U.S. and EU keen to broker reunification before Greek Cypriot part of island joins European Union May 2004. Progress unlikely, however, until after 14 December elections in Turkish Cyprus – last round of talks broke down in March with Turkish Cypriot leadership insisting on two state solution. Greek Cypriot leader Tassos Papadopoulos requested UN sponsorship of new peace talks 26 November. UN SG Kofi Annan called for six-month extension of UN peacekeeping force on the island.

Peaceful revolution swept President Eduard Shevardnadze from power, but risk of violence and fragmentation of country remains. Uprising, dubbed “Rose Revolution” and led by 35-year-old lawyer Mikheil Saakashvili, spanned three weeks of mass protests against fraudulent 2 November elections; culminated 22 November when Saakashvili and supporters stormed parliament while Shevardnadze delivered speech inside. Georgian police and interior ministry troops offered no resistance. After visit from Russian Foreign Minister Ivanov, and call from U.S. Secretary of State Powell, Shevardnadze resigned following day. Presidential elections set for 4 January 2004: Saakashvili expected to win. Aslan Abashidze, authoritarian leader of autonomous region of Ajara, declared state of emergency and partially closed border with rest of Georgia. Concern that Ajara will follow secessionist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in demanding independence; Russia, in slap to Tbilisi, hosted leaders of three regions for talks in Moscow.

Media under fire in region’s wealthiest country. Editor of independent paper “SolDat” banned from journalism for five years following conviction on financial charges unrelated to his writing. Supreme Court rejected appeal of Sergei Duvanov, opposition journalist accused of rape and jailed in January after flawed trial.

Security services claimed terrorist attack on U.S. airbase foiled; arrested three alleged Hizb ut-Tahrir members. U.S.-funded independent printing house opened 14 November in Bishkek. Activists hope new printer will increase media freedom and limit state press’s ability to censor opposition. Tension persists on Uzbek border.

Russia presented proposal for resolution of dispute with Transdniestria region, sidestepping OSCE-led mediation process. Signing ceremony scheduled for 25 November cancelled by Moldovans at last moment after pressure from U.S. and EU, who were dissatisfied with proposed federal structure, in particular influence it would have given Transdniestrian separatist leadership over Moldovan economic and foreign policy. Peace process now back to square one under OSCE auspices. Anti-government demonstrations sparked by collapse of agreement continue. Evacuation of Russian military equipment from Transdniestria resumed after months-long pause, but troop withdrawal unlikely before second half of 2004.

Prime Minister Crvenkovski sacked four cabinet ministers for incompetence 1 November, approved by Parliament 5 November. Voluntary disarmament program commenced 1 November. EU military monitoring mission “Concordia” scheduled to wind up 15 December by which time 200-strong EU police mission “Proxima” will be largely deployed. President Boris Trajkovski announced Skopje's plans to apply for EU membership by February 2004 at Berlin conference 15 November.

Good Friday peace agreement and continued functioning of Northern Ireland Assembly thrown into doubt by 26 November election result. Hardline unionist and nationalist parties gained ground: 30 of 108 seats went to anti-agreement Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), 27 for Trimble’s Ulster Unionists; Sinn Fein won 24 seats, six more than moderate Social Democratic and Labour Party. No new executive government can be formed without agreement of both DUP and Sinn Fein, so no resolution likely while DUP continues to refuse to work with Sinn Fein. Assembly still suspended; DUP to hold talks with Blair 1 December but unlikely power-sharing government will resume in near future.

Political crisis continues. PM Zivkovic dissolved Parliament 13 November and called new parliamentary elections. Third attempt at presidential elections failed 16 November due to low voter turnout (32%), boycotted by two largest opposition parties: Kostunica’s DSS and the G17+ party of Miroljub Labus. Ultranationalist presidential candidate Nikolic won 46% of vote raising concerns for 28 December parliamentary elections. Former Croatian Serb leader Milan Babic indicted by ICTY 18 November. War crimes prosecutor Vukcevic insists on domestic competence to try all cases, but ICTY prosecutor Carla del Ponte adamant The Hague try senior figures. Ratko Mladic (indicted 1995) still at large with Belgrade denying knowledge of his whereabouts after he escaped police dragnet.

Land mines laid by Uzbekistan along common border continue to kill and maim civilians. Two Tajiks killed and three injured while gathering wood in frontier area 4 November.

Devastated by four truck bombs in six days; 61 killed and 750 injured. Two Istanbul synagogues attacked 15 November, then British Embassy (killing Consul General) and HSBC Bank 20 November. Three Turkish militant Islamist groups linked to al Qaeda claimed responsibility for attacks; 21 arrested and many more being interrogated. 22 suspects that had fled to Syria extradited 30 November. Kurdish rebels attacked military outpost in southern Turkey 5 November, killing one soldier. Political wing of Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK or KADEK) renamed itself People’s Congress of Kurdistan (KONGA-GEL) 11 November, claims to seek political solution but refuses to disband military wing; Ankara dismissed move as political stunt.