Wave of violence in south blamed on separatist Islamist militants. Weapons depot looting and arson attacks on 21 government schools 4 January, followed by 10 deaths in several incidents. In response, martial law declared in Pattani, Narathiwat and Yala provinces in predominantly Muslim south. Arrest warrants for 4 Muslim militants issued. Security clampdown fuelling resentment. Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra blamed lethal machete attacks on 3 Buddhist monks as work of separatists attempting to ignite religious conflict.

Government called for UN to extend its mission beyond 20 May deadline. At present 2000 UN personnel in East Timor. UN Secretary General to report to Security Council in February. Australian Defence Force chief, General Peter Cosgrove, said his troops should remain in East Timor even if UN pulls out in May. Two issues raising tensions on border with Indonesia: East Timorese upset by Indonesian military exercises on Palau Batek, small island off coast of East Timorese enclave. Secondly, group composed of disgruntled former Fretilin members, Kolimau, allegedly infiltrating from East Timor into West Timor to recruit former militias there to help destabilise East Timor once UN peacekeepers withdraw May 2004.

Turkey offered to hold trilateral talks with Armenia and Azerbaijan over disputed Azerbaijani territory, occupied by Armenian forces since 1993.

Authorities rejected opposition party appeal for release on bail of dozens of detainees arrested during demonstrations following fraudulent 15 October presidential election. Baku courts ruled 4 opposition leaders and editor of opposition daily must remain in pretrial detention for further 3 months. Council of Europe and Human Rights Watch condemned government’s post-election crackdown.

Failed attempts by NATO's Stabilisation Force (SFOR) to locate former Bosnian Serb president Radovan Karadzic and military leader Ratko Mladic caused Hague War Crimes Tribunal to question Bosnian and Western political will. Posters in support of Karadzic appeared in his wartime base, Pale, after 4-day NATO-led operation failed. Police arrested former president Jelavic on organised crime charges. High Rep. Paddy Ashdown launched attempt to unite city of Mostar institutions presently divided between Bosnian Muslims and Croats.

Conflicting versions of end to last month’s incursion by Chechen rebels into neighbouring Dagestan. Russian officials say troops killed all but 3 rebels; latter say most made it back to Chechnya. Meanwhile, fighting continues with no end in sight. Official Russian statistics showed sharp rise in number of rebel attacks in 2003.

Explosion 11 January destroyed buildings; no one claimed responsibility. Truce between nationalists and French government has lasted 2 months.

Prospects for reunification improved as new coalition government formed in Turkish Cyprus. Pro- reunification Republican party leader and new prime minister Mehmet Ali Talat joined by Democrat Party’s Serdar Denktash, son of President Rauf Denktash. 1 May set by new government as date to find solution based on previously rejected UN plan. EU leaders pushed Turkey to encourage resolution of Cyprus issue in light of its bid for EU membership. Turkish PM Erdogan met UN Secretary General Kofi Annan 24 January and asked for renewed efforts by UN to find solution. Annan conditioned talks on both sides agreeing to UN blueprint as basis for negotiations and referendum on results. Sec. State Powell indicated willingness of U.S. to help sides reach Agreement.

Mikheil Saakashvili received over 96% of vote in 4 January presidential election, reported by international and local observers to have been significantly fairer than 2 November parliamentary vote: inaugurated 25 January amid festive atmosphere in Tbilisi. New parliamentary election set for 28 March. Following Saakashvili victory, Aslan Abashidze, authoritarian leader of Ajara region, reimposed state of emergency and arrested members of pro-Saakashvili youth organisation, Kmara. Indications Abashidze’s regime weakening vis à vis Tbilisi; following conciliatory gestures from both sides, tensions high in anticipation of move by Abashidze’s opponents, backed by Tbilisi, to oust him. U.S. said would help pay for closure of Russian military bases in Georgia, including one in Ajara, after Russia claimed withdrawal would take 11 years. Following meeting with UN special envoy Heidi Tagliavini, Abkhaz foreign minister said ready to resume peace talks with Tbilisi. Turkey seeking mediation role.

President Nursultan Nazarbayev warned international organisations to stop interfering in Kazakhstan’s internal affairs following widespread criticism of restrictive draft media law, approved by parliament in December. Law still to be considered by senate.