Saudi Arabia continued to push for ceasefire in Gaza, while U.S.-Saudi-led mediation process on Sudan remained stalled.

Riyadh sustained diplomatic efforts on Gaza, Ukraine; Sudan mediation stalled. Saudi-led Arab contact group including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Jordan, Egypt, and Palestinian Authority 3 June announced support for U.S.-sponsored ceasefire proposal for Gaza. Meanwhile, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman 12 June met Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Jeddah city, and Saudi officials 15-16 June attended Ukraine peace summit in Swiss city Luzern. Efforts to restart Jeddah talks between Sudan warring parties remained stalled amid tensions with UAE over latter’s alleged support to Sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. 

In other important developments. Amid liquidity crisis due to spending on Vision 2030 megaprojects, Saudi Arabia 2 June sold $12bn in national oil company Aramco shares. Wall Street Journal 9 June reported that U.S. govt was close to finalising defence treaty with Saudi Arabia as part of wider package aimed at encouraging normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Israeli strikes killed dozens of pro-Iran combatants across country, while latter continued attacks on U.S. bases; Kurdish administration postponed municipal elections in north east.

Israel stepped up deadly strikes on Iran-backed militias, which targeted U.S. base. Alleged Israeli airstrikes 3 June killed Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) adviser Saeed Abyar and 16 Iran-backed fighters north of Aleppo city; 11 June killed six Hizbollah and affiliated fighters near al-Qusayr city, Homs province. Alleged Israeli drones 19 June also struck govt forces in Quneitra and Deraa provinces, killing one officer, while Israeli airstrike targeting pro-Iran centre 26 June killed at least two near capital Damascus. Meanwhile, Iranian-backed groups 10 and 22 June reportedly launched drones at U.S. al-Tanf base, Homs province; U.S. did not acknowledge attacks. Unidentified airstrike 21 June reportedly killed Islamic Resistance in Iraq member near al-Bukamal city, Deir ez-Zor province. 

ISIS attacks continued. Govt forces 7 June launched anti-Islamic State (ISIS) operation with Russian air support amid continued ISIS attacks. Notably in Homs province, ISIS minefield and attack 12 June killed 16 govt forces. U.S. 16 June killed senior ISIS official Usamah Jamal Muhammad Ibrahim al-Janabi in airstrike reportedly in Afrin, Aleppo province.

In north east, Kurdish authorities postponed municipal elections. Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria 6 June postponed municipal elections scheduled for 11 June to August after Turkish President Erdoğan threatened military action should elections proceed and Kurdish National Council (KNC), part of Turkish-backed Syrian National Coalition, questioned elections’ legitimacy, confirming intra-Kurdish tensions. Turkish drone 6 June killed one near Qamishli city, Hasakah province.

In other important developments. In north west, protest movement demanding resignation of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani and prison reform entered fourth month; newly-formed local group Revolutionary Movement Gathering 6 June suspended dialogue with HTS until kidnappings of activists stop. Meanwhile in south, local armed factions continued to demonstrate their standing; notably, Mountain Brigade faction 13 June detained at least three security officers in al-Suwayda city to obtain release of local civil society activist Rita Nawaf al-Aqbani, who was arrested 10 June by security services in Damascus.

Political tensions and scattered unrest continued ahead of presidential election due by October; govt pursued closer ties with China and Iran as EU support wavered. 

Social unrest continued amid uncertainty over presidential vote. Citizens took to social media to denounce hardline police tactics after football fans clashed with police 2 June at Hammadi Agrebi Olympic Stadium in Radès town outside capital Tunis, with sixty arrested and dozens wounded. Inhabitants of Rouai town in Jendouba governate 11 June demonstrated against lack of drinking water; police same day temporarily detained three members of NGO Tunisian Water Observatory, preventing them from covering protests. Presidential election date still unknown despite President Saïed and electoral authority being required to set electoral calendar by late July, at least three months before end of Saïed’s current mandate.

Tunis moved closer to Beijing and Tehran amid fraying relations with EU. Saïed 28 May-1 June participated in Ministerial Conference of Sino-Arab Cooperation Forum in Beijing, resulting in announcement of bilateral strategic partnership in economic, technical and cultural fields. Govt 15 June abolished entry visa requirements for Iranian and Iraqi tourists following Saïed’s late May visit to Tehran. Tensions with European actors continued to grow; despite strong partnership with Rome, Saïed declined invite to 13-15 June G7 summit in Italy, sending PM Hachani instead. EU High Representative Josep Borrell 24 June said Tunisia “very important and longstanding partner” but expressed concern over govt’s “drive closer to Russia, Iran and China”.

In another important development. With Italian support, UN 19 June officially recognised Tunis’ search and rescue zone in Mediterranean Sea as newest measure for limiting migrant flows to Europe.

Polisario Front suspected of involvement in explosion at Moroccan mining infrastructure.

Videos purportedly showing explosion at conveyor belt transporting phosphate near mine in Boucraa town, 100km east of Laayoune in Morocco-controlled Western Sahara, circulated online 4 June. Moroccan media outlets speculated group may be responsible while pro-Polisario activists spoke of planned attack; some believe Polisario also responsible for similar explosion at same phosphate conveyor belt in May 2023. Neither Polisario nor Morocco supported claim of group’s involvement, however, as former feared accusations of terrorism and latter wanted to reassure investors and international partners that Western Sahara is safe and Polisario does not pose threat. 

Houthi attacks on shipping intensified amid continued U.S.-UK airstrikes, while local mediators negotiated reopening of key road in Taiz governorate. 

Houthis sank second ship since start of Red Sea attacks; U.S.-UK airstrikes continued. After hitting two commercial vessels in Gulf of Aden 9 June, Houthi missiles 12 June struck Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned vessel, which sank 19 June, killing one; 13 June struck Palau-flagged ship, injuring one crew member. Houthis 3 June launched new solid-fuel missile at Israeli city Eilat; 6 June claimed first coordinated attacks on Israel with Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq, with drone strikes on port of Haifa; 12, 23, 26 June claimed more joint operations against Israel. Meanwhile, six U.S. airstrikes 17 June hit Hodeida airport and four targeted Kamran Island near Salif port for first time. Intensification of airstrikes since late May highlight failure of Oman-facilitated talks between Houthis and U.S. and increasing concerns over Houthis’ deployment of unmanned boats. UN Security Council 27 June passed resolution demanding Houthis halt attacks on shipping.

Sanaa-Taiz road reopened after ten-year closure. Local mediators 13 Jun negotiated reopening of crucial Sanaa-Taiz road on frontlines between Houthis and govt forces. Houthis agreed to reopening in likely bid to address local discontent and improve financial situation following govt’s banking sector freeze in Houthi-controlled areas.

Houthis detained scores of aid workers. Houthis 6-7 June detained around 60 employees from UN agencies and various local and international NGOs in Sanaa, Hodeida, Saada and Amran cities, over accusations of spying for U.S. and other Western countries. Crackdown comes amid heightened tensions with U.S. over Red Sea attacks and after some aid organisations, including World Food Programme, suspended aid to Houthi-controlled areas. Detentions could lead to closure of more aid organisations in northern Yemen, further exacerbating humanitarian plight.

Houthis and Southern Transitional Council (STC) clashed in Lahj. Houthis in May-June reinforced military presence in Lahj governorate amid fears that local forces could receive U.S. support to push them back from Red Sea coast, and 5 June launched attack on STC forces on frontline between Lahj and Taiz governorates, triggering clashes that killed 18 on both sides.

Row with Niger prompted Chinese mediation; security front remained quiet as U.S. military official visited.

Chinese diplomatic efforts attempted to cool bilateral tensions with Niger. Amid continued dispute as Niger kept its land border closed – which has disrupted trade and led to increased food prices in Benin – govt 6 May prevented Nigerien authorities using Seme terminal port to export crude oil through March inaugurated 2,000km-long Niger-Benin pipeline and 8 May banned maize exports to neighbours, including Niger. Nigerien PM Ali Lamine Zeine 11 May announced border would remain closed for supposed security reasons, further inflaming tensions. China – whose state oil company owns shares in Niger’s oil – 15 May sent delegation to mediate with President Talon, who reversed decision to block crude oil exports and agreed to hold dialogue with Nigerien authorities on potential border reopening and repair of bilateral ties. Media, however, 23 May reported govt had blocked river crossing with Niger used for informal trade, while 27-28 May dialogue attempt in Nigerien capital Niamey faltered.

Jihadist threat remained latent in Northern departments. Head of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), Gen. Michael Langley, 1-3 May met Talon and military officials to discuss defence collaboration amid latent jihadist threat in north. Military 14 May reportedly killed eight militants during operation in Bogo-Bogo district, Alibori department, while no significant jihadist attack reported during month.

In another important development. Amid cost-of-living crisis, trade unions 1 May organised protest in country’s largest city Cotonou but police repressed demonstrations and arrested 72 people; opposition party Les Démocrates demanded their release.

Extreme levels of violence caused hundreds of civilian casualties as insecurity raged; military authorities extended rule by five years.

Extreme levels of violence against civilians continued, leaving hundreds dead. Armed forces 3-9 May allegedly killed over 250 civilians across country; in Sahel region, troops reportedly killed 150 civilians in four villages between Dori and Mansila towns in Yagha province, while in East region, military allegedly killed at least 100 others between towns of Fada N’Gourma and Tankoualou, Komandjari province. Al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) militants reportedly attacked civilians across Centre-North, North, East, and Centre-East regions; notably, JNIM militants 2 May killed twenty civilians in Tagalla village, Sanmatenga province (Centre-North). JNIM also clashed against govt forces and civilian auxiliaries (VDPs); militants 5 May attacked security forces and VDPs in Tapoa-Barrage village, Tapoa province (North), leading to deaths of three JNIM militants, two soldiers and eighteen civilians. In Centre-North’s Namentenga province JNIM 9 May reportedly killed seven VDPs in Bonam village and same day killed six soldiers and 33 VDPs in Boko village. 

Govt delayed transition by five years. Ahead of 1 July supposed end of military rule and after 25 May national conference on state of transition, military authorities announced extension of their rule until 2029, dealing heavy blow to hopes of democratic transition; many civil society and political groups boycotted conference. Earlier, thousands of supporters of military govt 11 May gathered in capital Ouagadougou to endorse an extension of transition and acknowledge “positive results” of regime.

Amid tensions with Côte d’Ivoire, govt strengthened ties with Sahel neighbours. Foreign Ministers of Alliance of Sahel States (AES) 17 May convened in Nigerien capital Niamey to finalise alliance documents; AES 20 May began joint military exercises alongside Chadian and Togolese troops in western Niger. Tensions with Côte d’Ivoire remained high amid series of border incidents; after reported VDP incursions into Ivorian territory throughout May, Ivorian forces 16 May allegedly deployed for one day to Helintira town, Djigoué department, South-West region. 

Security situation deteriorated amid series of deadly grenade attacks in Bujumbura that marked worst violence in city in recent years, as govt blamed rebel group.

Series of grenade attacks struck country’s largest city Bujumbura. Grenade 5 May detonated in Kamenge area in north of city, resulting in three deaths and eight injuries, although conflicting casualty reports emerged. Another attack struck city’s bus park 10 May, reportedly claiming six lives and leaving dozens wounded, but Interior Minister Pierre Nkurikiye refuted reports of any fatalities. Same day, attacker carried out grenade assault in Ngagara district, resulting in his injury and arrest. Nkurikiye 11 May accused RED-Tabara rebels, group reportedly backed by Rwanda, of orchestrating attacks with Rwandan and diaspora support; Rwanda 12 May issued statement dismissing involvement, while RED-Tabara also denied accusations of being responsible same day.

Security situation continued to deteriorate across country. Ruling party youth wing Imbonerakure member suspected of being responsible for 2 May killing of civilian in Mukoro hill, Gitega province. Arbitrary arrests continued as police, in collaboration with Imbonerakure, 16 May detained 44 individuals in Nyanza-lac commune, Makamba province, on charges of “rebellion”. Human rights group Ligue Iteka 2 May released monthly report detailing dozens of murders as well as case of torture of opposition National Congress for Freedom (CNL) member, with police, intelligence agents, soldiers and Imbonerakure suspected as main perpetrators.

In other important developments. Economy continued to plummet due to inflation, fuel and electricity shortages, exacerbated by delayed infrastructure projects and govt mismanagement, while food and transport costs rose. Meanwhile, concerns remained high over continued rise of waters of Lake Tanganyika, which has displaced hundreds of thousands in past seven months, flooded homes and destroyed crops, prompting April govt and UN appeals for support.

Anglophone region violence surged around National Day; election tensions continued to mount. 

Separatist tensions and violence escalated in North West (NW) and South West (SW). Ambazonia rebels and security forces heavily clashed in lead-up to 20 May National Day celebration, killing at least sixteen. Notably, govt forces 5 May targeted separatist strongholds in Ndop town (NW), eliminating prominent commander and two fighters. Separatists 10 May ambushed and killed six gendarmes near Mamfe town (SW) and 14 May clashed with soldiers in Bambui town (NW), killing at least four including two civilians. Govt forces 16 May killed four rebels in Kumbo town (NW), while separatist fighters same day killed two soldiers in Akwaya town (SW). On day of celebrations, suspected separatists 20 May assassinated mayor of Belo town (NW); separatist-imposed “ghost town” strikes 17-20 May paralysed business and movement in NW and SW. Meanwhile, former spokesperson of Ambazonia Defence Forces (ADF) armed group, alias “Capo Daniel”, 4 May urged ceasefire and direct negotiations with Yaoundé; govt dismissed move while ADF denounced him as “traitor”.

Far North unrest continued. Boko Haram attacks persisted as Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) continued “Operation Lake Sanity II”, launched in April to reclaim territory. Fishermen 11-12 May clashed with JAS Bakura faction in three villages around Lake Chad, seizing guns and three motorbikes, casualties unknown. Jihadist militants 12 May carried out multiple attacks, including cattle rustling and abduction of at least two women in Djibrili village, Mayo-Tsanaga division. Meanwhile, govt forces 14 May announced rescue of 300 Boko Haram captives after week-long operation along northern border with Nigeria.

Tensions continued to mount in run-up to 2025 elections. Concerns over govt manipulation of election process grew as senior govt official 2 May cautioned electoral commission against inciting public voting drive amid calls from opposition politicians for mass registration to challenge President Biya; ruling party mayor 4 May halted registration process in a district of Yaoundé reportedly attended overwhelmingly by opposition supporters. Meanwhile, protests early May erupted in West region over alleged registration irregularities by ruling party, while pro-Biya demonstrators in South region 5 May blocked roads to hinder opposition activity.

Transitional justice efforts faced challenges as court issued arrest warrant for former president but govt dissolved reconciliation commission; insecurity persisted. 

Authorities’ transitional justice record remained mixed. President Touadéra 8 May ordered dissolution of Truth, Justice, Reparation and Reconciliation Commission (CVJRR), created as part of 2019 peace agreement between govt and fourteen armed groups; presidential decree remained unpublished so uncertainty persisted over whether move only removes current office holders or dismantles institution entirely. Communication Minister 14 May attributed dissolution to governance, operational and financial issues within CVJRR. Earlier, UN-backed Special Criminal Court 30 April issued warrant for former President Bozizé’s arrest for allegedly ordering crimes against humanity committed Feb 2009-March 2013 by army and presidential guard; NGO Human Rights Watch 3 May said move provided chance for Bozizé to “face justice” but presidential adviser Fidèle Gouandjika same day suggested warrant aims to incite ethnic tensions. President Umaro Embaló Sissoco of Guinea-Bissau, where Bozizé is in exile, 1 May said he would not extradite former president, citing lack of legal framework.

Climate of insecurity persisted against backdrop of intercommunal tensions. Intercommunal and rebel violence continued in hinterland, notably in south west. Suspected armed herders 5 May destroyed two churches in Boganangone town, Lobaye prefecture, resulting in unconfirmed number of casualties. Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) fighters 12 May attacked mining site in Gaga town, Ombella-M’Poko prefecture, killing four Chinese miners and injuring seven. Meanwhile, 100 ethnic Azandé fighters officially integrated into army 1 May after intensive training by Russian paramilitary Africa Corps, formerly Wagner Group, in Obo town, Haut-Mbomou prefecture; despite govt portraying step as improving army integration, militants reaffirmed tribal allegiance by calling themselves “Azandé Wagner”, while fears grew over group’s escalating tensions with Fulani-led armed group Union for Peace in the Central African Republic (UPC) in south east. U.S. 30 May imposed sanctions on two companies based in country for supporting “malign activities” of Russian paramilitaries. Meanwhile, risk of unrest grew in capital Bangui as security forces continued search operations in Muslim neighbourhood, which have resulted in arbitrary arrests since April.