CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Latin America & Caribbean

Ecuador

Gunmen opened fire on president of powerful National Indian Federation 2 February – he escaped injury, but 3 family members wounded. Police clashed 17 February with hundreds of Indian protesters during second day of demonstrations against government austerity measures - 17 injured. President Gutiérrez postponed his visit to Colombia, scheduled for early March.

Guatemala

Former President Alfonso Portillo fled country ahead of charges of corruption by month-old government of Oscar Berger after Congress lifted his immunity from prosecution.

Haiti

Following rebel uprising in north and violence in capital, and calls from France and U.S. for him to step aside, President Aristide resigned and left country 29 February for Central African Republic. Rebels, including former military and police – many of whom served under notorious Duvalier and Cedras’ dictatorships – control second largest city, Cap-Haïtien, and most of north, and have begun moving into capital Port-au-Prince. Violent gangs, supporters of President Aristide, looting and terrorising civilians in capital. More than 80 killed since uprising commenced 5 February. UN Security Council voted unanimously to send multinational peacekeeping force to Haiti for up to 3 months and President Bush ordered deployment of marines to Haiti, with first contingent arriving late 29 February. Up to 200 French troops due to arrive 1 March.

Peru

Beleaguered President Toledo reshuffled his cabinet for fourth time in less than 3 years. Polls show his popularity at 7%. Ex-President Fujimori, in exile in Japan, seeking to build political support for possible return to Peru – facing criminal charges if he does return. Angry coca farmers demanded greater financial assistance from government to grow alternative crops.

Venezuela

Election board ruled 3-2 that more than 1 million of 3.4 million signatures on petitions for referendum to recall President Chavez need to be certified by petitioners – to occur on 16 March. Petitions submitted December require at least 2.4 million valid signatures to enable referendum to proceed. Board decision denounced by opposition as violation of constitution. Two killed as thousands protested election board decision 27 February – Chavez responded by warning he would crack down on “subversion”.

Middle East & North Africa

Algeria

Berbers announced boycott of 8 April presidential elections and said would disrupt voting activities in Kabylie region. Talks with government broke down over Berber demand that Tamazight language be given same status as Arabic. President Bouteflika, under pressure from opposition, invited international community to send election observers, but short notice likely to make monitoring mission difficult.

Egypt

President Hosni Mubarak said Egypt would repeal law allowing authorities to imprison journalists for libel, insults, or defamation.

Iran

Conservatives won clear parliamentary majority in 20 February elections, boycotted by reformers after hardline Guardian Council barred more than 2,500 candidates from running. Turnout was reported at 50% country-wide – down from 67% in 2000 – and 33% in Tehran. Statements from EU and U.S. expressed disappointment at flawed democratic process. Two major reformist newspapers shut by conservatives day before vote. IAEA released report detailing secret Iranian purchases of nuclear equipment from international suppliers linked to Pakistan’s Abdul Qadeer Khan, indicating Iran only partially disclosed nuclear activities in autumn 2003 report to IAEA. Western officials say Tehran still hiding full extent of program.

Iraq

Following fact-finding mission led by UN Special Envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Iraqi elections not feasible before end of 2004 or early 2005. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, country’s most powerful Shiite cleric, called for guarantee – possibly in form of UN Security Council resolution – that elections would be held by year end. U.S. acknowledged plan to select transitional assembly through local caucuses requires modification, but handover of power will go on as scheduled 30 June. Governing Council agreed on interim constitution; composition of transitional assembly yet to be decided. Violence continued with series of large-scale attacks mainly targeting Iraqis: On 1 February suicide bombers struck offices of Kurdish political parties PUK and KDP, killing 101, including several senior Kurdish officials. Two apparent suicide car bombs 10 and 11 February killed around 100 Iraqi men waiting in line for police and army jobs. Twin suicide attacks on Coalition base in al-Hillah 18 February left 11 Iraqis dead and dozens of Coalition soldiers wounded. 316 Coalition soldiers, including 267 Americans, killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat operations on 1 May 2003.

Israel/Palestine

International Court of Justice held 3 days of hearings 23-25 February on Israeli security fence. Israel claimed Court has no jurisdiction in matter, sent no representatives to hearings, which saw presentations from several parties opposed to barrier. U.S. and EU said Court not appropriate forum for resolving dispute. Day before hearings began, suicide bomber killed 8 others on bus in Jerusalem. On 29 February Israel’s High Court ordered work on barrier delayed 1 week while Palestinian complaints considered. Israeli raid into Gaza 11 February left 14 dead, and 28 February missile strike in Gaza City killed 3 militants and young boy. Ariel Sharon held meetings with U.S. envoys to discuss his plan for unilateral withdrawal from most of Gaza Strip. U.S. said to be supportive. Sharon to present plan to President Bush in Washington in late March.

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