CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Cyprus

Internationally recognised Greek Cypriot south joined EU 1 May. Cyprus remains divided and militarised following Greek Cypriot rejection (75.8%) of UN Secretary General Annan's plan for reunification. Turkish Cypriots voted (64.9%) in favour despite opposition of President Rauf Denktash. His Greek-Cypriot counterpart Tassos Papadopoulos' successful nationalist stance against plan led to international consternation. EU agreed to allow agricultural produce in north to be sent across 'green line' to Greek Cypriot south – and rest of EU - without restrictions or tariffs. EU Enlargement Commissioner Guenter Verheugen pledged economic support for Turkish north.

Georgia

Civil conflict potentially imminent as standoff between President Mikheil Saakashvili and authoritarian leader of Ajara region Aslan Abashidze worsened. Saakashvili said Tbilisi not afraid to use force to "liberate" Ajarans from Abashidze's "criminal" rule, as Georgian military began exercises 30 April at Black Sea port of Poti, 30km from Ajara. Abashidze ordered mobilisation of forces in response to growing tensions, and Ajaran police used truncheons to suppress anti-Abashidze protest 30 April in Batumi. Central Election Commission (CEC) annulled 28 March parliamentary election results from 2 districts of Ajara after declaring them fraudulent and abandoning plans to repeat vote. Results leave Abashidze's Revival Party severely weakened, with only 6 seats in 150-seat parliament.

Kazakhstan

President Nursultan Nazarbayev vetoed controversial draft media law after Constitutional Council said bill violated Kazakh constitution. Critics said law's strict media licensing rules would have limited freedom of speech.

Kosovo

NATO reviewing peacekeeping mission after 17-18 March violence. Blame ascribed variously to UNMIK, KFOR, Kosovo media, politicians and international policies. International prosecutor in Kosovo found no evidence Serbs responsible for deaths of 3 Albanian children who drowned in Ibar River, which led to wave of Albanian violence against Serbs 17 March. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan met 27 April with Kosovo President Rugova, who pressed for immediate independence. General boycott of all Kosovo institutions by Serb politicians continued, in part to protest ineffective response by the international community to March events. Jordanian UN police officer opened fire on convoy carrying international prison officers in Mitrovica 17 April. In ensuing gunfight Jordanian and 3 U.S. officers killed, 11 injured.

Kyrgyzstan

Justice ministry quashed rumours that jailed opposition leader Feliks Kulov to be released 1 June. Rumour started by Kulov aide.

Moldova

Negotiations between central government, officials from separatist Transdniestria region, and OSCE, Ukrainian, and Russian mediators resumed 26-28 April in Tiraspol after 5-month hiatus. Next round scheduled to take place in Chisinau 25-26 May.

North Macedonia

PM Branko Crvenkovski won second round of presidential elections. Inconclusive first round led to final 28 April vote between Crvenkovski of Social Democratic Union (SDSM) and Sasko Kedev of conservative opposition Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization (VMRO- DPMNE). Crvenkovski won with 63%, and turnout passed required 50%. Kedev demanded re-vote alleging election fraud. European election observers said vote met international democratic standards, despite some "serious" irregularities. Stabilization and Association Agreement between EU and Macedonia came into effect 1 April.

Northern Ireland (UK)

Financial sanctions to be imposed on Sinn Fein and Progressive Unionist Party after Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC) linked them to paramilitary activity by IRA and Ulster Volunteer Force. Political talks involving all Northern Ireland parties and British and Irish prime ministers postponed. Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams met Tony Blair and rejected IMC conclusions and called on British government to re-focus on peace process.

Serbia

Government increasingly unstable and reliant on Seselj's Serbian Radical Party (SRS) and Milosevic's Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS). Presidential elections scheduled for 13 June, this time without 50% voter turnout requirement which had invalidated 2 previous elections. Parliament adopted government's plan for resolution of Kosovo by creation of 5 ethnic Serbian cantons. Serbia reached tentative agreement with IMF and World Bank contingent on parliament reducing budget deficit by a third by June deadline. IMF support and certain World Bank and EU programmes on hold until approved. Attacks on ethnic minorities in northern province of Vojvodina jumped sharply. Reportedly more ethnically- motivated attacks since March than in entire period following Milosevic's ouster.

Spain

Eighteen charged - 14 Moroccans, 2 Indians, Syrian and Spaniard - in connection to 11 March attacks that killed 191. Spanish agent and 7 suspected terrorists killed in 3 April suicide blast.

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