CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Breakthrough announcement of bilateral India-Pakistan 16-18 February talks after 6 January meeting between Indian PM Vajpayee and Pakistan’s President Musharraf. All Parties Hurriyat Conference (Kashmir separatist alliance) met Vajpayee in New Delhi 23 January and confirmed their commitment to peaceful resolution of Kashmir issue. Violence continued between hardline Kashmiri separatists and Indian forces. Grenade thrown by suspected militants at mosque in Jammu 8 January wounded 18. Separate clashes between Indian troops and Kashmiri militants claimed 3 soldiers, 22 militants including several separatists leaders. Pakistan proposed March talks to discuss bus service between Kashmir capitals Muzaffarabad and Srinagar, opposed by Kashmiri militants.
Violence continues in Aceh after Free Aceh Movement (GAM) called for 2 day ceasefire to facilitate release of 80 hostages. Indonesian military (TNI) agreed on condition GAM formally renounce tactic of civilian hostage taking. Total of 143 captured separatists to be transferred to detention centres on Java. Explosion in cafe 10 January in South Sulawesi town of Palopo killed 4. Police questioned and released 7 people in relation to blast. Cache of weapons found in Poso by authorities, suspected links to Jemaah Islamiah. Supreme Court upheld Bali bomber Amrozi’s death sentence. Trial commenced 27 January of Mohammad Rais accused of recruiting Marriot hotel suicide bomber. Threat of state of emergency being declared in West Papua ahead of elections. Tensions rising on border with East Timor (see East Timor section). National Intelligence Agency (BIN) to be given broader powers after President Megawati signed decree authorising agency to open offices in all provinces, regencies and municipalities across Indonesia.
Pyongyang offered ‘bold concession’ 6 January after plans for 6-way talks stalled in December: U.S. economic aid, end to sanctions and removal from ‘axis of evil’ list in return for suspended nuclear power program and halt to nuclear weapon construction. Unofficial U.S. delegation visited Yongbyon nuclear site, noted empty spent-fuel facility. North Korea claimed the 8,000 fuel rods had been reprocessed to extract plutonium. Visit seen as North Korean effort to show nuclear capabilities. Gestures to Japan indicated attempts to normalise relations before new talks.
Informal ceasefire again agreed between Karen National Union (KNU), Myanmar’s largest rebel group, and Yangon. KNU senior figure insisted further talks needed. Karen National Progressive Party claimed 14 January that Myanmar troops had forced 2,000 ethnic Karennis from their homes. Government released 26 National League for Democracy members.
Conflict with Maoist rebels continued unabated. Mayor of southern city of Birgunj killed 15 January; bus explosion killed 3 on 16 January; government soldiers killed 7 Maoist rebels in Dolokha district 21 January. Students claimed anti- monarchy protests in Kathmandu and Pokhara resulted in 120 arrests. Pro-democracy protesters in Kathmandu 30 January called for King Gyanendra to fire loyalist PM. Maoists indicated could accept constitutional monarchy if king gave up control of army.
Parliament’s vote of confidence extended President Musharraf’s presidency until end of 2007. Vote followed deal with Islamist coalition (MMA) in exchange for promise to retire as chief of army staff by end of 2004. Musharraf addressed parliament for first time since coup 4 years ago, promised to clamp down on extremism; heckled by opposition lawmakers during speech. Two planes containing some opposition members diverted, preventing members’ attendance at address. Karachi car bomb outside Anglican cathedral 15 January wounded 11. Western intelligence sources said Pakistani scientists traded uranium enrichment technology with North Korea, Libya and Iran. Government admitted nuclear scientists may have been involved in proliferation deals. Officially 9 nuclear scientists detained, causing domestic upheaval as supporters condemned arrests of ‘national heroes’. Dr Qadeer Khan, ‘father of the bomb’, sacked as government scientific advisor 31 January.
Legality of 5-month adjournment of parliament questioned by ombudsman. Government adjourned parliament to escape vote of no confidence after failing to amend constitution. Deployment of 300 Australian police and civil servants to address growing lawlessness as condition of Australian aid program to take place within weeks.
President Arroyo announced progress in peace talks with rebel groups. Exploratory talks announced for February between government and secessionist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). Bomb in Mindanao linked to local political rivalries killed 10. Formal talks between government and communist New People's Army (NPA) also to resume in February. NPA attacked power plant 10 January killing 3. President Arroyo met Malaysian PM Badawi in Manila for talks on southern peace process. Malaysia to send truce monitors. Military officers under investigation following accusations that defence secretary ordered soldiers to spy on opposition candidates for presidential elections.
Feud between President Kumaratunga and PM Wickremesinghe continued with both sides intransigent over control of defence ministry. Sri Lankan government demanded 9 January Kumaratunga renegotiate ceasefire with Tamils or give up security portfolio appropriated in November. Kumaratunga claimed she could keep office 1 year longer than expected, until 2006, due to early investiture and second secret inauguration ceremony: claim rejected by government. Snap elections possible as Kumaratunga’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (in opposition) signed alliance with Marxist People’s Liberation Front (JVP), Sri Lanka’s third largest party, creating The United People’s Freedom Alliance. JVP opposed to devolution of power to minority Tamils. Tamil Tigers (LTTE) continued to warn that peace process under threat. Norway replaced leader of monitoring mission whom Kumaratunga had accused of anti-government bias. Delegation from LTTE travelled to Norway for talks 28 January.
Under U.S. pressure, President Chen Shui- ban modified language of proposed 20 March referendum: voters now to be asked whether they approve increasing purchases of U.S. weapons should China fail to redeploy missiles aimed at Taiwan; earlier version involved direct call for removal of missiles. China condemned revised language, saying referendum would bring tensions to “brink of danger”. French President Jacques Chirac called poll “grave mistake”, angering Taipei.
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