CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Unrest in southern town of Ilave subsided after deal with government. Security forces to be reduced, community grievances addressed. Interior Minister Rospigliosi forced to resign after failure to end 3 weeks of violence, including lynching of mayor. Coca growers continued to demonstrate, clash with police in Tingo Maria. Anti-government strike in Cusco 27 May killed 2 when bus hit road block set up by demonstrators. Protests continued in Lima prompting President Toledo to miss EU-Latin America leaders summit. President Toledo's approval rating reportedly down to 6%. Peru pressed Japan for response to extradition request for former President Fujimori.
Opposition claims sufficient signatures revalidated to secure 2.43 million required for recall referendum of President Hugo Chavez; awaiting National Electoral Commission (CNE) determination 4 June: significant unrest likely whichever way decision goes. Chavez supporters claim fraud and failure of revalidation. Over 100 suspected Colombian paramilitaries accused by government of assassination plot arrested, along with ex-Venezuelan military officers. Confusion surrounds affair. Plot denounced by opposition, seen by latter as government attempt to divert attention from referendum issue.
Chadian MDJT rebels claimed to hold Algerian-born Amari Saifi, leader of radical Salafist Islamic GSPC organisation. Saifi’s al-Qaeda affiliated organisation opposes Algeria’s secular government; was responsible for 2003 kidnapping of 32 European tourists. GSPC killed 2 Algerian soldiers 18 May and wounded 13 others in roadside explosion at Setif, eastern Algeria.
20 protesters injured in clashes with police during demonstrations against U.S. policies in Iraq. King said shared protesters' anger, sacked interior minister.
President Mubarak held talks with Palestinian PM on proposed Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, strongly criticising recent Israeli army incursions into Rafah near Egyptian border. Egyptian security chief suggested Egypt could play security role in evacuated Gaza. Domestically, 54 members of Muslim Brotherhood arrested 18 May on treason charges. Chances of early repeal of Egypt’s 1981 Emergency Law faded after state- backed National Council for Human Rights failed to give support.
Tehran submitted second "complete" dossier to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) 21 May, stating, as with first submission October 2003, that dossier was full account of its past and present nuclear programs. But report to be submitted by IAEA president Mohammed ElBaradei says numerous questions remain - progress unlikely before IAEA's 14 June board meeting. Tehran saw large demonstrations protesting U.S. actions in Iraq, especially in Shiite holy cities of Najaf and Karbala.
U.S. and Britain tabled draft UN Security Council resolution calling for transfer of full sovereignty to Iraq on 30 June and authorising U.S.-led force to remain for initial 1-year period. Some countries, including France and Germany, concerned by absence of date for Coalition's withdrawal and lack of detail on status and powers of U.S.-led forces vis-a-vis Iraqi government. Similar concerns raised by members of Interim Governing Council (IGC). Resolution unlikely to be finalised before report of UN special envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, expected early June. Process of selecting new interim government proceeding; IGC candidates Ayad Allawi and Ghazi al-Yawer designated PM and president, respectively. Situation on ground remains grim, with violence continuing in several areas. Izzadine Saleem, head of IGC, killed in Baghdad suicide attack 17 May. Fighting continued between Coalition forces and followers of radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, leaving dozens of insurgents dead and damaging Imam Ali Mosque, Shiites' holiest shrine. Sporadic fighting followed 27 May ceasefire. U.S. and Iraqi troops raided offices of IGC member Ahmed Chalabi 20 May, suggesting he passed secrets to Iran. Raid marked sea- change in Washington's support for Chalabi, who had been Pentagon's favourite to lead country. Support for Coalition continued to fall with publication of new photos depicting abuse in Abu Ghraib prison. 544 Coalition soldiers, including 487 Americans, and thousands of Iraqis killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat operations on 1 May 2003.
Israeli army, citing need to flush out militants and destroy tunnels used to transport arms, launched massive incursion into Gaza Strip, leaving over 40 dead and 2,000 homeless. Raid prompted strong international criticism and UN Security Council resolution condemning Israel. Israeli PM Ariel Sharon presented amended Gaza pullout plan to cabinet 30 May for approval, but after heated debate, adjourned meeting without decision. New plan calls for phased military withdrawal and evacuation of 21 Jewish settlements in Gaza. Likud party had rejected earlier draft in 2 May referendum. Palestinian PM Ahmed Qurei gave cautious endorsement to plan, saying withdrawal was opportunity for movement towards wider peace agreement. Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman said 24 May Cairo prepared to play security role in Gaza. Sharon given new political life with reports that Israeli attorney general will not indict him on corruption charges. Senior Hamas leader killed in Israeli airstrike 30 May.
On visit to Washington, King Abdullah secured assurances from President Bush that U.S. would not prejudice outcome of final negotiations between Israel and Palestinians. In April, Bush had said Israel could not be expected to give up all settlements or accept return of Palestinian refugees, sparking outrage in Arab world and causing Abdullah to abruptly cancel earlier trip.
Soldiers in Beirut killed 5 and injured dozens during protests against high fuel prices and poor state of economy. Unrest worst in decade. Series of clashes along Israeli border 5-7 May, as Hizbollah guerrillas fired shells into northern Israel following Israeli overflights of Lebanese territory. Violence left 1 Israeli soldier dead and 5 wounded. Negotiations on second round of German-mediated prisoner exchange reportedly nearing breakthrough.
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