CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Liberia

Businessman Gyude Bryant sworn in as interim president 14 October. He and LURD rebels arguing over composition of transitional government. UN Security Council concerned former President Taylor still trying to exert influence in Liberia from exile in Nigeria. UNMIL peacekeeping mission replaced West African force 1 October: force won’t be fully deployed till 2004 – at full strength will number 15,000. Peacekeepers began disarming former government and rebel troops in limited areas. American involvement ended with last U.S. warship leaving coast 1 October. Government and rebel troops still committing atrocities against civilians in countryside.

Niger

Government closed only state-run university after protests by hundreds of students and launched crackdown on independent media, closing down 15 private radio stations and removing editors of two weekly newspapers.

Nigeria

More than 12 people killed in fresh ethnic violence in Niger delta town of Warri. Nigeria rated as second most corrupt country in world (after Bangladesh) by Transparency International in report released 9 October.

Rwanda

Ruling party, Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), overwhelmingly won country's first multiparty parliamentary election since 1994 genocide, with 74% of vote. EU observers said 30 September poll marred by “irregularities and fraud” in most provinces. Two-chamber parliament sworn in 10 October. President Kagame asked parliament to establish ombudsman’s office to which all government officials will be required to declare assets. Government seeking to demobilise thousands of soldiers.

Sierra Leone

Lawyers for ex-Liberian President Charles Taylor appeared before Special Court 31 October to argue Taylor immune from prosecution. UNAMSIL Mission continuing its drawdown. First 80 of 800 Bangladeshi peacekeepers relocated to Liberia 8 October.

Somalia

Peace talks in Kenya splutter on, but many key parties not attending or represented. Talks unlikely to be successful unless these participate. President Hassan, of Transitional National Government (TNG), controlling small area of Mogadishu, previously abandoned talks: now accuses Kenya and Ethiopia of derailing talks. TNG delegate murdered in Nairobi 20 October: motive unknown. One Italian and two British aid workers shot dead in self- declared republic of Somaliland: assailants unknown.

Sudan

Peace talks going well, with parties committed to signing power sharing agreement by end of 2003. Signs continue to indicate imminent end to one of Africa’s longest conflicts, claiming perhaps 2m lives over 20 years. Outstanding issues include power and oil wealth sharing and status of Khartoum. Secretary Powell visited negotiators 22 October, pledging U.S. support for reconstruction once agreement reached. Widespread insecurity continues in Darfur, western Sudan, despite ceasefire, with more than 300,000 internally displaced persons in region. U.S. extended sanctions against Sudan for another year.

Uganda

Rebel group Lords Resistance Army (LRA) clubbed and shot 22 civilians to death in northern trading town 14 October. LRA killed at least another 40 civilians in three other attacks. U.S. providing military assistance to government to fight LRA. Defence minister says Uganda-Sudan cooperation to fight LRA back on track.

Zimbabwe

Suppression of dissent continues – scores arrested on 8 and 22 October for protesting deteriorating economic conditions. Inflation now 455% and rising. MDC spokesman charged with trying to overthrow President Mugabe by encouraging general strike. Daily News newspaper closed in September, reopened 25 October after court ruled closure illegal, only to be shut down again by government 27 October: directors jailed for two days before bailed. Human Rights Watch issued report accusing government of using food aid as political weapon. Mugabe announced restructure of central bank, utilities and cabinet in effort to improve economic performance. Continued speculation that Mugabe in ill health – denied by government.

Asia

Afghanistan

UN Security Council resolution passed 13 October authorising expansion of NATO-led ISAF beyond Kabul. 150 German troops to be deployed to Kunduz by end 2003 and 450 by mid-2004, creating “island of security”; further ISAF “islands” planned. Long-awaited expansion welcome but minimal and insufficient to date. Battles between Afghan commanders in north claimed over 60 lives in first week of October. Ceasefire agreement signed between Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum and Gen. Atta Mohammad 9 October broken by attack 25 October. Atta and Dostum to be moved to new positions in Kabul. Ambitious program to disarm and reintegrate 100,000 Afghan fighters finally underway. Pilot project commenced 24 October in Kunduz: 1,000 fighters laid down weapons. 11,500-strong coalition force continues to focus on south and east where regrouped Taliban forces target internationals and Afghan police and troops. UN humanitarian operations suspended in several southern provinces due to insecurity. Draft constitution circulated 20 October; initial reaction negative across political spectrum.

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