CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Pro-Kremlin Chechen president Akhmad Kadyrov assassinated 9 May in bomb attack at Grozny stadium. Radical field commander Shamil Basayev claimed responsibility, though conspiracy theories rife. New elections set for 29 August. PM Sergei Abramov acting as head of state - not expected to run in elections. Kadyrov's 27-year-old son and chief of security forces, Ramzan, named deputy PM, but said will not contest constitutional age limit prohibiting presidential candidates under 30.
Campaigning in full swing prior to 13 June presidential election; frontrunner Tomislav Nikolic of ultra-right wing Serbian Radical Party (SRS). 2 main challengers -- Boris Tadic and Dragan Marsicanin. Nikolic calling for resignation of PM Vojislav Kostunica and new parliamentary elections. Serbian parliament unlikely to meet 3 June World Bank deadline for budget readjustments, putting at risk renegotiated World Bank loan and assistance from EU, EBRD and IMF. Foreign Minister Draskovic survived no-confidence vote in parliament. His party, Serbian Renewal Movement, repeated threat to withdraw from government unless amendments to Criminal Procedures Act adopted. South Serbia's ethnic Albanians formed ‘Consensus Council’ 10 May aimed at uniting supporters of secession and pragmatists who accept integration into Serbia. Seen as pre-cursor to Albanian National Council and could alarm Serbs. Hague Tribunal sent complaint to UN Security Council over lack of cooperation from Belgrade. Dusko Jovanovic, editor of Montenegrin conservative daily Dan, shot dead 27 May.
Violence resurfaced in southeast. At least 12 rebels, 8 security personnel killed in clashes or landmine blasts. Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), now known as Kongra-Gel (Kurdistan People's Congress), declared end to unilateral ceasefire after recent violence. British PM Tony Blair visited Ankara 17 May, discussed security, reforms and EU membership.
President Saparmurat Niazov rescinded decree criminalising unregistered religious activity, but move unlikely to diminish widespread and systematic persecution of religious minorities.
Government increasing pressure on opposition activists and international NGOs. Following last month's closure of Open Society Institute's Tashkent office, authorities warned 3 other NGOs to stop supporting unregistered opposition movements. Members of 2 such groups, Erk Democratic Party and Berlik movement, reportedly arrested in recent days.
Future of President Mesa remains inextricably linked to controversial plans to export Bolivian gas: referendum on issue set for 18 July. Situation in capital La Paz extremely volatile with almost daily marches, demonstrations.
Wave of attacks in north killed 21, wounded over 100 as leftist FARC rebels marked 40th anniversary. Senior FARC commander Ricardo Palmera sentenced to 35 years in prison for kidnapping, rebellion. Suspected paramilitaries killed 11 alleged collaborators with leftist rebels. Leaders of AUC paramilitary group agreed to remain in rural area with OAS observers while negotiations continue with government.
Former president Leonel Fernandez scored resounding victory over incumbent, Hipolito Mejia, in 16 May election, receiving 57% of votes. Election seen as largely fair, but voting marred by polling station shoot-out between supporters of Fernandez and Mejia, which left 3 dead. Fernandez must now move to reverse country's economic slide, made more difficult by devastating floods leaving hundreds dead and at least 13,000 homeless.
Andean (Peru, Colombia, Ecuador) free trade talks with U.S. began 18 May amid anti-globalisation protests. Opposition and indigenous Pachakutik movement called for President Gutierrez's resignation.
UN peacekeeping mission set to take over from U.S.-led multinational force 1 June. Headed by Brazil, with contributions from Chile, Argentina, and 10 other countries, force to include over 8,000 troops and military police. Deployment intended to help disarm population, reform police, and establish rule of law, but mission complicated by widespread crime and gang-related violence, along with devastating flooding that has left hundreds dead. Police broke up large 18 May rally by supporters of ousted president Jean-Bertrand Aristide, who claim persecution by interim government. Aristide arrived South Africa 31 May from Jamaica; said will stay until able to return to Haiti.
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