Authorities cancelled invitation to EU election observation mission, dealing major blow to hopes of relatively free and fair poll, as opposition and govt campaigning gained momentum.

Govt-controlled election authority rejected EU election observation mission. National Electoral Council (CNE) President Elvis Amoroso 28 May announced it had withdrawn its invitation to EU to send observation mission for July presidential poll, arguing it would be ‘immoral” to allow EU participation given its “neo-colonial practices and interventionism”. Govt-controlled National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez had previously urged authority do this, saying that while govt was committed under Oct 2023 Barbados Agreement to invite EU observers, this was conditional on impartiality and respect for Venezuelan sovereignty, and claimed it was “evident that the European Union favours the candidate of the United States” (referring to opposition coalition Unitary Platform’s candidate, Edmundo González); Rodríguez cited EU’s 13 May decision to maintain all individual sanctions except those targeting several current and former CNE members. CNE’s move indicated govt may be planning to tighten conditions ahead of poll. 

Unitary Platform launched ‘double-headed’ election campaign. Govt and opposition campaigned hard throughout May as elections drew closer. Unitary Platform’s original candidate, María Corina Machado, who is banned from standing for elected office, urged voters at well-attended rallies to support González, who does not have political infrastructure to engage in an intense campaign of his own. Pair 18 May appeared in public together for first time at rally in La Victoria town, González’ birthplace, amid concerns he is perceived to be under Machado campaign’s control. As in other places Machado has campaigned, ruling party same day held parallel rally in La Victoria.

Oil companies scrambled to obtain licences following partial sanctions snapback. After U.S. announced in April that it would not renew General Licence 44, under which Venezuela could sell oil and gas on open market, U.S. Treasury Department 22 May announced up to 50 firms had requested individual licences to continue doing business with state oil corporation PDVSA, which is permitted under new GL-44a licence. 

Political jostling continued ahead of Sept presidential elections; relations with United Arab Emirates (UAE) remained tense.

Parties continued positioning for 7 Sept vote. Anticipation for presidential polls grew as several politicians announced candidacies. Belkacem Sahli, president of nationalist party National Republican Alliance, 5 May reiterated intention to run on behalf of coalition of several small parties, while Louisa Hanoune, Sec Gen of Workers’ Party and three-time previous candidate, 18 May announced she would be on ballot. Meanwhile, amid persistent reports of internal splits within security forces over who to support in vote, President Tebboune 8 May gave pro-military speech at army headquarters.

Tebboune boycotted Arab League summit due to tensions with Emiratis. Tebboune 16 May avoided Arab League summit in Bahrain’s capital Manama reportedly due to strains with UAE. Tensions may be linked to Emirati support for military authorities in Mali whose ties with Algeria have become strained, with reports govt rejected several Gulf countries’ mediation initiatives. Reuters media 6 May reported Algeria may cancel gas delivery to Spanish company Naturgy if firm’s shares are bought by Emirati firm TAQA. 

New regional grouping held first external meeting. Interior ministers of Algeria, Libya and Tunisia 2 May met Italian counterpart Matteo Piantedosi in Italian capital Rome as part of new three-party grouping, amid ongoing Algiers-Rabat tensions and persistent rumours of creation of new bloc of central North African states as alternative to pre-existing body Arab Maghreb Union that includes Mauritania and Morocco. 

In other important developments. Worker’s Party head Hanoune early May demanded govt reverse ban on demonstrations in support of Palestinian cause; govt 28 May shared draft UN Security Council resolution demanding immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Military 2 May announced it had killed jihadist in Tinzaouatine commune on Malian border; operation followed late April killing of another jihadist in Bordj-Badji-Mokhtar sector also on border. 

Tensions with Israel worsened amid deadly border incident and as govt suspended humanitarian coordination in Gaza; new external credit offered financial reprieve. 

Tensions soared at border after Israel launched Rafah offensive in Gaza. Exchange of fire with Israeli forces at border crossing at southern Gazan city of Rafah 27 May left one soldier dead and others injured; although much remained unclear about what happened, incident marked heightened tensions throughout month. Earlier, after Israeli troops 7 May took over Palestinian side of Rafah border point (see Israel/Palestine) – traversing Philadelphi Corridor in which Cairo maintains limited military presence – Foreign Ministry same day issued statement condemning move as “dangerous escalation”; state media 11 May announced authorities’ refusal to coordinate humanitarian operations with Israel, halting flow of aid through Rafah border. Govt 15 May rejected Israeli proposal to reopen Rafah crossing under Israeli supervision, instead reiterating border point must be in hands of Palestinian authorities; FM Shoukry 20 May justified deadlock and suspension of aid by arguing Israeli military endangers aid convoys. Following diplomatic engagement with Washington, aid deliveries restarted through nearby Kerem Shalom crossing 26 May, although Israel 29 May announced it had taken full control of Philadelphi Corridor. Meanwhile, amid deteriorating Gaza situation, govt 12 May said it would support South Africa in legal action against Israel alleging genocide at International Court of Justice.

Short-term economic outlook stabilised as Cairo negotiated key financing deals. Govt 15 May received $14bn from United Arab Emirates in second tranche of funds from Ras al-Hekma deal for development of real estate on Mediterranean coast. Authorities 18 May met with International Monetary Fund delegation to discuss possible additional loan of $1.2bn for promotion of climate and green transition projects.

In another important development. Amid govt’s ongoing crackdown on pro-Palestinian protesters, authorities 8-9 May arrested two students and 13 May issued order to detain them for fifteen days on charges of joining terrorist organisation and publishing false news. Court 27 May upheld one year prison sentence for former presidential hopeful Ahmed Tantawi on forgery chargers, banning him from running in elections for five years.

President Raisi and FM Amir-Abdollahian were killed in helicopter crash, nuclear watchdog’s chief visited Tehran amid transparency concerns, and deterrence with Israel held after April escalation.

Helicopter crash killed President Raisi and FM Amir-Abdollahian. Govt 20 May confirmed helicopter crash in north-western Iran previous day killed President Raisi and FM Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, as well as six others. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei approved VP Mohammad Mokhber in executive branch caretaker capacity while preparations get underway for presidential elections set for 28 June; Amir-Abdollahian’s deputy Ali Bagheri-Khan, lead interlocutor on nuclear negotiations, took over as acting FM. Following 1 March elections and 10 May run-off votes, which saw hardline victory and record low turnout, new parliamentarians 27 May took seats; Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf was re-elected as speaker.

Amid transparency concerns, nuclear watchdog’s chief visited Iran. Director General of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi 6-7 May travelled to Iran, met with senior officials and “proposed set of concrete practical measures for revitalisation of 4 March 2023 Joint Statement” aiming to restore confidence and increase transparency in Iran’s nuclear program, which continues to advance; Grossi also noted Iran’s willingness to cooperate rather than continue divergent course risking “more escalation […] including war”, but noted “huge question mark about what they are doing and why they are doing it” and criticised “loose talk about nuclear weapons” among senior officials. It remained unclear how much progress was made ahead of next IAEA Board of Governors meeting 3-7 June.

Regional tensions simmered; West imposed more sanctions. After April’s unprecedented escalation between Iran and Israel, pair refrained from further direct hostilities; however, Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups claimed over two dozen missile and drone attacks against Israel during May, while Israeli strikes in Syria persisted and exchanges between Houthis and U.S.-led forces in and around Yemen continued apace (see Iraq, Syria and Yemen). Meanwhile, Australia 14 May sanctioned total of eight persons and entities, including Iran’s defence minister and commander of Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force. Council of EU next day announced expansion of sanctions on Iran’s unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) activity to include “persons and entities supplying, selling or otherwise being involved in transferring Iran’s missiles”.

Iran-backed armed groups targeted Israel, Turkish airstrikes on Kurdish militants persisted, and Islamic State (ISIS) attacks killed several soldiers; govt requested end to UN assistance mission.

Iran-backed groups maintained regional pressure on Israel. Following unprecedented escalation between Iran and Israel in April, Tehran-aligned Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed over two dozen drone and missile attacks on Israel, including cities of Tel Aviv, Haifa, Eilat, Ashkelon as well as Nevatim military base; attacks proved ineffectual. Israeli military 30 May reported interception of cruise missile, likely launched from Iraq, aimed at Israel-occupied Golan Heights.

Türkiye targeted Kurdish militants; Kurdistan leader made rare visit to Iran. Amid ongoing preparations for potential large-scale operation in summer, Türkiye carried out airstrikes targeting alleged Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Hakurk, Gara and Qandil regions of Kurdistan region, claiming to have killed dozens of PKK members (see Türkiye); PKK IED attack 22 May killed Turkish soldier. Kurdistan President and Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader Nechirvan Barzani 5 May arrived in Iranian capital Tehran, meeting President Raisi and Supreme Leader Khamenei; meetings sought to normalise ties and overcome historic tensions. Barzani sought Iran’s support to delay Kurdistan regional elections, reflecting KDP’s perceived disadvantage vis-à-vis its rival after Supreme Court annulled eleven quota seats under de facto control of KDP.

ISIS staged deadly attacks. In deadliest ISIS attack in months, group 13 May killed six soldiers in Mutaibijah town between Salah al-Din and Diyala governorates. ISIS 15 May killed one soldier in al-Dibis district, Kirkuk governorate; 22 May killed one between Diyala and Salah al-Din provinces.

Govt requested end of UN assistance mission in Iraq (UNAMI). Govt 12 May confirmed PM Sudani had requested that UN Sec-Gen end UNAMI mandate by end of 2025, arguing mission established in 2003 is no longer necessary for political stability; minority groups opposed decision given UNAMI’s role in resolving territorial disputes and tensions over budget between Erbil and Baghdad. Meanwhile, parliament 18 May convened to elect speaker of parliament for second time since Nov but failed to award either of top nominees required simple majority; brawl between two opposing Sunni MPs ended session prematurely.

Israel launched long-feared Rafah offensive, displacing around 1m and exacerbating risk of famine, as international prosecutor sought arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders; domestic pressure mounted on Netanyahu.

Israel launched deadly and destructive offensive in Rafah. Israel killed over 1,700 Palestinians in May, bringing death toll since Oct to at least 36,224. Israeli forces 7 May launched ground invasion in eastern Rafah and gradually expanded assault into city, prompting around 1m of 1.4m seeking refuge there to flee; Israel same day occupied Rafah crossing and closed all humanitarian aid deliveries, worsening famine conditions. World Food Programme 22 May warned humanitarian operations are “near collapse”. International Court of Justice 24 May ordered Israel to halt Rafah offensive yet Israel continued advance; Israeli strike in Rafah 27 May killed at least 45, including many women and children. Alleged Israeli strike next day targeted camp in so-called “safe zone” hosting displaced in al-Mawasi, killing at least 21. Exchange of fire with Egyptian forces at border crossing 27 May killed Egyptian soldier; Israel 29 May announced full control of 14km “Philadelphi Corridor” along Gaza-Egyptian border (see Egypt). Meanwhile, Israel continued ground incursions in north, namely Jabalia city and areas around Gaza city, where Hamas demonstrated its ability to regroup and battle Israeli forces in areas previously “cleared”. Hamas 3-6 May launched attacks on Kerem Shalom crossing, killing four Israeli soldiers, and 26 May launched first rockets at Tel Aviv since Jan. Gaza’s authorities 8 May announced discovery of seventh mass grave of Palestinian bodies at a hospital.

Israel rejected ceasefire; International Criminal Court (ICC) mulled leaders’ arrest. Hamas 6 May accepted Qatar- and Egypt-mediated ceasefire proposal, which Israel 8 May rejected. ICC prosecutor Karim Khan 20 May sought arrest warrants against Israeli PM Netanyahu, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and three Hamas leaders.

Israel’s war cabinet faced widening cracks. Gallant 15 May criticised Netanyahu for failure to provide “day-after” Gaza plan. War cabinet member Benny Gantz 18 May criticised Netanyahu for acting in personal interests and 30 May proposed vote to dissolve parliament to bring elections.

Israel raided West Bank and battled Hizbollah. In West Bank, Israeli forces conducted deadly raids and demolitions, displacing hundreds, and settlers continued attacks. Tit-for-tat strikes with Hizbollah remained intense (see Lebanon).

Hizbollah and Israel continued to trade heavy cross-border blows, underscoring risk of expanded conflict; EU bolstered financial support as security forces cracked down on Syrians amid surging anti-refugee sentiment.

Border clashes between Hizbollah and Israel continued. Lebanon continued to face spectre of all-out war, as Hizbollah expanded territorial range of attacks and deployed more sophisticated weaponry. Notably, Hizbollah missile attack 14 May killed Israeli civilian and injured five soldiers. Hizbollah 15 May struck Israel’s Tel Shamayim military base, some 35km from border – marking group’s deepest strike inside Israel since Oct 2023. Hizbollah 16 May launched Russian-made air-to-surface rockets from drone for first time. Israeli airstrike 5 May killed four civilians in Mays al Jabal town. Israel 18 May said it killed around 300 Hizbollah personnel since Oct; strikes, however, appear to have had little discernible impact on group’s offensive capabilities. Israeli airstrikes 26 May killed at least eight across south; Hizbollah same day reportedly responded by launching over 150 missiles at Israeli targets. Harsh rhetoric and warnings of escalation continued. Hizbollah’s chief Hassan Nasrallah 13 May said fighting would continue as long as war in Gaza persists, reiterating Hizbollah’s months-long position (see Israel/Palestine). Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant 8 May warned of “hot summer” in border region. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich 20 May said Israel should threaten to occupy southern Lebanon if Hizbollah does not withdraw north of Litani river. 

Crackdown on Syrian refugees intensified following EU financial support. Following upsurge in violence against Syrian refugees in April, and after Lebanon stopped taking back Syrian refugees crossing to Cyprus “illegally”, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides 2 May announced €1bn support package for refugee relief and migration control, much of which repackaged pre-existing funding commitments; announcement caused public outcry accusing EU of “bribing” Lebanon to permanently settle refugees. General Security 8 May announced measures to crack down on “illegal” Syrian refugees, including forced closure of shops and seizure of vehicles, adding to climate of fear among 1.5mn refugees. First “voluntary return” convoy of over 300 Syrian refugees 14 May left Lebanon, as human rights organisations warned of increased forced deportations.

Political deadlock continued as parallel govts engaged internationally; corruption and insecurity persisted. 

Outgoing UN envoy decried stalemate amid Western officials’ visits to parallel govts. Abdoulaye Bathily, who resigned as head of UN mission in April, 14 May said Libyan leaders not interested in stabilising country or holding elections and had “fuelled rivalries” among armed groups to maintain status quo. However, deputy UN special representative Stephanie Koury 21 May launched new discussions with Libyan officials. Meanwhile, parallel administrations both engaged with Western officials. Tripoli-based PM Dabaiba 15 May met EU Council President Charles Michel and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels to discuss migration issues and renewable energy, while earlier in month, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni 7 May visited Tripoli to sign agreements including on education and health; Meloni later same day met with eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar, whose entourage also received visits from other international officials including from EU and U.S.; engagement with Haftar occurred amid his growing military cooperation with Russia and proposal for Russian-built oil refinery in east announced 18 May. 

IMF noted positive economic prospects despite need for public sector reform. International Monetary Fund’s monitoring mission to Libya 13 May estimated GDP to grow by 8% in 2024 thanks to rise in oil exports, despite lack of budgeting accountability and high public sector wages and subsidies; IMF urged authorities to adopt governance reforms to fight corruption and called for reunification of central bank. Meanwhile, court 12 May ordered arrest of four customs officials accused of “conspiring to smuggle” 26 tonnes of gold worth over $1.8bn through Misrata airport in Dec 2023.

Insecurity persisted. Members of Stability Support Authority and First Support Force armed groups 18 May clashed in Al-Zawiya city, west of Tripoli, killing one and injuring six others. Benghazi MP Ibrahim al-Dressi went missing 16 May amid concerns he may have been kidnapped and calls for his immediate release.

In another important development. Interior ministers of Algeria, Libya and Tunisia 2 May met Italian counterpart Matteo Piantedosi as part of new three-party grouping (see Algeria).

Tensions with Mali remained high over cross-border incidents.

Following April incident in which Malian soldiers and allied Russian paramilitary Africa Corps, formerly Wagner Group, reportedly killed and wounded Mauritanian civilians in cross-border anti-jihadist operations, govt 2 May said it was ready to defend “territorial integrity of the country” and said it would protect its citizens; military 5 May said it had held military exercises along border with Mali.

Negotiations over Saudi-U.S. defence pact inched ahead.

Bilateral deal with U.S. appeared to advance. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman 19 May met U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan in Dhahran city to discuss bilateral agreements on nuclear energy, defence and security cooperation, reportedly in exchange for Riyadh limiting Chinese investment and arms purchases; U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 22 May said agreements “could be weeks away”. Regional dimension that includes Saudi Arabia’s normalisation with Israel and pathway to Palestinian statehood remained stalled amid Israel’s reluctance to end war in Gaza and withdraw from territory – Riyadh’s reported requirements for normalisation (see Israel/Palestine).

In other important developments. In sign of ongoing rapprochement with Iran, Saudi ambassador to Iran 6 May attended International Conference on Nuclear Science and Technology in Iranian city Isfahan to discuss plans to work together to develop peaceful nuclear energy. FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan 2 May held phone calls with leaders of Sudanese warring parties and promised to resume expanded Jeddah talks including Gulf and African actors (see Sudan).