CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Head of UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) Harri Holkeri warned Kosovo’s parliament it had no authority to debate changes to Constitutional Framework. Urged Serb leaders to participate in working groups on plan for implementation of UN’s standards (to be met before discussion of final status) after they refused to participate following UNMIK’s rejection of their objections to the Kosovo standards document. UNMIK called on Belgrade to return more than 200 exhumed bodies to Albanian Kosovar relatives. Hague tribunal allowed 3 indicted war criminals to be tried in Serbia. Kosovo PM Rexhepi replaced senior official responsible for liaison with UNMIK at behest of UNMIK, who accused official of undermining public opinion on cooperation between government and UN mission.
Discovery of listening devices in offices of several opposition MPs provoked political storm. MPs blame National Security Service (NSS), while government says opposition trying to generate controversy ahead of 2005 elections. Seven opposition parties joined to form united bloc; say they will back 1 candidate to run against President Akayev.
Talks held in Brussels 16 January between officials from EU, Moldova and Ukraine regarding possible joint border monitoring regime to stem smuggling across Transdniestrian portion of Moldova-Ukraine frontier. In Tiraspol, Transdniestrian officials again rejected idea of placing OSCE peacekeepers in region between breakaway republic and Moldova.
40-year-old church dispute re-surfaced. Government attempted to maintain unity in Macedonian Orthodox Church (MPC) by arresting Orthodox Bishop Zoran Vraniskovski, who advocates return to Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) control. Autocephaly for MPC, declared in 1967, not recognised by Serbian Holy Synod and therefore by other Orthodox churches. Bishop Zoran reported to have support of 30% of Orthodox Macedonian monks. Ten years after being established Albanian-language Tetovo University given full legal status 21 January amid protests by ethnic Macedonian opposition parties.
DUP leader Ian Paisley to retire from European Parliament in June, but will remain Assembly Member and head of DUP. Review of Good Friday Agreement to begin 3 February. Review talks team boosted by defection of former Ulster Unionists. DUP had first face to face meeting with Irish government 29 January marking ‘new phase’ in relations.
Political instability continues. On 27 January Parliament failed to pick Speaker, and second session scheduled for 30 January postponed indefinitely. Process stalled by disagreement between 2 largest democratic parties, Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and Democratic Party (DS). DSS refuses to join majority government with DS unless DS cleans house of allegedly corrupt elements. DSS efforts to form minority government with Serbian Movement of Renewal-New Serbia coalition (SPO-NS) and G17+ failed. DSS leader Vojislav Kostunica’s recurrent suggestion to form a “concentration” government of all political parties including parties of war crimes indictees Slobodan Milosevic and Vojislav Seselj, failed due to refusal of DS and G17+ to support. Threat of new elections looms. Newly-passed US appropriations bill mentions arrest of Hague indictee Ratko Mladic as condition of U.S. financial assistance. Parties with either explicit or ambiguous anti-western positions now hold majority of parliamentary seats, and Milosevic-era oligarchy has played strong and worrying role in elections and coalition negotiations.
Spain’s Constitutional Court upheld ban on Basque separatist party Batasuna after it refused to condemn ETA, the pro-Basque independence group.
Court sentenced Shamsuddin Shamsuddinov, deputy chairman of opposition Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP), to 16 years in jail on variety of charges, including organising illegal armed group during Tajikistan’s 1992-1997 civil war. IRP says charges part of crackdown on opposition and show regime’s increasing disregard for 1997 peace agreement which ended war and brought IRP into government. President Rakhmonov sacked presidential guard commander, adding to growing list of officials sacked in recent weeks.
Turkish government agreed to compensate Turkish Kurds for human rights abuses at hands of security forces. Signed total ban on capital punishment. Military voiced concerns about Kurdish federation in northern Iraq, indicated federation should be based on geographical, not ethnic, lines. Incirlik airbase near Syrian border reopened to U.S. for logistical and humanitarian missions, after being closed for duration of Iraq war.
Under U.S. pressure, authorities lifted exit visa requirement for Turkmen citizens, but move unlikely to herald significant change in region’s most repressive state.
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