Heading towards political and economic crisis. At least 5 killed 28-29 January in clashes with police after 48-hour strike over proposed economic austerity measures turned violent. After changing constitution last year to allow him to run for second term in May 2004 elections, President Hipólito Mejía now seeking further electoral reform to strengthen his candidacy. Moves causing turmoil in his ruling PRD party.

Thousands marched to protest economic policies of President Gutierrez 21 January, on fourth anniversary of indigenous movement’s seizure of government institutions that led to Gutierrez presidency.

Newly elected President Oscar Berger took office 14 January. Nobel Peace Prize winner Rigoberta Menchu agreed to join government in peace accord monitoring role. Government agreed to UN establishing independent commission to investigate resurgence of rural illegal paramilitary groups.

Strikes and protest marches against President Aristide continued almost daily. Aristide warned 17 January that protests were attempts at coup d’état that would lead to death and destruction throughout country. On 18 January unidentified gunmen fired on protesters, killing 1 and wounding 6. Up to 20,000 marched in Port-au-Prince 27 January, calling for Aristide’s resignation. Terms of most legislators expired 12 January, rendering parliament powerless. Aristide and opposition unable to agree on new elections. Amnesty International called for investigation of human rights abuses against demonstrators.

Interior minister warned of possible marches, road blocks and national strike during February 18-20 convention of coca growers in Lima. Widespread dissatisfaction with President Toledo may lead to further protests in coming months. Former spy chief Vladimiro Montesinos went on trial 20 January on charges he arranged supply of arms to Colombian FARC rebels.

U.S., Mexico and Organization of American States called on President Chavez to allow recall referendum on his rule to take place. Chavez claimed that his opponents had not collected enough valid signatures for referendum to take place - but he was prepared for electoral council to determine otherwise. He also pledged to step down if defeated in recall. After dispute with central bank directors, Chavez threatened to take over bank.

Riot police dispersed protesters, among them 100 MPs, demonstrating against 30 December court decision to freeze assets of FLN, ruling political party. MPs part of FLN faction loyal to Ali Benflis, former prime minister sacked by President Bouteflika, who heads rival FLN faction. Government agreed to remove officials in Berber-dominated Kabylia region elected in 2002 polls marred by violence and boycott. Talks broke down, however, over issue of giving official status to Berber language. Presidential elections due in April.

New leader of Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Mahdi Akef, pledged moderation and peaceful opposition to regime. President Hosni Mubarak said 1 January that his son, Gamal, would not inherit power; statement strongest response yet to speculation that Mubarak preparing dynastic succession. Diplomatic relations with Iran likely to be restored in coming days.

Guardian Council, supervisory body composed of hardline judges and clerics, vetoed candidacies of close to half those intending to run in February general election, including 80 current MPs. Disqualifications caused storm of protest and sit-in by MPs. Guardian Council later reinstated 1,160 of over 3,000 vetoed candidates, but reformists, led by President Khatami, said move insufficient. Crisis deepened following threat by reformists to boycott election if disqualifications upheld. Meanwhile, U.S. and European diplomats unhappy with Iranian progress in suspending enrichment of uranium – Iran reportedly still acquiring enrichment-related equipment. IAEA negotiating with Iran to ban such activities.

U.S. looking to amend plan for handover of power to provisional Iraqi government as pressure mounting for elections to be held in June. Pressure coming chiefly from Ali Hussein al-Sistani, leading Shiite cleric, and his followers: 100,000 marched through Baghdad 19 January. American and UN officials discussed possible modifications to original plan, which calls for transitional assembly to be selected by local caucuses rather than directly; all options reportedly back on table, including elections. Sistani said would not drop election demand unless UN agreed with U.S. contention that elections not feasible; UN assessment likely to be completed in February. Lakhdar Brahimi appointed special adviser to Kofi Annan and expected to devote much time to Iraq. Two-man team arrived in Baghdad to inspect security situation for potential UN return. Attacks continue unabated: 18 January suicide bombing outside CPA HQ killed 25, and attacks across Iraq 31 January left at least 18 dead. 300 Coalition soldiers, including 253 Americans, killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat operations on 1 May 2003.