CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Myanmar

Talks between government and Karen National Union (KNU) aimed at consolidating provisional ceasefire ended 25 February, without significant advances. Six previous attempts to find agreement on relocation of armed forces, delineation of KNU territory and fate of internally displaced Karen failed. Government indicated multi-party talks on new constitution to be resumed later this year. All parties to be included in democracy "road map," but no date given for releasing Aung San Suu Kyi or lifting restrictions on her National League for Democracy (NLD).

Nepal

Bitter power struggle between Maoist rebels, parliamentary political parties and King Gyanendra worsened. Four separate strikes in Kathmandu called by Maoists and Nepal’s main opposition parties: 17 February strike in response to killing of 19 rebels by Nepalese army 6 February; subsequent 5-day strike called by Maoist students cut short 27 February as support waned. Several clashes between Maoists and government troops, including attack on Maoist camp in Kalikot district, claimed over 60 lives.

Pakistan

Basic roadmap for peace’ announced by Pakistan and Indian governments 18 February involves series of meetings over 6 months. Nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan publicly confessed involvement in nuclear proliferation 4 February; pardoned by President Musharraf 5 February. Recipients of nuclear technology claimed to be Iran, Libya and North Korea, but not terrorist groups. After calling for support from Islamic scholars Musharraf commenced military operations 24 February in tribal regions along Afghan border. Eleven suspected militants killed by troops in possible accident 28 February. Leader of banned party Laskhar e Tayyaba addressed audience of 3,000 jihadis in Islamabad. More than 300 mostly Sunni, hardline clerics banned from travelling during month of Muharram in government bid to prevent sectarian violence. Suicide bomber died 28 February in Rawalpindi mosque in attempt to target Shiites gathered for Muharram.

Papua New Guinea

PM Sir Michael Somare awaits ombudsman’s decision on validity of January parliament adjournment (to escape vote of no confidence). Only 8 out of 300 Australian police and civil servants deployed as part of program to address growing lawlessness - further deployment delayed by parliamentary hiatus.

Philippines

Political violence mounted in run-up to 10 May general elections. Police claimed 33 people killed and 86 wounded in at least 23 election-related attacks. Supreme Court ruling on whether popular presidential candidate Fernando Poe able to stand for office expected early March; a ruling against Poe will probably lead to violent demonstrations. Ferry explosion 29 February – approximately 180 missing - Islamist terrorist group Abu Sayyaf’s claim of responsibility dismissed as propaganda by government. Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and government agreed to resume peace talks in April and to prepare for immediate deployment of Malaysian-led international ceasefire monitoring team. Eight police killed by Communist New People's Army (NPA) ambush on central Philippine island of Masbate 16 February. Attack came 2 days after government and National Democratic Front (includes Philippines Communist Party and their armed faction NPA) concluded peace talks. Talks to resume in March.

Sri Lanka

Political stalemate ended 7 February with President Kumaratunga calling elections for 2 April, almost 4 years ahead of schedule. Government condemned move as undemocratic. President also sacked 39 junior ministers to prevent them using positions to campaign. Tamil Tigers (LTTE) expressed concern over president’s alliance partner, Marxist People's Liberation Front (JVP), who called current ceasefire national security threat. LTTE not to contest election but pledged support for moderate Tamil National Alliance (TNA). Tamil candidate campaigning to represent Prime Minister Wickremesinghe's party shot dead 1 March. Development aid pledged at Tokyo conference last year conditional on progress of peace talks.

Taiwan Strait

Polls indicated President Chen Shui-ban running neck and neck with Lien Chan, leader of Kuomintang party (KMT), ahead of 20 March presidential elections. President Chen continued to draw fire – from China and further abroad – for plan to hold election-day referendum asking voters to approve boost in defences should China fail to redeploy missiles aimed at Taiwan. U.S. officials said referendum unnecessary, repeating opposition to any unilateral attempt to change status quo across Strait. Over 1 million people joined together in human chain along Taiwanese coast 28 February to protest Chinese missile deployments.

Thailand

Reports put death toll from southern sectarian unrest at 45 since 4 January. Nine arrested in connection with violence. Thai police recruiting additional 24,000 so officers can be sent to every village in 3 southern provinces (Pattani, Narathiwat and Yala) where martial law remains in place. Mass school closure 18 February in response to threats of violence aimed at teachers and students. PM Thaksin Shinawatra promised region U.S.$255 million for economic and educational projects.

Timor-Leste

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan urged a scaled-back peacekeeping force be kept in place for another year to guard against unexpected developments. East Timor Foreign Minister Jose Ramos-Horta agreed with Annan's recommendation. Presently 1,750 UN troops and military observers in country. A force of 310 soldiers will remain after 20 May.

Europe & Central Asia

Albania

Opposition parties held protest rallies 7 and 21 February against PM Fato Nano. Democratic Party leader, former president Sali Berisha called for Nano’s resignation and accused him of corruption and poor economic policies. Attempt by Berisha to compare situation with Georgia failed after first demonstration turned violent.

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