Military operations continued against jihadists, bandits and other armed groups, but killings and abductions persisted while herder-farmer and separatist violence also flared. 

Army reported gains in anti-jihadist campaign in North East. Govt continued “clearance campaign” against Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram militants around Lake Chad and Sambisa Forest in Borno state. Notably, troops 9 May raided ISWAP enclave and killed six fighters near Goniri village, Damboa area, while army 19 May said it rescued 386 people from Boko Haram strongholds in Sambisa Forest. ISWAP 28 May killed 31 fishermen with 40 others missing in Kukawa area, and 30 May ordered all residents of area to leave by 1 June or be killed. 

Criminal group violence remained high in North West and North Central zones. Despite govt operations, armed groups continued killings and abductions in several states including Kaduna, Katsina, Kogi, Niger, Plateau and Zamfara. Notably in Zamfara, gunmen 7-11 May killed almost 50 and abducted over 100 civilians in eight villages in Anka and Birnin-Magaji areas. In Plateau, armed group 20 May killed around 50 in attack in Wase area. In Niger, armed groups 24-27 May reportedly killed at least six people, raped at least ten women and girls, and abducted 160 others in Munya area.

Herder-farmer violence persisted in North Central zone. In Benue state, armed group 3 and 14 May attacked Ogbaulu village in Agatu area, killing at least thirteen villagers; local official blamed attacks on herders. Meanwhile in Plateau, gunmen 8 May killed two herders and hundreds of cattle in Bassa area; chair of local Fulani organisation condemned attempts to “annihilate” community.

Biafra separatists and military continued to clash in South East zone. In Imo state’s Orsu area, army 7 May said troops had killed key commander of separatist group Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) armed wing Eastern Security Network and two of his lieutenants near Ihiteukwa town. In Abia state, gunmen 17 May killed two soldiers and civilian in Aba city and 30 May killed five soldiers and six civilians in Obingwa area; military blamed attacks on IPOB, vowed fierce response. 

Regional and international actors continued to accuse Rwanda of complicity in security challenges faced by its neighbours. 

Govt firmly denied involvement with neighbouring rebel groups. Rwanda 4 May rejected U.S. and Congolese claims that it had, alongside M23 rebel group, attacked displacement camp in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), branding accusations “ridiculous” and “absurd”. Authorities also 12 May issued statement denying any connection or reason to be involved in series of grenade attacks in Burundian city of Bujumbura, urging Burundi to “address its internal issues”. Meanwhile, DRC Mine Minister 8 May called for international embargo on metal exports from Rwanda, alleging its support for rebel groups stealing natural resources.

In another important development. Army spokesperson Ronald Rwivanga 27 May announced govt had deployed additional 2,000 soldiers to assist Mozambique in combating resurgent attacks by Islamic State-linked insurgents in Cabo Delgado province, amid southern African military mission withdrawal (see Mozambique).

Federal govt met member states amid continued political tensions, while clan violence surged in several areas; conflict with Al-Shabaab remained largely quiet. 

Govt held consultations with most member states to discuss key issues. Federal govt and member state leaders 14-17 May gathered in capital Mogadishu for National Consultative Conference (NCC) to discuss contentious issues, including constitutional review process, operations against Al-Shabaab and status of Nov 2024 member state elections amid speculation they may be delayed; officials from Puntland did not attend following March suspension of recognition of Mogadishu-based central govt and pulling out of NCC process in Jan 2023. At NCC conclusion, govt reported participants had endorsed federal parliament’s approval of first four chapters of constitution. Independent constitutional review commission 18 May began discussion of five further chapters. Political figures who oppose govt’s constitutional changes remained vocal, including Puntland President Said Deni 18 May and former federal Presidents Sheikh Sharif and Farmajo next day criticising govt and NCC. 

Clan conflicts erupted in Southwest, Hirshabelle and Galmudug states. In Bay region in Southwest, state security forces and clan militia early May clashed several times in Berdale town, killing elder and militia member, after state govt sent troops to dismantle militia group; tensions remained high throughout month. Significant violence 13 May also erupted in Hirshabelle between Abgal sub-clans in Bur Shiiq and Biyo Adde villages in Middle Shabelle region, killing over 30. Clashes also reported in Galmudug in late April between Marehaan and Dir clans in Abudwaq district of Galgaduud region.

Govt offensive against Al-Shabaab remained at stalemate. Military conducted episodic airstrikes targeting militants in Galmudug and Hirshabelle states with support from international partners, but launched no major ground operations. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab conducted several small-scale bombings and assassinations, particularly in Mogadishu including 3 May shooting of senior police officer, but also did not carry out large-scale attack.

In other important developments. Amid rising concerns over resurgence of piracy off Somali coast, EU naval force 10 May arrested six suspected pirates attempting to hijack oil tanker in Gulf of Aden and 23 May rescued cargo ship being hijacked.

Govt continued to prepare for November elections while tensions with Dhulbahante fighters remained high along Sool frontline.

Authorities progressed with vote arrangements. Ahead of 13 Nov concurrent party and presidential elections, House of Representatives 12 May approved presidential appointees to committee overseeing registration of political associations that will run in polls to decide which can become political parties; step further eases fears elections could be delayed. 

Tensions remained high but stable along Sool region frontline. Despite late April clashes in Sanaag region between Haber Jeclo sub-clan of Isaaq (Somaliland’s largest clan) and Dhulbahante clan members, frontlines between govt troops and those from SSC-Khatumo (self-declared administration for Dhulbahante community) in Sool region stayed largely quiet. Meanwhile, SSC-Khatumo leader Abdulkadir Firdhiye 14 May visited Somali capital Mogadishu for consultations between Somali federal govt and member states (see Somalia), but did not participate as full federal member state.

Authorities pursued preparations for implementation of Jan port deal with Ethiopia. Technical committee from Hargeisa early May announced it had finished its work and was awaiting counterparts from Addis Ababa, while President Bihi 18 May said he was certain agreement would be implemented “shortly”.

Tight general elections held as ruling African National Congress (ANC) projected to lose majority; dispute over Zuma’s eligibility increased risk of unrest. 

Polls held as ANC projected to lose majority for first time. General elections took place 29 May as voting day went peacefully, with high voter turnout expected to be reported; full results announced in June. Amid heightened tensions in lead-up to vote, Constitutional Court 20 May barred former President Zuma, leader of newcomer uMkhonto weSizwe party (MKP), from contesting polls due to his 2021 conviction for contempt of court; decision overturned Electoral Court’s April ruling permitting Zuma to run. MKP alleged that Independent Electoral Commission and Constitutional Court colluded with ANC to rig elections. MKP members 25 May broke into ballot storage sites in Chesterville and Hammarsdale towns in KwaZulu-Natal province, alleging voting material had been altered, and also threatened election officer in Chesterville; electoral commission condemned incidents. President Ramaphosa 26 May listed govt achievements in speech on South African Broadcasting Corporation, prompting MKP and opposition Democratic Alliance to each file urgent affidavit in Electoral Court accusing Ramaphosa of violating electoral code of conduct by using presidential office to influence elections outcome; Ramaphosa 29 May said he merely provided update on country’s state of readiness for elections. 

Ruling party members clashed with opposition supporters. ANC members and supporters 19 May clashed with members of populist opposition Economic Freedom Fighters during ANC campaign event in Seshego township, Limpopo province, as rival party members reportedly threw stones escalating into exchange of gunfire that wounded two bystanders. Electoral Commission 23 May convened both parties to diffuse tensions in area ahead of polls. Suspected political dispute between ANC and MKP members 26 May in Kathlehong township, Gauteng province, resulted in two MKP members shot and killed. 

Kenya hosted talks between holdout opposition groups and govt, intercommunal violence remained rampant, and disruption of oil exports deepened economic crisis. 

Govt and holdout opposition groups held peace talks in Kenya. High-level mediation 9 May started in Kenyan capital Nairobi, bringing together govt and some opposition groups that did not sign 2018 peace accord, including South Sudan United Front, Real-Sudan People’s Liberation Movement and South Sudan People’s Movement/Army (SSPM/A); National Salvation Front led by Thomas Cirillo and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition Kitwang led by Simon Gatwech did not participate, dimming hopes for wider deal. SSPM/A leader Stephen Buay 20 May accused govt of sending agents to Nairobi to target him and threatened to withdraw from talks. Kenyan authorities same day launched investigation into claims; in the meantime, Buay agreed to continue participating.

Communal violence persisted in several regions. Notably, in Jonglei region alleged Murle ambush 9 May killed three in Duk county; suspected armed Lou Nuer youth from Jonglei 12 May reportedly raided villages in Likuangole county, Greater Pibor Administrative Area, abducting nine people and raiding cattle. Authorities from Abyei area and Warrap State early May traded blame for deadly violence and cattle raids. Fighting between Balanda and Azande in Tombura county, Western Equatoria, reportedly displaced over 10,000 by 2 May. 

Disruption of oil exports fuelled fiscal crisis. Breakdown of main oil pipeline continued to threaten currency collapse and fuel spike in food costs, raising risk of renewed instability and violence. Central Bank governor 3 May said oil reserves are “at historically low levels”, affecting foreign currency reserves. Official 28 May claimed operations would resume imminently, though acknowledged oil had gelled along pipeline; industry experts maintained that repairs necessary to restart exports would take at least months to complete.

Concerns over election preparedness persisted. U.S. 9 May warned it would not support electoral process without urgent govt action to implement 2018 peace agreement. Body tasked with tracking implementation of agreement 23 May said there was “no evidence of sufficient preparation” for elections. Meanwhile, UN Security Council 30 May renewed sanctions on South Sudan for one year, including arms embargo, travel bans and asset freezes.

Full-scale conflict pitting Sudanese army (SAF) and allied Darfuri armed groups against Rapid Support Forces (RSF) erupted in North Darfur’s capital El-Fasher, threatening to inflame intercommunal conflict further in coming weeks.

Fighting broke out in El-Fasher. Clashes 10 May erupted between SAF in alliance with Darfuri armed groups and RSF in El-Fasher, killing and displacing thousands. SAF and armed groups held western and central neighbourhoods, and RSF controlled north and east sectors while besieging city. Outside El-Fasher, RSF-affiliated militias attacked non-Arab villages, while SAF airstrikes targeted RSF positions but also communities allegedly supporting paramilitary, including mostly Arab El-Zurug and Kutum villages; attacks threaten to aggravate intercommunal conflict in coming weeks. UN special adviser on the prevention of genocide 21 May warned “the risk of genocide exists” and is “growing”. Fighting obstructed aid deliveries as World Food Programme 3 May warned of “widespread starvation and death”.

Hostilities escalated across several other states without decisive gains. SAF-RSF clashes expanded from flashpoints including Babanussa town, West Kordofan state, North Kordofan’s capital El-Obeid, and Gezira state capital Wad Madani, to multiple towns and rural villages, increasing displacement and civilian casualties; RSF 19 May announced seizure of Um Rawaba area, North Kordofan. SAF continued offensives in capital Khartoum and sister cities Omdurman and Bahri, particularly in Bahri’s Jiali oil refinery area, but failed to secure clear-cut victory. Parties continued mobilising local communities, exacerbating violence and complicating future peacemaking efforts. In and beyond Darfur, restrictions on free movement, arbitrary killings, arrests and lootings by both sides and their supporters underscored growing lawlessness and impunity across country.

Several political coalitions called for transfer of power to civilians. SAF-aligned political coalition “National Forces Coordination”, which includes over 40 political parties, armed groups, community leaders and civil society organisations, 8 May endorsed political charter proposing three-year transitional govt with joint military-civilian Sovereign Council and transitional legislative council. Anti-war coalition Tagadum, which claims neutrality between warring parties, 26 May launched founding conference of expanded coalition in Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, attended by over 600 key stakeholders; conference led to adoption of Tagadum’s political position, new leadership structure and basic principles for political process.

Ruling party won overwhelming majority in April elections and new constitution expected to extend President Gnassingbé’s decades-long rule came into effect.

Following 29 April legislative and regional votes, provisional results released 4 May showed ruling Union for the Republic party won 108 out of 113 parliamentary seats and 137 of 179 council seats, which Constitutional Court 13 May confirmed. Opposition parties expressed doubts about results but international actors including African Union and West African regional bloc ECOWAS commended electoral process. Meanwhile, President Gnassingbé 6 May signed new constitution into effect, marking beginning of Fifth Republic and transition from presidential to parliamentary system, amid persistent concerns president would use new structure to extend stay in power.

Political tensions grew amid threats of further strikes, while govt engaged with DR Congo (DRC) on anti-militant cooperation.

Threats of strikes continued amid persistent fiscal policy discontent. Fear of further industrial action persisted, as business groups 8 May threatened two-month long strike from 20 June after failed talks with President Museveni, spurred by discontent over fiscal and tax policies and govt’s promotion of electronic tax payments. Parliament 16 May approved new taxes on fuel and construction materials despite protests, potentially leading to price increases. Meanwhile, Museveni same day signed deal with Kenya to import refined petroleum directly, aiming to offset impact of fuel tax hikes.

Army chief scrutinised operations against Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). Newly appointed head of army and Museveni’s son Lt-Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba 6 May engaged in talks with Congolese military leadership to assess progress in joint operations against Islamic State-affiliated ADF rebels in DRC; joint force 18 May captured prominent ADF commander skilled in explosives in Ituri province in eastern DRC. Security forces 4 May said they had discovered four suspected ADF bombs in capital Kampala.

Disputes within opposition political parties escalated. Former opposition leader Mathias Mpuuga faced continued censure from National Unity Platform (NUP) party for accepting financial parliamentary awards, sparking tensions with party leader Robert Kyagulanyi, alias ‘Bobi Wine’. Similarly, Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) appeared set for split, with former presidential candidate Kizza Besigye poised to lead breakaway faction over alleged ties between current leadership and Museveni. 

In other important developments. Opposition parties 2 May welcomed UK late April announcement of corruption-related sanctions on three politicians, including Parliament Speaker Anita Among, as potential deterrent against mismanagement of public resources, while govt expressed surprise and promised both investigation and examination of legality of sanctions. Meanwhile, U.S. 30 May also announced corruption-related sanctions on trio and one other politician, alongside sanctioning former deputy army chief for alleged “gross violations of human rights” including extrajudicial killings by military.

Ruling party supporters disrupted public hearings on controversial NGO bill while police cracked down on informal money traders amid implementation of new currency.

Govt-linked groups disturbed public consultations on contentious law. Govt 13-17 May held public hearings on controversial proposed Private Voluntary Organisations Amendment Bill that critics argue will be used to control civil society organisations. Suspected ruling party ZANU-PF supporters disrupted hearings in cities of Chinhoyi, Gweru, capital Harare and Masvingo; participants 16 May fled consultation in Masvingo due to fight between ZANU-PF supporters and residents that reportedly left several people injured. 

Govt targeted dissenters of new currency. Govt cracked down on informal money traders in effort to enforce acceptance of new Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency – inaugurated in April and facing struggles to win consumer confidence – as police 15 May announced they had arrested 224 alleged illegal currency traders and frozen 90 bank accounts since ZiG introduced; govt 9 May announced it will levy $14,800 fines on businesses who refuse to use official exchange rate while Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube 14 May urged war veterans in Bulawayo city to “protect” ZiG by “fighting” informal money traders. Meanwhile, police 13 May arrested Neville Mutsvanga, son of ZANU-PF spokesperson Chris Mutsvangwa, on charges of illegally dealing in foreign currency, in case reportedly linked to suspected ZANU-PF factional battle between President Mnangagwa and VP Chiwenga. 

In another important development. Harare court 21 May ordered army chief Lt. Gen. Sanyatwe and Defence Minister Oppah Muchinguri to pay $29,000 compensation to protester who was attacked and shot during 2019 demonstrations, when authorities deployed military to crush countrywide anti-govt protests sparked by increase in fuel prices.