February 2004

Peace plan worked out by 3 mediators of Transdniestria conflict – OSCE, Russia, and Ukraine – published in Chisinau 16 February. Plan calls for breakaway region to become “federation subject”, but leaves key details out - promptly rejected by Transdniestria. Negotiations to resume in late March; indications EU will play larger role. No signs Russia prepared to withdraw “peacekeeping” contingent from Transdniestria, though officials claim to be committed to resuming evacuation of ammunition.

President Trajkovski, architect of 2001 Ohrid peace agreement, killed in 27 February plane crash. Despite loss political situation remained stable. Speaker of parliament, Ljubco Jordanovski, to serve as acting president until elections, possibly in March or April.

Good Friday Agreement Review started 3 February. Progress in doubt after police blamed Provisional IRA for attempted kidnapping of alleged dissident republican in Belfast 20 February. David Trimble, leader of moderate UUP, threatened to pull out of review unless UK government takes action. Paisley’s DUP ‘Devolution Now’ document largely rejected as alternative to existing Agreement but praised for invigorating discussions. DUP suggested corporate assembly involving all 108 assembly members in running government before outstanding questions of IRA arms and paramilitary activity resolved. Sinn Fein responded with own proposals to revive Stormont with 10 government departments.

Kostunica’s Democratic Party of Serbia likely to form minority government first week of March with G17+, Serbian Movement of Renewal (SPO) and New Serbia (NS), relying on support of Milosevic’s Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS). Dragan Marsicanin (DSS) elected as Serbian parliament speaker with SPS support. New elections seemingly avoided for time being. Defence Minister Boris Tadic won 22 February power struggle inside Democratic Party (DS) for party president. Presiding judge in Milosevic trial resigned for health reasons, effective 31 May; prosecutors concluded their case after 2 years of hearings. Kostunica said that further cooperation with Hague Tribunal will not be priority. Milosevic to be tried in absentia in Belgrade for murder of former Serbian president Ivan Stambolic.

Former presidential guard commander, sacked in January, named head of anti-narcotics agency. President Rakhmonov has dismissed or reassigned several officials in recent weeks in bid to consolidate power. Tajik border officials continue to seek takeover of monitoring duties along Tajik- Afghan frontier from Russian troops.

Lavish government-orchestrated celeb- rations marked 64th birthday of President Niazov, self-styled “Turkmenbashi” (“Leader of the Turkmens”), who continues to run one of world’s most repressive regimes. Recent decree prohibits young men wearing long hair or beards.

International NGOs finding it increasingly difficult to work in Uzbekistan following imposition of new registration requirements. Recent government resolution allows imposition of 40% tax on foreign humanitarian assistance. Authorities arrested 62-year-old woman for speaking out against death of her son, who died in police custody after allegedly being immersed in boiling water; later released following international outcry. Heavy rains and poor cooperation between Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan in managing shared water resources causing severe flooding along Syr Darya river near Kazakh border.

Alleged coup plot to take over legislative assembly broken up by authorities late January, made public early February. Government’s U.S. backed campaign to eradicate coca leaf continues to cause unrest among growers. Car bomb killed government prosecutor with reputation for fighting drug operations 27 February.

Government claims paramilitary groups have killed more than 250 since ceasefire announced December 2002, but that killings down by 44% over previous year. U.S and UN complained of continuing paramilitary violence. 22 members of AUC paramilitary group and 10 soldiers killed in fighting 21 February. Government claimed some 17 members of FARC rebel group and 8 members of ELN rebel group killed in clashes with armed forces on weekend of 21 February. FARC responded 25 February with attack in south, killing 12 soldiers and kidnapping 3 businessmen – President Uribe sacked general in command of region. U.S. added leaders of FARC and AUC to its list of international drugs traffickers.

Border with Haiti closed mid- February to prevent spillover of violence and flood of refugees from Haitian uprising. Haitian rebels based in Dominican Republic taking part in fighting, leading to renewed tension between 2 countries. Following departure of Haiti’s President Aristide, some officials from his government sought asylum in Dominican Republic. President Mejia determined to seek re-election in May vote despite widespread opposition, including from some in own party.