Peace talks in Kenya splutter on, but many key parties not attending or represented. Talks unlikely to be successful unless these participate. President Hassan, of Transitional National Government (TNG), controlling small area of Mogadishu, previously abandoned talks: now accuses Kenya and Ethiopia of derailing talks. TNG delegate murdered in Nairobi 20 October: motive unknown. One Italian and two British aid workers shot dead in self- declared republic of Somaliland: assailants unknown.

Peace talks going well, with parties committed to signing power sharing agreement by end of 2003. Signs continue to indicate imminent end to one of Africa’s longest conflicts, claiming perhaps 2m lives over 20 years. Outstanding issues include power and oil wealth sharing and status of Khartoum. Secretary Powell visited negotiators 22 October, pledging U.S. support for reconstruction once agreement reached. Widespread insecurity continues in Darfur, western Sudan, despite ceasefire, with more than 300,000 internally displaced persons in region. U.S. extended sanctions against Sudan for another year.

Rebel group Lords Resistance Army (LRA) clubbed and shot 22 civilians to death in northern trading town 14 October. LRA killed at least another 40 civilians in three other attacks. U.S. providing military assistance to government to fight LRA. Defence minister says Uganda-Sudan cooperation to fight LRA back on track.

Suppression of dissent continues – scores arrested on 8 and 22 October for protesting deteriorating economic conditions. Inflation now 455% and rising. MDC spokesman charged with trying to overthrow President Mugabe by encouraging general strike. Daily News newspaper closed in September, reopened 25 October after court ruled closure illegal, only to be shut down again by government 27 October: directors jailed for two days before bailed. Human Rights Watch issued report accusing government of using food aid as political weapon. Mugabe announced restructure of central bank, utilities and cabinet in effort to improve economic performance. Continued speculation that Mugabe in ill health – denied by government.

UN Security Council resolution passed 13 October authorising expansion of NATO-led ISAF beyond Kabul. 150 German troops to be deployed to Kunduz by end 2003 and 450 by mid-2004, creating “island of security”; further ISAF “islands” planned. Long-awaited expansion welcome but minimal and insufficient to date. Battles between Afghan commanders in north claimed over 60 lives in first week of October. Ceasefire agreement signed between Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum and Gen. Atta Mohammad 9 October broken by attack 25 October. Atta and Dostum to be moved to new positions in Kabul. Ambitious program to disarm and reintegrate 100,000 Afghan fighters finally underway. Pilot project commenced 24 October in Kunduz: 1,000 fighters laid down weapons. 11,500-strong coalition force continues to focus on south and east where regrouped Taliban forces target internationals and Afghan police and troops. UN humanitarian operations suspended in several southern provinces due to insecurity. Draft constitution circulated 20 October; initial reaction negative across political spectrum.

Dalai Lama said influx of ethnic Chinese into Tibet – spurred by Beijing – leading to “cultural genocide”. Chinese Government following similar policy in northwestern province of Xinjiang: Muslims now less than half population.

Hindu rallies 17 October in Ayodhya demanding construction of temple on site of demolished Babri mosque, flouting official ban. Fear thousands of protestors will reignite Hindu-Muslim violence that killed 3,000 in 1992 and hundreds since. Tensions simmer in north-east where some 30 banned insurgent groups (separatist and communist) operate. Assassination attempt against Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh state, Chandrababu Naidu 1 October. Police blame Maoist rebels, People’s War Group (PWG), who issued “death warrant”. Bihar state government to hold talks with Naxalite groups including PWG. National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) rebels demanding Naga majority areas of Manipur be integrated into Nagaland state. 13 NSCN members released from jail provoking protests from United Committee of Manipur; “precautionary” curfew imposed (including police shoot-on- sight orders) to prevent violent response. More talks between NSCN and central government planned for November. BrahMos surface-to-surface missile test-fired 29 October.

In surprise move by India, fresh peace initiative launched 22 October, proposing 12 concrete steps toward Indo- Pak normalisation, including restoration of further transport links (including aviation and reopening of road between Indian and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir) and renewal of sporting ties; but crucially, no discussion on Kashmir itself. Proposal broadly accepted by Pakistan, but disappointment expressed at “piecemeal” approach. Pakistani Foreign Minister Riaz Khokhar proposed four further confidence building measures; technical talks planned for November. India’s hard-line Deputy PM, L.K. Advani, offered talks with moderate faction of All Party Hurriyat Conference, (umbrella organisation for Kashmiri separatist groups) yet 35 members of both Hurriyat factions taken into ‘preventive detention’ for holding procession in Srinagar 27 October. Attempt 17 October by Muslim separatist group, Al- Mansoorian, to assassinate Chief Minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed provoked nine-hour battle between police and militants. Fighting continues across Line of Control. Government sources estimate 40,000 casualties since 1989; separatists claim more than 80,000.

Key Bali bomber, Ali Gufron, alias Mukhlas, convicted and sentenced to death 2 October. Abu Rusdan, alias Thoriqudin, man believed to have replaced Abu Bakar Ba’asyir as JI leader, went on trial 29 October. JI regrouping after arrests and reportedly planning new attacks. Violence linked to protests over creation of new district in Mamasa, South Sulawesi 29 September-3 October killed three. After months of relative calm in area of Central Sulawesi near Poso, gunmen attacked Christian villages 10 October, torching church and 30 homes and killing three. Further attacks later in October killed at least ten more. By end of month, police had killed six of the gunmen including one of suspected masterminds, and arrested 13. Early indications suggest possible links to JI and local jihadist groups. Peace holding in Maluku where Christian-Muslim fighting has claimed at least 5,000 lives since 1999. Members of Papuan provincial parliament threatened to boycott 2004 general elections if plans to divide province go ahead. Military emergency declared in Aceh in mid-May formally ends 19 November but will almost certainly be extended; military operations against separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) continue, with access to province almost totally closed to foreigners, including humanitarian workers. GAM negotiators from collapsed peace talks convicted on terrorism and rebellion charges and sentenced to terms ranging from 11-15 years. Two killed in clashes between PDIP (governing party) and Golkar (opposition) supporters in Bali 26 October.

Net gains after volatile month. Pyongyang announced 2 October it had finished reprocessing 8,000 nuclear fuel rods (producing enough material for several nuclear bombs); said 16 October it would “physically display” its nuclear deterrent; then 20-25 October reportedly test fired short-range naval missiles into Sea of Japan. Cabinet-level talks between North and South Korea ended in deadlock 17 October. Following discussions with Chinese President Hu Jintao on fringes of Bangkok APEC summit and with Japanese, Russian and South Korean leaders earlier, President Bush announced 19 October possibility of written multilateral security guarantee linked to North Korean steps on dismantling nuclear program, though not Senate-approved formal non-aggression pact demanded by Pyongyang. Having dismissed it days earlier as ‘laughable’, North Korea announced 26 October it was ‘ready to consider’ proposal if based on intention to coexist with DPRK; agreed on 30 October during visit of senior Chinese envoy Wu Bangguo to resume six-way talks early 2004.