CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
First state-level defence minister finally selected 15 March. Nikola Radovanovic’s appointment paves way for Bosnia’s membership in NATO’s Partnership for Peace program. Month-long political crisis due to HDZ/SDA rift overcome. Massive opposition demonstrations in Republika Srpska 23 March protesting against government and recent events in Kosovo. Bosnia plans to send 36-strong demining team to Iraq by 1 September - first military mission comprising all 3 ethnic groups. High Rep. Lord Ashdown visited Mostar 15 March marking first day of city’s reunification amid criticism from local politicians. NATO’s Stabilisation Force (SFOR) raid to capture former Bosnian Serb president Radovan Karadzic 31 March failed. Two civilians seriously injured.
Russian government said Vladimir Putin won 94% of votes in high turnout in Chechnya for presidential election, sharply contradicting reports from observers who noted mostly empty polling stations. Chechen separatist president Aslan Maskhadov severely weakened by recent loss of 2 most powerful allies: field commander Ruslan Gelaev killed by Russian border troops 28 February, while separatist defence minister Magomed Khambiev surrendered to pro-Moscow Chechen forces 8 March, reportedly after family taken hostage.
Turkish and Greek leaders joined Cypriot counterparts and UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan in Switzerland for final negotiations. Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash refused to attend. With a mandate to fill in gaps after parties failed to agree Annan presented final plan 31 March. Referendums to be held 24 April. Plan calls for loose confederation of 2 states. Revisions include reduction in number of Greek Cypriots allowed to return to northern Cyprus, reduction in size of Turkish Cypriot territory to 29% of Cyprus, allowing some 120,000 Greek Cypriots back to their homes under Greek Cypriot administration, restrictions on property rights for Greek Cypriots in north until region approaches living standards of south, 24 seats for Turkish Cypriots in 48-seat Senate and the continued presence of Turkish troops in Northern Cyprus.
Standoff between Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili and leader of autonomous region of Ajara, Aslan Abashidze, ended 18 March after latter reportedly made key concessions, averting for moment feared civil conflict. After being denied entry to Ajara by armed supporters of Abashidze, Saakashvili had imposed economic blockade on region, demanding entry, release of opposition activists detained by Ajaran authorities, and promise that 28 March parliamentary elections would be conducted freely and fairly in Ajara. Deal ending standoff apparently mediated by Russia, which has military base in Ajara. International observers reported 28 March elections were most democratic in country’s history, though widespread irregularities reported in Ajara. Preliminary results indicated only 1 opposition party, New Rightists/Industrialists, reached controversial 7% threshold required to enter parliament. Tension between Saakashvili and Abashidze continues to pose risk of future violence.
Reshuffle saw Nurtay Abyqaev, ally of President Nazarbayev, promoted to speaker of senate, number 2 post in government. Following reshuffle, Emergency Situations head Zamanbek Nurqadilov sacked 2 days after calling on president to resign.
Worst inter-ethnic violence since 1999, 17-18 March. Across Kosovo Albanian mobs attacked Serb minority. UNMIK also targeted. Security forces overwhelmed and disorganised in face of 33 major riots in which 50,000 participated, some using firearms. Some 19 killed, 900 wounded. 800 houses and 30 churches and monasteries destroyed or damaged. Initial clashes in Mitrovica sparked by media reports that Serb youths caused 3 Albanian boys to drown. Near Pristina, mobs and security forces fought pitched battle at Caglavica village, where Serbs had blockaded highway south to Macedonia after 16 March shooting of young Serb. Riots seen as hysterical explosion of Albanians’ frustrations – unresolved future, mass unemployment, blocked privatisation, apparent delegitimisation of liberation struggle, and fear that Belgrade being allowed to regain upper hand over them. Security forces arrested 200, but UN and Contact Group resumption of previous policies together with deteriorating relations between Kosovo Albanians and international personnel seen as possibly risking further, more violent explosion.
Kyrgyz ombudsman announced will investigate case of jailed opposition figure Feliks Kulov following latter’s request for inquiry into violations of his rights.
Year’s first trainload of Russian arms to be evacuated from breakaway Transdniestria region departed for Russia 25 March. Talks with OSCE, Ukrainian and Russian mediators on conflict with Transdniestria may resume in April.
Presidential elections scheduled for 14 April. Contest between candidates of 2 largest political parties, current PM Crvenkovski from ruling SDSM and Sasko Kedev of opposition VMRO-DPMNE, with Albanian minority likely to cast deciding vote. Campaign could be influenced by March events in Kosovo. Macedonia officially applied for EU membership 22 March.
Ulster Unionist (UUP) leader David Trimble withdrew from Good Friday review 2 March over government’s refusal to exclude Sinn Féin. Ian Paisley’s Democratic Unionist party (DUP) remained but refuses to talk directly to Sinn Féin. Prime ministers of Britain and Ireland met to discuss way ahead 23 March. Reported no progress after talks with province’s divided leaders. Leadership challenge to Trimble 27 March failed.
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