Dalai Lama said influx of ethnic Chinese into Tibet – spurred by Beijing – leading to “cultural genocide”. Chinese Government following similar policy in northwestern province of Xinjiang: Muslims now less than half population.

Hindu rallies 17 October in Ayodhya demanding construction of temple on site of demolished Babri mosque, flouting official ban. Fear thousands of protestors will reignite Hindu-Muslim violence that killed 3,000 in 1992 and hundreds since. Tensions simmer in north-east where some 30 banned insurgent groups (separatist and communist) operate. Assassination attempt against Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh state, Chandrababu Naidu 1 October. Police blame Maoist rebels, People’s War Group (PWG), who issued “death warrant”. Bihar state government to hold talks with Naxalite groups including PWG. National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) rebels demanding Naga majority areas of Manipur be integrated into Nagaland state. 13 NSCN members released from jail provoking protests from United Committee of Manipur; “precautionary” curfew imposed (including police shoot-on- sight orders) to prevent violent response. More talks between NSCN and central government planned for November. BrahMos surface-to-surface missile test-fired 29 October.

In surprise move by India, fresh peace initiative launched 22 October, proposing 12 concrete steps toward Indo- Pak normalisation, including restoration of further transport links (including aviation and reopening of road between Indian and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir) and renewal of sporting ties; but crucially, no discussion on Kashmir itself. Proposal broadly accepted by Pakistan, but disappointment expressed at “piecemeal” approach. Pakistani Foreign Minister Riaz Khokhar proposed four further confidence building measures; technical talks planned for November. India’s hard-line Deputy PM, L.K. Advani, offered talks with moderate faction of All Party Hurriyat Conference, (umbrella organisation for Kashmiri separatist groups) yet 35 members of both Hurriyat factions taken into ‘preventive detention’ for holding procession in Srinagar 27 October. Attempt 17 October by Muslim separatist group, Al- Mansoorian, to assassinate Chief Minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed provoked nine-hour battle between police and militants. Fighting continues across Line of Control. Government sources estimate 40,000 casualties since 1989; separatists claim more than 80,000.

Key Bali bomber, Ali Gufron, alias Mukhlas, convicted and sentenced to death 2 October. Abu Rusdan, alias Thoriqudin, man believed to have replaced Abu Bakar Ba’asyir as JI leader, went on trial 29 October. JI regrouping after arrests and reportedly planning new attacks. Violence linked to protests over creation of new district in Mamasa, South Sulawesi 29 September-3 October killed three. After months of relative calm in area of Central Sulawesi near Poso, gunmen attacked Christian villages 10 October, torching church and 30 homes and killing three. Further attacks later in October killed at least ten more. By end of month, police had killed six of the gunmen including one of suspected masterminds, and arrested 13. Early indications suggest possible links to JI and local jihadist groups. Peace holding in Maluku where Christian-Muslim fighting has claimed at least 5,000 lives since 1999. Members of Papuan provincial parliament threatened to boycott 2004 general elections if plans to divide province go ahead. Military emergency declared in Aceh in mid-May formally ends 19 November but will almost certainly be extended; military operations against separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) continue, with access to province almost totally closed to foreigners, including humanitarian workers. GAM negotiators from collapsed peace talks convicted on terrorism and rebellion charges and sentenced to terms ranging from 11-15 years. Two killed in clashes between PDIP (governing party) and Golkar (opposition) supporters in Bali 26 October.

Net gains after volatile month. Pyongyang announced 2 October it had finished reprocessing 8,000 nuclear fuel rods (producing enough material for several nuclear bombs); said 16 October it would “physically display” its nuclear deterrent; then 20-25 October reportedly test fired short-range naval missiles into Sea of Japan. Cabinet-level talks between North and South Korea ended in deadlock 17 October. Following discussions with Chinese President Hu Jintao on fringes of Bangkok APEC summit and with Japanese, Russian and South Korean leaders earlier, President Bush announced 19 October possibility of written multilateral security guarantee linked to North Korean steps on dismantling nuclear program, though not Senate-approved formal non-aggression pact demanded by Pyongyang. Having dismissed it days earlier as ‘laughable’, North Korea announced 26 October it was ‘ready to consider’ proposal if based on intention to coexist with DPRK; agreed on 30 October during visit of senior Chinese envoy Wu Bangguo to resume six-way talks early 2004.

After unprecedented anti-government riots rocked capital, Malé, in September, referendum held 16 October reinstating President Gavoom (sole candidate) for sixth five-year term.

Buddhist-Muslim clashes in Kyaukse including arson attack on mosque 19 October killing nine. ASEAN welcomed “positive development” of government’s roadmap. U.S. officials said “no progress at all” and could be none until democratic opposition allowed full role in politics. UK, Japan and UN continue to demand Suu Kyi release and substantive talks with opposition. UN human rights envoy Paulo Pinheiro to commence six-day investigative trip 3 November.

Crisis deepening since talks between government and Maoist rebels collapsed 27 August, with more than 1,000 killed since breakdown of ceasefire. No progress made in instituting all-party government or restoring normal democratic process, although some vague discussion of local elections being held within year – unlikely prospect in current security environment. Fighting slowed during nine-day Hindu festival Dashain, (2-11 October), but again intensified; conflict remains bogged down in one of its most lethal periods.

Karachi on high alert after September violence and warnings of terrorist attacks. Prominent Sunni leader Maulana Azam Tariq killed by unknown gunmen in Islamabad 6 October. In response angry mobs rioted, torching cinema and destroying property. Violence flared again in Quetta 10-11 October: rocket and grenade attacks killed two. Government carried out three tests between 3-14 Oct of new missile capable of carrying nuclear warhead. Hunt for militants in northwest continues with little success, leading observers to question seriousness. Government began fencing parts of Afghan border 22 October.

Australia to deploy administrators, public sector specialists and 200-300 police to address growing lawlessness, as condition of U.S.$220 million Australian aid program. PNG government unhappy at conditionality of Australian aid but formal agreement expected at December bilateral meeting. PNG government calling for additional assistance with police reform. Draft constitution proposed by Bougainville leaders to resolve final status of semi-autonomous province dubbed “flawed” by PNG Attorney General. Secessionist conflict claimed 20,000 lives between 1988-97. Government to seek extension of Bougainville UN observer mission for additional six months.