CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Bangladesh

Opposition Awami League backed down from pledge to unseat government by 30 April. Police arrested thousands of protesters amidst violent clashes in capital; PM Khaleda Zia halfway through 5-year term. Her Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) claimed to have details of 'Awami conspiracy to destabilise the country'. Unrest by citizens seen as backlash against widespread corruption and extortion.

China (internal)

In blow for Hong Kong pro-democracy activists and "one country, two systems" principle, Beijing committee proclaimed central government has sole authority to amend HK political structure, and ruled out full elections for Hong Kong in 2007-08.

India

Polling for parliamentary elections began 20 April; due for completion 10 May, counting beginning 13 May. PM Vajpayee's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and allies campaigned on platform of peace and prosperity. Apparent strong gains by Sonia Gandhi's opposition Congress Party. Over 30 killed in election related violence, lower than in previous elections. Maoist rebels blamed for 8 April mine blasts that killed 26 police in eastern state of Jharkhand. Rebels fighting Indian rule in northeast rejected offer by PM Vajpayee to hold talks to resolve decades-old insurgency. United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) accused New Delhi of plundering region's mineral resources, neglecting its economy and said only referendum on independence of tribal and ethnic groups could end hostilities.

India-Pakistan (Kashmir)

Indian elections held in Jammu and Kashmir marred by violence. Grenade attack on rally of ruling People's Democratic Party 8 April killed 11. At least 5 more killed in separate attacks in Srinagar. Kashmiri separatist politicians and rebels rejected election, called for poll boycott. Office of main opposition Congress Party attacked.

Indonesia

President Chen Shui-bian, re-elected by wafer-thin margin in 29 March election, said would push ahead with plans for new constitution in 2006, angering China, which sees plan as step toward independence. U.S. cautioned Chen against aggressive pro-independence stance. Recount of election results demanded by opposition Kuomintang party likely to take place mid-May.

Korean Peninsula

Low-level 6-party talks to begin in Beijing 12 May to prepare for further talks in June. U.S. vice president Cheney called on Beijing to recognise that evidence from Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan confirms Pyongyang already has nuclear weapons: China had cast doubt on U.S. and South Korean claims that North Korea was developing uranium weapon. Kim Jong-il travelled to Beijing 19 April for talks with Hu Jintao: China reportedly urged Jong-il to soften stance towards U.S. to break impasse over ending Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions. Massive rail explosion, apparently accidental, shook Pyongyang into asking for international aid.

Myanmar

Early indications pointed towards Aung San Suu Kyi's imminent release before constitutional convention due to start 17 May - 2 top National League for Democracy (NLD) members released 13 April, NLD headquarters unlocked by military junta 17 April. But she and NLD deputy chairman Tin Oo remain under house arrest. Yangon pulled out of 'Bangkok Process' international talks on prospects for reform scheduled for April 29-30: talks postponed.

Nepal

Triangular conflict between king, political parties and Maoists continued. King Gyanendra attempted talks with political parties in bid to end stand-off: rejected by 5 main parties but Gyanendra met former PM Sher Bahadur Deuba, whom he sacked in 2002 for incompetence. Demonstrations started 1 April to press Gyanendra to fire royalist PM and form all-party government. Political parties vowed to continue protesting until king appoints their nominee as prime minister or revives parliament. Ban on all political gatherings in Kathmandu 8 April led to crackdown on protestors and thousands of arrests (including former PM Deuba). Despite ban, demonstrations continued daily. Maoist rebels called for joint movement with constitutional parties 21 April. Previously political parties have ruled out alliance with Maoists unless they renounce violence. Maoists stormed 2 police posts in separate attacks 5 and 8 April, killing 11 police officers.

Pakistan

Tribal leaders accused of sheltering al-Qaeda members in Pakistan's South Waziristan province given amnesty. Next day Islamabad released 50 tribesmen who were among 163 militants arrested in March. Foreign militants given 1-week extension on 30 April deadline to 'register'. Controversial bill creating national security council (NSC) and affording military permanent role in Pakistan's governance passed 14 April. Opposition walked out in protest. President Musharraf insisted NSC will be consultative body only.

Philippines

Campaigning continued ahead of 10 May presidential elections. President Arroyo and Fernando Poe Jr. equal in polls. Third-ranked former education secretary Raul Roco pulled out for health reasons. Government and communist National Democratic Front (NDF) met for third round of formal talks 26-29 April. Three female suspected members of communist New People's Army (NPA) released 21 April as part of confidence building plan to free 32 political prisoners by 4 May. Three NPA killed 25 April in clash with troops in southern Mindanao island, while 6 Abu Sayyaf members, including senior leader Hamsiraji Sali, killed in clash with Philippine troops on southern Basilan island 8 April. Ten Abu Sayyaf suspects remained at large after southern jailbreak. Talks with Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) expected to resume in Kuala Lumpur in May.

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