Claudia Sheinbaum won presidential election wracked by record levels of violence; President López Obrador set to enact controversial reforms before stepping down.

Claudia Sheinbaum won election amid record levels of violence. Ruling MORENA party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum 2 June won election with about 60% of vote, becoming Mexico’s first woman president. Chief opponent Xóchitl Gálvez 13 June formally contested results, alleging use of state apparatus to support Sheinbaum, unequal competition and organised crime involvement, though allegation unlikely to affect result. According to 4 June report by civil society organisation Causa en Común, these elections were most violent in nation’s modern history: thirty-seven candidates or aspiring candidates were assassinated during campaign period, while two voters were killed at polling stations. 

Criminal violence plagued multiple states. Insecurity remained rampant, partly as criminal groups sought leverage in upcoming negotiations with new govt. Notably, armed assailants 3 June killed mayor of Cotija town, Michoacán state; 17 June killed newly-elected mayor in Copala town, Guerrero state; 22 June killed outgoing mayor of Malinaltepec city, Guerrero state. Violence in Chiapas intensified amid rivalry between Jalisco Cartel – New Generation (CNJG) and Sinaloa Cartel, with clashes 8-9 June forcing over 4,000 people to flee Tila town. Massacre in León city, Guanajuato state, 9 June left six people dead; CNJG denied role in attack as officials 14 June announced arrest of five National Guard agents for potential involvement. 

López Obrador vowed to press ahead with controversial reforms. Outgoing President LópezObrador 7 June announced plans to capitalise on Sept overlap with new MORENA supermajority in Congress to push through constitutional reforms. Among other things, López Obrador plans to introduce elections for judicial figures, dismantle autonomous public bodies and strengthen role of Armed Forces through National Guard; critics argue they could undermine checks and balances. Meanwhile, change to Amnesty Law enacted 14 June gave president authority to grant amnesty for any crime, including human rights violations.

Migration flows persisted at high levels. National Institute of Migration 16 June reported nearly 1.4mn irregular migrants traveling through Mexico Jan-May 2024. Inter-American Commission on Human Rights 13 June criticised use of armed forces in migration control. 

Stifling of dissent and poor treatment of political prisoners continued, and regime authorised foreign troop deployment to support humanitarian situation. 

Crackdown on dissent and poor treatment of political prisoners continued. Govt 11 June cancelled legal status of fifteen NGOs, 24 June closed fifteen more. Local media 14 June published report revealing govt had imposed arbitrary fines of up to 20,000 córdobas ($500) on evangelical leaders as suppression of religious institutions continued. Meanwhile, Inter-American Commission on Human Rights 11 June condemned “deplorable” prison conditions and urged regime to protect political prisoners’ “lives and integrity”. Organization of American States 27 June adopted resolution urging immediate release of political prisoners in Nicaragua and easing of repression of church members.

Govt approved foreign troop entry and continued to forge new alliances. National Assembly 4 June authorised entry of troops from U.S., Russia, Venezuela and Cuba to provide emergency humanitarian assistance until 31 Dec 2024, specifying that Russian and Venezuelan soldiers will also assist in fight against drug trafficking and organised crime. Meanwhile, regime 7 June reaffirmed its intention to join BRICS and 11 June formalised re-establishment of diplomatic relations with North Korea amid efforts to diversify alliances in face of Western sanctions. President Ortega 22 June appointed ambassador to Afghanistan, formalising establishment of diplomatic relations with Taliban authorities.

Tensions mounted in run-up to July presidential poll as Maduro govt, unwilling to relinquish power, continued to manipulate electoral conditions; outright fraud remains possible.

Opposition candidate’s wide lead in polls raised concerns about govt response. As July presidential poll drew closer, most credible polling organisations gave opposition coalition Unitary Platform’s candidate Edmundo González large lead over President Maduro. Delphos pollster Félix Seijas 4 June cautioned that his surveys show Maduro with “ceiling” of around 30% of vote (20 points behind González), meaning govt’s focus will likely be on discouraging opposition voter participation in order to win. This may require drastic steps, such as ban of Unitary Platform’s ticket and/or González’ candidacy, which would likely throw opposition into disarray. Manipulation of electoral conditions means most likely outcome of poll is victory for Maduro who, along with seven other candidates, 20 June signed agreement to respect results; González refused. In this event, protests are likely following announcement of results, though govt previously vowed to respond harshly, which could shrink their size.

Authorities reduced external election observation. Atop these risks, electoral authorities’ (CNE) late-May cancellation of EU electoral observation mission further indicated govt will prioritise winning poll over recovering international recognition and sanctions relief; opposition-linked CNE member Juan Carlos Delpino 11 June said council president made decision unilaterally, likely on instructions of National Assembly president Jorge Rodríguez; Delpino added that CNE had not met since March. NGO Carter Center and UN 19, 25 June confirmed they will send small observation teams to monitor voting. Deputy FM for Latin America Rander Peña 18 June said govt had invited BRICS+ bloc, including China and Russia, to observe election and confirmed Caracas’ intention to soon join bloc.

Crackdown on opposition figures persisted. Banned opposition candidate María Corina Machado 17 June accused govt of “criminalising the electoral route”, saying 37 opposition activists had been arrested in 2024, four of them in previous week. González same day said govt was creating a “hostile atmosphere” for election, while civil society leaders continued to spotlight security forces’ routine targeting of activists.

Preparations for September presidential election continued amid unrest over water shortages; national oil and gas company signed new foreign partnerships.

Ahead of upcoming polls, some parties announced candidates. President Tebboune 7 June convened electoral body for 7 Sept presidential vote, but still did not announce whether he would run. Front des Forces Socialistes, historic opposition party that has boycotted elections for 25 years, 7 June nominated national secretary Youcef Aouchiche as party’s candidate for upcoming polls; Saïda Neghza, president of main employers’ union Confédération Générale des Entreprises Algériennes, 10 June announced intention to run.

Protests erupted over water shortages. Residents 1 June rioted in Tiaret town, 300km west of capital Algiers, against weeks-long shortages of drinking water in some districts; protesters took to streets torching tires and blocking roads. Tebboune 2 June convened council of ministers and ordered them to “develop an urgent and exceptional program” to resolve problem; measures, including installing supply system relying on nearby wells, partially solved problem in central Tiaret, but issues persisted in other neighbourhoods.

National energy company sought new partnerships with foreign companies. State-owned oil and gas company Sonatrach 7 June signed agreement with China’s Sinopec and 13 June signed deal with American company Chevron, aiming to expand cooperation and boost output from southern gas fields, increasing exports. Agreements came after Sonatrach late May signed other contracts with international companies and consortiums.

In another important development. European Commission 14 June announced dispute settlement procedure against Algeria, accusing it of restricting European exports and investments in violation of 2005 trade agreement. 

Rafah border point with Gaza remained closed despite attempts to reach compromise between Egypt and Israel, while govt continued spending cuts and economic reforms. 

Rafah border crossing remained closed amid Israeli military presence. After Israel early May launched offensive on southern Gazan city of Rafah and seized control of border point – causing govt to suspend aid collaboration – Egyptian, Israeli and U.S. officials 2 June met in capital Cairo to discuss possible arrangements for reopening Rafah crossing to allow humanitarian aid to enter Gaza; govt continued to demand total Israeli withdrawal and that Palestinians or neutral actor, such as EU, manage crossing on Gazan side. FM Shoukry next day reiterated position during meeting with Spanish counterpart in Spain’s capital Madrid. Despite dialogue, border remained closed. Meanwhile, govt continued to refute suggestion it may join potential post-war multinational Arab-led military force responsible for overseeing security in Gaza.

Price hike in bread did not spark protests, despite serious economic hardship. Govt 1 June quadrupled cost of subsidised bread, marking first official price rise in 30 years; increase aimed to reduce subsidy spending in govt budget as part of plan to decrease long-term debt. Hike not met with protests or riots, despite extremely challenging economic conditions nationwide. Meanwhile, EU and govt 29 June signed agreement for €1bn financial aid to support economic reforms to boost private sector.

President reselected PM and assigned him to establish new govt. President Sisi 3 June re-appointed PM Madbouly and tasked him with forming new govt; cabinet reshuffle – expected since Sisi’s re-election in Dec 2023 – likely to take place early July. New govt expected to continue politically unpopular economic reforms in order to gain confidence of international creditors.

Iran held presidential election amid record low turnout; govt responded to censure resolution at UN nuclear agency with plans to expand uranium enrichment capacity as Western sanctions increased. 

Country held presidential election to replace deceased President Raisi. Unelected oversight body, Guardian Council, 9 June approved six candidates for 28 June presidential election triggered by 19 May death of President Raisi; all but one came from conservative end of political spectrum. Voter turnout 28 June hit new historic low of 40 per cent with no candidate securing absolute majority. Runoff between centre-left Masoud Pezeshkian, backed by reformists and moderates, and far-right Saeed Jalili scheduled for 5 July.

Nuclear watchdog censured Iran for failing to cooperate, prompting Tehran’s ire. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director Rafael Grossi 3 June opened Board of Governors meeting by noting ongoing expansion of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles, continued limits to IAEA’s access to Iranian facilities and lack of progress in resolving safeguards concerns. Board 5 June voted 20 to two in favour of censure resolution – the first since Nov 2022 – reiterating calls for Iranian cooperation on IAEA access and safeguards concerns, and stressing potential need for comprehensive and updated assessment by IAEA if such cooperation is not forthcoming. Iran’s foreign ministry next day denounced resolution and around 9-10 June informed IAEA of ongoing expansion of uranium enrichment capacity at Natanz and Fordow sites. U.S. 13 June warned it would “respond accordingly” if expansion was implemented and joined IAEA in calling on Tehran to cooperate with agency on safeguards.

U.S. and Canada further sanctioned Iranian individuals and entities. U.S. 10 June blacklisted ten people, entities and ships for financing Houthis; 17 June unveiled another nine Houthi-related designations and designated Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq member Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya as terrorist organisation; 25 June sanctioned nearly 50 entities and individuals described as Iranian govt’s “shadow banking” network; and 27 June blacklisted three entities and 11 associate vessels for transporting Iranian petroleum and petrochemicals, in response to Iran’s nuclear advancements. Canada 19 June designated Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps as terrorist group.

Iran-backed groups claimed attacks on Israel; Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Federal Supreme Court reached agreement on local elections.

Iran-backed groups continued alleged attacks on Israel. Tehran-aligned Islamic Resistance in Iraq in June claimed dozens of drone attacks against Israeli targets, including in Haifa and Eilat cities, none acknowledged by Israel. Resistance groups 6, 12, 23, 26 June also claimed joint operations against Israel with Yemen’s Houthis (see Yemen). Meanwhile, mobs affiliated with resistance groups early month vandalised and burnt down American restaurants and shops in capital Baghdad on grounds that they finance U.S. support for Israel’s war in Gaza. U.S. 17 June said it targeted Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya (HAAA), part of Islamic Resistance in Iraq, and HAAA leader, Haydar Muzhir Ma’lak al-Sa’idi, with terrorism designation. Islamic Resistance in Iraq 30 June vowed to expand operations, including against U.S. targets, in case of expansion of war in Lebanon.

Kurdish party KDP reached agreement with Supreme Court on Kurdistan parliamentary elections. KDP 9 June announced lifting election boycott after Supreme Court in May reverted February decision to annul minority quota seats in Kurdistan parliament, ordering that five seats be allocated to minorities across Erbil, Sulaymaniyah and Duhok provinces in more even distribution than initial system which put minority seats under de facto control of KDP. Electoral commission 6 June announced reopening window for candidate registration. Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Nechirvan Barzani 26 June set 20 Oct as new date for parliamentary elections, and electoral commission next day further extended deadline for candidate registration until 4 July. With relations between Baghdad and Erbil improving, KRG PM Masrour Barzani 9 June confirmed last remaining federal bank, Trade Bank of Iraq, was added to list of banks at which KRG employees can open salary accounts.

Türkiye continued strikes on PKK, extended flight ban on Sulaymaniyah airport. Türkiye continued airstrikes targeting PKK; notably, Turkish airstrike 19 June caused fires in al-Amadiya district, Duhok governorate. Officials in Sulaymaniyah governorate 8 June said Turkish authorities extended flight ban until Dec due to alleged PKK infiltration on Sulaymaniyah international airport. 

Israel escalated deadly violence in West Bank and approved plans to recognise illegal settlements, while Israeli assault on Gaza Strip continued; Israel and Hizbollah intensified cross-border attacks, threatening expanded conflict.

Israeli security forces and settlers stepped up attacks across West Bank, govt approved plans to “legalise” settlements. Notably, Israeli forces 11 June killed six Palestinians in Kafr Dan village; Israeli airstrike 30 June killed Palestinian and injured five in Nur Shams refugee camp. UN Security Council members, including U.S., 25 June voiced concern about escalating violence in West Bank and expansion of illegal settlements. Israeli govt 27 June approved plan to “legalise” five settlement outposts illegal under Israeli law. 

Israel killed hundreds in operation to free hostages in Gaza. Israel’s June operations in Gaza killed over 1,500, bringing total death toll since Oct to at least 37,765 Palestinians. In central Gaza, Israeli forces 8 June launched operation in Nuseirat refugee camp, rescuing four Israeli hostages while killing 274 Palestinians. In south, Israel continued incursion into Rafah and 17 June claimed control of 70% of city. Israel maintained control of Gaza-Egypt border and Rafah crossing remained closed. Israel Defense Forces 16 June announced “tactical pause” in fighting during daylight along main road in southern Gaza to allow aid in from Kerem Shalom crossing; PM Netanyahu denounced pause. Israeli military 27 June ordered evacuation of residents east of Gaza city, displacing estimated 60,000-80,000 and leaving around 78% of Gaza Strip under evacuation orders. 

Ceasefire proposal made no headway and Israeli war cabinet dissolved. Following U.S. President Biden’s ceasefire proposal outlined late May, negotiations remained stalled, with Hamas demanding Israel’s commitment to permanent ceasefire and withdrawal from Gaza, and Israel refusing to endorse end of war. Meanwhile, centrists Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot 9 June left Israeli war cabinet and coalition govt, citing failure to set out post-war plan for Gaza, and Netanyahu 17 June dissolved war cabinet. Israeli Supreme Court 25 June ruled to end military exemption for ultra-Orthodox men, setting stage for tensions in coalition.

Pressure mounted for all-out war against Hizbollah. Amid domestic pressure notably from displaced Israelis and right-wing ministers for all-out war against Hizbollah, cross-border attacks escalated (see Lebanon).

Spectre of all-out conflict loomed large as Hizbollah and Israel intensified cross-border attacks; crackdown against Syrians continued.

Hizbollah and Israel exchanged threats amid escalation of cross-border attacks. Israel in June targeted southern Lebanon with deadly airstrikes, while Hizbollah launched major rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel, sparking wildfires and injuring several Israelis. Notably, Israeli airstrike 11 June killed Taleb Sami Abdallah, reportedly most senior Hizbollah casualty since Oct 2023, and three others in Jouaiyya town, South governorate. In response, Hizbollah next day launched unprecedented barrage of over 250 rockets into northern Israel, and 13 June targeted nine military sites in what reportedly amounts to group’s largest rocket and drone attack since October. Hizbollah also targeted Israel’s airpower, forcing Israeli warplane to avoid anti-aircraft missile 6 June and shooting down Israeli drone 10 June. Meanwhile, Israeli PM Netanyahu 5 June said Israel is “prepared for a very intense operation”, and Israeli FM Israel Katz 18 June warned of imminent all-out war, saying military’s “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon were approved and validated”. Hizbollah leader Nasrallah next day threatened war with “no restraint and no rules and no ceilings” in case of Israeli offensive, and vowed to attack Cyprus should island open bases and airports for Israeli use. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant 26 June said Israel does not want war but warned it could “take Lebanon back to the Stone Age”.

Crackdown against Syrian refugees continued. Nationwide vilification of Syrian refugees continued in June, with politicians calling for immediate deportations and municipalities targeting Syrians with home evictions and document checks. Notably, Christian party Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea 18 June sent letter to UN Sec Gen Guterres complaining that UN refugee agency (UNHCR) was complicit in imposing burden of Syrian refugees on Lebanon. 

Economic crisis and political deadlock persisted. Leaders made no tangible progress to end double executive vacuum or implement reforms required by International Monetary Fund to unlock financial rescue package. 

In another important development. Syrian national 5 June opened fire on U.S. embassy just outside capital Beirut, leading to shootout with army; assailant was arrested after being injured. 

Deadlock between rival govts continued including over economic matters, while Russia stepped up military assistance to eastern authorities. 

UN representative called out ongoing political deadlock between rival govts. Acting head of UN mission Stephanie Koury 19 June gave first briefing to UN Security Council, highlighting need for “inclusive Libyan-led process to overcome political impasse and support Libyan people” and noting “repetitive pattern” of abductions, arbitrary arrests and detentions. Despite broader political deadlock, High National Elections Commission 9 June launched voter registration process for elections in 60 municipalities due to be held sometime this year, later extending deadline to 7 July amid high voter demand to register. 

Financial management challenges persisted despite foreign mediation. U.S. Embassy in Tunis 11-12 June hosted Libya Economic Dialogue with representatives of political and financial bodies aligned with rival east and west govts, as well as World Bank, U.S. Treasury and UN; dialogue intended to facilitate agreement between parallel govts on 2024 budget, but despite participants welcoming opportunity for discussions, forum concluded without final budgetary accord. U.S. 12 June announced sanctions against Russian state currency-printing company Goznak for allegedly printing money for east-based authorities, including $1bn of “counterfeit Libyan currency”; move came amid Tripoli govt’s allegations that counterfeit money is in circulation although east-based officials continued to claim currency is legal, printed in 2020 through agreement with east-based head of Central Bank. 

Moscow’s military footprint grew. Two Russian warships 16 June arrived at eastern Tobruk Naval Base for three-day visit, during which eastern military authorities announced 250 students had been sent to Russia for training and called for closer partnership in training, maintenance, technical and logistical support and maritime security; U.S. 22 June expressed concern over Russia’s increased military activity in country. 

Govt delayed Tunisia border reopening. Libya and Tunisia 12 June signed agreement to reopen Ras al-Jedir border crossing for humanitarian and diplomatic needs, but Tripoli 24 June delayed full reopening amid presence of local militia from nearby Libyan city of Zuwara; crossing closed since March following clashes between Tripoli-based security forces and local armed groups.