CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Tajikistan

In anticipation of February 2005 general elections, 3 opposition parties formed coalition to challenge presidential party's grip on parliament. Alliance members said goal to ensure transparent elections. New opposition Taraqqiyot party appealed to Supreme Court after justice ministry rejected registration attempt. Leader and several members of previously unknown Islamist group, Bayat, arrested in Isfara, in northern Tajikistan - accused of murdering Baptist minister and attacking pro- government imams. Commander of Russian border guards said Tajik troops to take control of frontier with Afghanistan by May 2005.

Turkmenistan

President Saparmurat Niazov fired ministers of finance and economy, along with top national bank executives, in political crackdown ostensibly aimed at combating corruption. UN Commission on Human Rights approved strongly-worded resolution condemning Turkmenistan's human rights record. Country remains among world's most totalitarian states.

Uzbekistan

Government officials said outbreak of violence in Tashkent and Bukhara 28 March-1 April, which left 47 dead, including 10 policemen, work of international terrorists linked to al Qaeda, but targeting of police suggests perpetrators homegrown. Authorities earlier blamed radicals affiliated with banned Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir. Open Society Institute, prominent international NGO headed by George Soros, forced to close operations in Uzbekistan after re-registration attempt rejected by justice ministry. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development scaled back lending after review of Uzbek progress on reform benchmarks showed poor results and continued human rights abuses.

Latin America & Caribbean

Bolivia

Government plans to export natural gas causing significant unrest. President Carlos Mesa reshuffled cabinet 13 April to strengthen support base. Some 20,000 protesters demanded his resignation in demonstrations in capital La Paz 22 April, just 6 months after last president toppled. Trade unions threatened continued protests. Referendum to be held in May on direct election of currently appointed governors in effort to respond to demands for greater decentralisation, and 18 July on plans to export gas.

Colombia

President Uribe proposed amended legislation for demobilisation of right-wing paramilitaries; to require jail time for worst offenders. Former leader of AUC paramilitary group, Carlos Castaño, missing after gun battle with rival paramilitaries killed number of bodyguards; later reported dead. Former general threatening to expose links between army and leftist FARC rebel group. Congress considering whether to amend constitution to allow Uribe to run for second term.

Dominican Republic

Presidential elections 16 May. Polling shows gap between President Hipolito Mejia and former president Leonel Fernandez closing, but Fernandez still ahead by double-digit numbers.

Ecuador

President Lucio Gutierrez increasingly politically isolated, and facing calls to step down. Indigenous parties planning massive protest march 1 May.

Haiti

Slowly regaining degree of stability, but many armed rebels still roaming countryside. UN Security Council approved new stabilisation mission of 6,700 troops and 1,600 police and experts to replace current U.S.-led force of 3,600 on 1 June. Rebel commander Louis-Jodel Chamblain, former paramilitary FRAPH leader sentenced to life imprisonment in absentia, surrendered to police 22 April amid concern whether deal made to pardon him. Lack of disarmament of rebels and Aristide military drawing business sector concern.

Peru

Claimed leader of rebel group Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) announced armed struggle would commence if government did not provide adequate response. Congress approved murder charge against ex-president Fujimori for decade-old killing. Indigenous protesters beat allegedly corrupt local mayor of Ilave to death after he refused to step down.

Venezuela

Opposition, under protest, agreed to revalidate 1 million disputed signatures for recall referendum on President Chavez 27-31 May with international monitoring. National Electoral Council (CNE) to announce 4 June if referendum to proceed. Risk of violent protests whichever way decision goes. Currently 1.9m votes validated, with 2.4m needed to trigger referendum - which would be held 8 August. Parliament passed law to increase number of Supreme Court judges from 20 to 32, with new judges to be appointed by Chavez, weeks before court considers opposition appeal against rejected referendum signatures.

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