Anti-government sentiment rising in wake of President Arroyo’s u-turn announcement to run in 2004 elections. Fernando Poe, film actor and close friend of deposed President Joseph Estrada, also announced intention to run. Government declared military “red alert” 3 November to preempt instability from opposition-led impeachment bid against chief justice; military vowed to stay neutral. Three-hour siege by two armed men (including former aviation official with links to July mutineers) at Manila airport 8 November protesting corruption resulted in deaths of both. Thousands took to streets 11 and 14 November calling for president to step down. Formal peace negotiations with MILF expected to resume soon after Malaysia agrees to send team of 25 observers to Mindanao. Despite July ceasefire, government forces clashed with MILF rebels 11 November, killing 13, including two rebels and two police.

Security situation stabilising. Australian- led multinational intervention force completed troop withdrawal from Weather Coast, one of two major trouble spots. Rapid reaction force will remain on high alert in Townsville, Australia, deployable within 24 hours. 300 arrests made over course of mission including leaders of all main rebel groups and 3,700 weapons collected and destroyed. Millions pledged for reconstruction at 20 November donors meeting in Honiara.

Ceasefire holding but peace process also on hold as country paralysed by political crisis. Days after LTTE (Tamil Tigers) finally presented power-sharing proposal to government, President Kumaratunga suspended parliament, took control of defence, interior and media ministries and deployed troops to guard government buildings 4 November. Move read by many as attempt to undermine PM Wickremesinghe who president has criticised for compromising security by conceding too much to rebels. Norway suspended mediation efforts until crisis resolved. Agreement reached 18 November in meeting between PM and president to form peace committee to work out mechanics of power-sharing. PM offered broader role for president in peace process; she responded by setting 15 December deadline for resolution of stand-off, offered deal on sharing defence responsibilities which Wickremesinghe then rejected. Talk of snap election if stand-off not resolved by mid- December. EU envoy, Chris Patten, met Kumaratunga, Wickremesinghe and, controversially, LTTE chief, Prabhakaran, on trip planned before political crisis.

Chinese officials responded sharply to Taiwanese President Chen Shui-ban’s calls for new constitution and right to hold referendums, saying moves toward independence could make use of force “unavoidable”. Threat to use force first since 2000. In step thought designed to boost re- election chances by provoking China, President Chen set timetable for referendum on new constitution (December 2006) and implementation (May 2008). But Taiwanese parliament voted down controversial bill allowing referendum on independence; instead passed watered-down version permitting such a vote only in extreme circumstances. China cut ties with Kiribati after island chain recognised Taiwan.

OSCE Minsk Group reportedly planning attempt at kickstarting peace talks in coming weeks, but group’s efforts have brought little progress to date.

New president Ilham Aliyev showing no signs of acquiescing to calls by OSCE, Human Rights Watch and others for investigation into irregularities and violence during and after 15 October election. Arrests and dismissals of opposition supporters continue, and government cracking down on independent press.

Plan to become ‘free-associated state’ (sovereign state associated with Spain) approved by Basque regional government 24 October causing considerable tension. Plan to be debated by regional parliament and if approved, put to referendum. Central government declared moves unconstitutional, filed appeal 13 November with Constitutional Court and passed law 28 November criminalising calling of referendum without permission of central government. Two ETA suspects arrested by French police 17 November; Spanish police captured 12 alleged leaders following day.

NATO-assisted defence restructuring continues: integration of Serb and Bosniak- Croat armies under single national command finally underway, 7,500 soldiers to be disarmed and 1,000 metric tons of weaponry destroyed by year-end. European Commission feasibility study gives Bosnia good chance of beginning negotiations for EU Stabilisation and Association Agreement in 2004. One notable shortcoming is cooperation with ICTY. Officials stated that NATO Partnership for Peace membership and European integration hinged on Karadzic arrest. Funding secured for new domestic war crimes court to begin work early 2004.

Newly-installed Chechen president Akhmad Kadyrov set end of winter deadline for security forces to wipe out remaining rebels, but attacks continue despite government’s apparent optimism. Nine Russian soldiers and four policemen died in separate incidents in neighbouring Ingushetia. Chechen envoy Akhmed Zakayev granted asylum in Britain after judge rejected Russian extradition request. Italian PM Berlusconi widely criticised for comments supporting Putin on Chechnya.

Corsican nationalists FLNC announced unilateral ceasefire in surprise move 14 November after surge of violence since failed July autonomy referendum.