CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Ombudsman Commission started legal action to force Somare government to recall parliament adjourned in January (to avoid vote of no confidence).
Clashes on southern island of Jolo between marines and Abu Sayyaf guerrillas claimed at least 10 lives 7 March. Fernando Poe Jr to run in 10 May presidential elections after Supreme Court ruled him natural-born Filipino. Malaysian ceasefire observers started inspections of Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) bases as one of preconditions for resumption of formal peace talks. Malaysian observers arrived shortly after army troops shelled rebel positions in 1 area due for inspections. Shelling came after MILF rebels ambushed soldiers chasing gunmen who kidnapped and killed 4 farmers in western Mindanao. Ferry disaster 26 February left 119 people confirmed dead or missing. Four Abu Sayyaf members arrested 30 March, including man who claims responsibility for ferry explosion, and explosives seized; President Arroyo claimed her government had foiled “Madrid-level” terror attack in Manila.
Country braced for 2 April general election violence following President Kumaratunga and PM Wickremesinghe feud. Split between Tamil commanders added to tensions. Eastern Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) leader Karuna (V. Muralitharan) accused LTTE leadership of discriminating against Tamils in east – dismissed by northern leadership 6 March. Karuna controls approx. 6,000 fighters compared to 11,000 for LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran. Tamil National Alliance (TNA) candidate and supporter of Karuna shot dead, leading government to deploy troops as precaution. Norwegian peace envoy Erik Solheim reviewed Oslo-arranged truce 15 March. Both Prabhakaran and Karuna said they would abide by it. Kumaratunga pledged to abolish the presidency should her United People’s Freedom Alliance win power, with her assuming prime minister’s position. Also indicated she would remain defence minister, one of 3 ministries she took control of in November, regardless of election outcome.
President Chen Shui-bian’s narrow victory - by approximately 29,000 votes out of more than 13 million cast in disputed 20 March presidential election looked increasingly secure after opposition Kuomintang party (KMT) dropped demand that military be given additional opportunity to vote. Opposition critics had said state of alert following shooting of Chen prevented many in military from voting: denied by authorities. Assassination attempt, in which both Chen and VP Annette Lu lightly wounded by gunfire, took place day before election. KMT leader Lien Chan said sympathy vote cost him presidency, and demanded recount: expected to go ahead in early April but unlikely to alter result.
Unrest in south continued. Security alert after theft of over 1000 kgs of explosives from quarry in Yala province 31 March. Two policemen and village headman killed week after arsonists set fire to more than 36 buildings in region. Government made plans to launch southern development infrastructure program in attempt to end violence. Prominent Muslim human rights lawyer Somchai Neelapaijit defending 5 Thai Muslims accused in January attacks disappeared 12 March. More than 50 people have died in 2 months of unrest.
East Timor welcomed proposals to form new foreign police unit to boost security after current UN mission is scaled down in May. Australia, U.S. and Britain suggested creation of 125-strong armed emergency response police unit. Prosecutors intensified push for arrest of former Indonesian Defense Forces (TNI) commander General Wiranto, citing evidence he failed to prevent crimes against humanity in 1999.
Opposition leader Sali Berisha promised new protests after February demonstrations. Controversy grew over attempted registration of Islamic party; religiously and ethnically based parties are illegal.
Armenian and Azerbaijani officials resumed “did so, did not” debate over whether negotiators agreed on Nagorno-Karabakh settlement during 2001 Florida peace talks.
Court ordered opposition newspaper Yeni Musavat to pay libel damages worth US$150,000 to various political figures. Paper says fines are attempt to muzzle dissent.
Authorities initially blamed Basque separatists ETA for Madrid bombings, who denied having any role. Generally accepted more likely to have been Islamist extremists. See ‘Spain’ below.
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