CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Sri Lanka

President Kumaratunga's United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) emerged 8 seats short of absolute majority in 2 April parliamentary elections. Veteran politician Mahinda Rajapakse appointed PM. Ministries of defence (incl. responsibility for peace process), constitutional affairs and education retained by Kumaratunga. Early stand-off between government and new coalition partner, leftist People's Liberation Front (JVP), resolved. JVP hold 39 of 105 seats won by UPFA in 2 April polls. Government reportedly going ahead with proposals to replace presidential system of government with parliamentary one, and change electoral system - despite losing key post of speaker of parliament by single vote. Norway to resume mediator role; delegation scheduled to meet Kumaratunga 2 May, and leader of LTTE political wing, Sinniah Paramu Tamilselvan, 3 May. Violent clashes between breakaway rebel commander Karuna's forces and main LTTE killed at least 9; Karuna since disappeared. Further fighting 26 April killed 7. Over 1,000 child soldiers reportedly released or demobilised in April. Argument between Sinhalese and Tamils became full-scale riot 28 April in Central region.

Taiwan Strait

President Chen Shui-bian, re-elected by wafer-thin margin in 29 March election, said would push ahead with plans for new constitution in 2006, angering China, which sees plan as step toward independence. U.S. cautioned Chen against aggressive pro-independence stance. Recount of election results demanded by opposition Kuomintang party likely to take place mid-May.

Thailand

In one of bloodiest days in modern Thai history 107 rebels killed, 17 arrested and 5 security officials killed as militants, mostly armed with machetes, battled policemen and soldiers in Pattani, Yala and Songkhla southern provinces 28 April: PM Thaksin Shinawatra blamed drug-crazed "bandits" and supportive local politicians, dismissing claims that religious or separatist ideology lay at root of violence. In earlier 22 April attacks 1 soldier and village chief killed and 50 public buildings, including 15 schools, set ablaze across Narathiwat and Yala provinces; 10 youths arrested. Troops deployed to south to protect rail workers after 4 separate incidents killed 2. Thai court issued arrest warrants for 4 policemen linked to disappearance of Somchai Neelapaijit, prominent Muslim lawyer for suspected Jemaah Islamiah militants.

Timor-Leste

Continuing concern over possible militia incursions from West Timor. Next UN resolution on security situation due 10 May.

Europe & Central Asia

Albania

President of Albania paid first ever official visit by Albanian head of state to Kosovo, meeting with UN Special Representative for Kosovo, Harri Holkeri, 22 April.

Armenia

Dozens injured and over 100 arrested 13 April as police used water canons, batons, and stun grenades to disperse demonstrators calling for resignation of President Robert Kocharian. Demonstrations steadily gathered momentum in recent weeks: over 10,000 people turned out 9 April, first anniversary of Kocharian's inauguration. Opposition led jointly by Stepan Demirchian, chief of Justice Bloc and runner up to Kocharian in disputed 2003 election, Artashes Geghamian, leader of National Accord Party, and former PM Aram Sargisian. Group began boycotting parliamentary sessions in February, and had set 12 April deadline for parliament to pass law allowing no-confidence referendum on president - as stipulated by constitutional court following 2003 election. Protests continued throughout month as government cracked down on opposition. Public particularly angered by widespread reports that police stood by as unknown assailants beat group of journalists during 5 April demonstration.

Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict

Some movement in peace process as Armenian president Kocharian and Azerbaijani president Aliyev met in Warsaw 28 April; foreign ministers expected to meet in May; and U.S. named Steven Mann, formerly state department special envoy to Caspian, as new co-chair of OSCE Minsk Group, replacing Rudolf Perina.

Azerbaijan

No movement on detention of dozens of opposition activists arrested following October 2003 elections.

Bosnia And Herzegovina

Bosnian leaders called on war crimes suspects to voluntarily surrender to The Hague tribunal. Failed attempt to capture indicted war criminals Milan and Sredoje Lukic 18 April killed 1; 2 members of Special Police Force suspended. High Rep. Ashdown had previously suspended funding to ruling Serb Democratic Party (SDS) for failing to cooperate with tribunal.

Chechnya (Russia)

Separatist president Aslan Maskhadov lost third major ally in 2 months as Shaa Turlaev, head of Mashkadov's personal guard, reportedly surrendered to Russian officials. Assassination attempt on president of neighbouring republic of Ingushetiya failed 6 April; Chechen warlord Shamil Basayev claimed responsibility. UN Commission on Human Rights voted against EU-sponsored resolution condemning Russian abuses in Chechnya.

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