CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Sri Lanka

LTTE (Tamil Tigers) pulled out of Japanese-led aid talks on 10 September. Row between Sri Lankan president and prime minister over conduct of negotiations could threaten efforts to end 20-year conflict.

Taiwan Strait

Taiwan failed again in bid to regain seat at UN. Taiwanese authorities took symbolically significant step of issuing passports with “Taiwan” emblazoned on front.

Europe & Central Asia

Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict

OSCE Minsk Group reportedly planning attempt at kickstarting peace talks after Azerbaijani presidential election of 15 October. PM Ilham Aliyev, son of ailing president Heydar Aliyev and likely successor, expected to adopt hard line on dispute.

Basque Country (Spain)

Basque prime minister presented autonomy plan to region’s parliament – Spanish Government said plan illegal. Basque regional government filed a challenge in the European Court of Human Rights against Spanish anti-terror law banning Basque separatist party Batasuna. One member of terrorist organisation ETA killed and two policemen wounded in shootout on 14 September.

Bosnia And Herzegovina

Concerted international pressure led on 25 September to adoption by local authorities of draft law on defence reform that, if endorsed by parliament, will provide for state command over entity armies and pave way for BiH to join NATO’s Partnership for Peace early next year. Draft laws on intelligence and indirect tax reform also await parliamentary endorsement. New commission to unite Mostar began work on 25 September. SFOR continues to uncover arms caches leftover from war. Remains of some 500 people have been discovered in single mass grave in NE Bosnia – assumed to be Muslim wartime victims of Serbs.

Chechnya (Russia)

Kremlin-backed candidate, Akhmad Kadyrov, looks set to win 5 October presidential election in Chechnya after two key opponents dropped out of race. Rebels vow to continue violence in run-up to vote. Six Russian soldiers killed in attacks on 18 and 19 September and seventh in landmine blast, days after truck bomb at security building in southern Russia killed two and wounded 25. Chechnya’s acting president admitted to hospital with case of poisoning – unknown whether poisoning was deliberate.

Corsica

French justice minister visited Corsica on 1 September following upsurge in violence in August. Suspected separatist bomb damaged supermarket on 5 September.

Cyprus

Unlikely to be any progress in UN-led efforts to reunify Cyprus until December elections in Turkish Cyprus. Greek Cypriot president says he believes decisions about Cyprus are made by Turkey, not Turkish Cypriot leader.

Georgia

OSCE election monitoring experts arrived in Tbilisi ahead of 2 November parliamentary elections. Run-up to vote characterised by incidents of violence and widespread pessimism that elections will be fair. Increasing crime levels also raising concern. Justice minister resigned after mass jail break on 10 September; over 50 prisoners remain at large. U.S. announced cut in aid to Georgia, particularly to energy sector. Kidnappings and sporadic confrontations between guerrillas and Abkhazian forces reported in recent weeks. New PM approved by parliament in breakaway province of South Ossetia.

Kazakhstan

Corruption allegations continue to dog region’s wealthiest country. Former Mobil Oil exec. sentenced in New York to four years in prison on charges relating to bribery scheme involving U.S. consultant James Giffen, accused of giving kickbacks to Kazakh Government in exchange for oil contracts. Pro-government “Fatherland” party swept local council elections held on 20 September. Dariga Nazarbayeva, president’s daughter, announced creation of new pro- government political party, with herself as head.

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