. Opposition Musavat party activist Seyidali Mamedov arrested 2 May - also on charges related to October riots.
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