CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
40-year-old church dispute re-surfaced. Government attempted to maintain unity in Macedonian Orthodox Church (MPC) by arresting Orthodox Bishop Zoran Vraniskovski, who advocates return to Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) control. Autocephaly for MPC, declared in 1967, not recognised by Serbian Holy Synod and therefore by other Orthodox churches. Bishop Zoran reported to have support of 30% of Orthodox Macedonian monks. Ten years after being established Albanian-language Tetovo University given full legal status 21 January amid protests by ethnic Macedonian opposition parties.
DUP leader Ian Paisley to retire from European Parliament in June, but will remain Assembly Member and head of DUP. Review of Good Friday Agreement to begin 3 February. Review talks team boosted by defection of former Ulster Unionists. DUP had first face to face meeting with Irish government 29 January marking ‘new phase’ in relations.
Political instability continues. On 27 January Parliament failed to pick Speaker, and second session scheduled for 30 January postponed indefinitely. Process stalled by disagreement between 2 largest democratic parties, Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and Democratic Party (DS). DSS refuses to join majority government with DS unless DS cleans house of allegedly corrupt elements. DSS efforts to form minority government with Serbian Movement of Renewal-New Serbia coalition (SPO-NS) and G17+ failed. DSS leader Vojislav Kostunica’s recurrent suggestion to form a “concentration” government of all political parties including parties of war crimes indictees Slobodan Milosevic and Vojislav Seselj, failed due to refusal of DS and G17+ to support. Threat of new elections looms. Newly-passed US appropriations bill mentions arrest of Hague indictee Ratko Mladic as condition of U.S. financial assistance. Parties with either explicit or ambiguous anti-western positions now hold majority of parliamentary seats, and Milosevic-era oligarchy has played strong and worrying role in elections and coalition negotiations.
Spain’s Constitutional Court upheld ban on Basque separatist party Batasuna after it refused to condemn ETA, the pro-Basque independence group.
Court sentenced Shamsuddin Shamsuddinov, deputy chairman of opposition Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP), to 16 years in jail on variety of charges, including organising illegal armed group during Tajikistan’s 1992-1997 civil war. IRP says charges part of crackdown on opposition and show regime’s increasing disregard for 1997 peace agreement which ended war and brought IRP into government. President Rakhmonov sacked presidential guard commander, adding to growing list of officials sacked in recent weeks.
Turkish government agreed to compensate Turkish Kurds for human rights abuses at hands of security forces. Signed total ban on capital punishment. Military voiced concerns about Kurdish federation in northern Iraq, indicated federation should be based on geographical, not ethnic, lines. Incirlik airbase near Syrian border reopened to U.S. for logistical and humanitarian missions, after being closed for duration of Iraq war.
Under U.S. pressure, authorities lifted exit visa requirement for Turkmen citizens, but move unlikely to herald significant change in region’s most repressive state.
Authorities rejected second attempt by Birlik, Uzbek opposition movement, to register as political party. International NGOs under increasing pressure from government, with new registration requirements. Government concerned by possible impact of NGOs on political situation following Georgian revolution
President of landlocked Bolivia called on Chile to hand over strip of coastline seized in 1879-83 war – President of Chile had previously offered economic corridor but refused to discuss land transfer. U.S. increasingly concerned about stability of Bolivia, called for more aid from international community to support economic reform.
Senior FARC rebel leader, Simón Trinidad, captured in Ecuador 2 January – most senior rebel leader captured in FARC’s 40-year history. In new campaign, army began pushing into rebel-held parts of country. Leader of AUC paramilitary unit that disarmed in November gave unprecedented address to Congress, calling for legislation to protect paramilitaries who disarmed. Organization of American States agreed 25 January to monitor disarmament of paramilitaries. EU called on government to respect rule of law, in veiled criticism of emergency detention powers for military, approved by Congress in December.
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