CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict

Armenian officer brutally murdered at NATO Partnership for Peace training course in Hungary, allegedly by Azerbaijani counterpart. Incident dealt further blow to already dismal prospects for near-term settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.

Azerbaijan

Opposition activists detained following post- election demonstrations in October 2003 went on hunger strike for 2 weeks to protest conditions of incarceration and demand fair trials.

Basque Country (Spain)

Basque terrorist group ETA announced limited ceasefire with Catalonia. Move criticised by mainstream Spanish political parties, all of which oppose negotiations with ETA. Over 500 kgs of explosives believed to be destined for Madrid intercepted by security forces 29 February – bomb would have been largest by ETA in 30-year history.

Bosnia And Herzegovina

Membership in NATO’s Partnership for Peace program at risk after failure to appoint national defense minister. NATO-led troops continued search for former Bosnian Serb president Karadzic. His political ally Momcilo Krajisnik on trial 3 February as highest ranking Bosnian Serb before Hague War Crimes Tribunal. International sanctions imposed by High Rep. Lord Ashdown 9 February on 10 Bosnian Serbs, including former Bosnian Serb president Mirko Sarovic, all accused of being part of criminal network protecting Karadzic. Ashdown’s proposal to unite Mostar criticised by Croat and Bosnian politicians.

Chechnya (Russia)

Authorities blamed Chechen rebels for 6 February Moscow subway bomb, which killed 39 according to officials, though toll likely much higher. Chechen president Aslan Maskhadov denied claims and condemned attack. Former president Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev killed in Qatar car bombing 13 February. Two Russian agents detained, prompting protests from Moscow.

Cyprus

Long awaited talks started 19 February between Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders Rauf Denktash and Tassos Papadopoulos. Talks focused on previously rejected plan of UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, which proposes reunification of Cyprus as "The United States of Cyprus" with 2 federal regions, 1 for 650,000 Greek Cypriots, the other for 180,000 Turkish Cypriots. Disagreement exists over return of around half 200,000 Greek Cypriot refugees to Turkish Cypriot north. Denktash said number too high, Greek side insisted all refugees should have right to go back to their homes. U.S., UN, EU strongly back talks - U.S. promised to donate ‘generously’ if accord is reached. If no agreement by 22 March Turkish and Greek leaders will join negotiations. Should deadlock remain Annan will have authority to resolve outstanding issues before deal put to all Cypriots in 21 April referendum.

Georgia

Parliament approved constitutional amendments strengthening powers of presidency and creating post of prime minister. Amendments criticised as undemocratic and aimed solely at installing Zurab Zhvania, Minister of State, as PM. Parliament also approved new cabinet – one of Europe’s youngest. Government’s aggressive anti-corruption campaign continued. Son-in-law of former president Eduard Shevardnadze arrested aboard plane bound for Paris on suspicion of tax evasion. Reports of media intimidation and police abuses raising some concern. Council of Europe Secretary General Walter Schwimmer urged lowering of 7% threshold for political party representation in parliament under proportional voting system, as legislature could have only single party following 28 March elections. In Ajara, authoritarian leader Aslan Abashidze under growing pressure from opposition groups; claimed Tbilisi preparing armed invasion of breakaway region. Separatist republic of Abkhazia sent delegation to Tbilisi for talks on resolving dispute, but refused to participate in 17-18 February negotiations in Geneva.

Kazakhstan

Asar, political party launched by president’s daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva, held founding congress amid expectations party will lead in parliamentary elections scheduled October. Heavy rains and poor cooperation between Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan in managing shared water resources causing severe flooding along Syr Darya river near Uzbek-Kazakh border.

Kosovo

UNMIK prodded Kosovo’s provisional institutions (PISG) toward renewed dialogue with Belgrade and reactivated UNMIK-Belgrade high working group although Belgrade still lacked government after recent elections. UNMIK and PISG completed joint draft standards implement ation plan while Kosovo Serbs maintained boycott. UNMIK chief Holkeri’s warning of final status review delay beyond mid-2005 if standards not met drew threat from Prime Minister Rexhepi of unilateral action. Stalling of privatisation continued to strain UNMIK-PISG relations. Two Kosovo Serbs shot dead near Lipjan 19 February. Environment minister Ethem Ceku survived car bombing. Prizren Kosovo Protection Corps commander arrested 16 February for war crimes. Kosovo Protection Corps commander Agim Ceku detained in Budapest on Serbian Interpol warrant, then released 29 February.

Kyrgyzstan

President Akayev announced cabinet reshuffle; move seen as designed to bolster positions of allies ahead of 2005 elections. Passage of language law making fluency in Kyrgyz compulsory for government employees causing controversy among ethnic Russian and Uzbek minorities. Heavy rains and poor cooperation between Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan in managing shared water resources causing severe flooding along Syr Darya river near Uzbek-Kazakh border.

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