CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Uganda

Government accused Sudan of supporting Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) rebels. Fighting continues between Ugandan armed forces and LRA rebels in north. Cabinet proposed removing constitutional two-term limit for president – paving way for President Yoweri Museveni to stand for re- election. Cabinet also proposes increasing powers for president and restricting parliament’s powers.

Zimbabwe

Government shut down only private daily newspaper. Charged five of paper’s directors and plans to charge its journalists for operating without licence. President Mugabe to be excluded from Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Nigeria in December as Zimbabwe still subject to Commonwealth sanctions. Zimbabwe's vice president, Simon Muzenda, died on 20 September. Government issued new temporary banknotes, valid only to 31 January 2004. Government plans to set up special courts to deal with economic and financial crimes.

Asia

Afghanistan

Attacks by extremists against U.S. forces, government troops and aid workers continue in south. Four Afghans working for Danish NGO killed on 8 September; two other aid workers killed on 24 September while delivering clean drinking water to village in Helmand province. Growing tension between Kabul and Islamabad: Afghan Government accuses Pakistan of doing too little to prevent militants from regrouping in Pakistan. Both have agreed to reinforce troops on border to monitor crossings. Battles between local commanders in north continue to cause displacement and civilian casualties. Demobilisation and reintegration program delayed by government failure to reform defence ministry. Draft constitution to be unveiled in early October. American special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad named U.S. ambassador. NATO experts to study feasibility of expanding ISAF mandate beyond Kabul; Germany announced readiness to deploy 250-450 troops to northern city of Kunduz. More than 100 Taliban fighters killed since Coalition Operation Mountain Viper launched on 25 August.

China (internal)

China upped its rhetoric against militants in northwestern province of Xinjiang, claiming Uighur separatists train in Pakistan. Russian officials, fearful of damaging relations with China, denied visa to Dalai Lama. Latter says ready to return to Tibet after 45-year exile if permitted by Beijing.

India

Police arrested four in connection with Mumbai blast of 25 August that killed 52 people, and shot dead its alleged mastermind. Cache of over 20,000 AK-47 rounds seized in Kolkata, which police say was bound for Kashmir. Violence continues in northeastern state of Manipur where security forces shot dead at least 13 rebels in two separate incidents. 12 (11 of whom were police) were killed in landmine explosion in Bihar state. Government blamed attack on outlawed Naxalite groups. Peace talks with Naga separatists commenced 17 September in Amsterdam.

India-Pakistan (Kashmir)

Surge in violence casts shadow over progress in Indo-Pak normalisation. Sources say September fatalities exceed 300 – mostly rebels. War of words in UN General Assembly as Indian PM Vajpayee accused Pakistani President Musharraf of “terrorist blackmail”, calling latter’s offer of ceasefire an admission that Pakistan supports militants. Fragile situation in Kashmir dealt another blow as All Party Hurriyat Conference (separatist umbrella group) split. Kashmiri militant groups warned of more violence in valley.

Indonesia

More than 15 men suspected of links to Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) arrested in central Java; Hambali's younger brother arrested in Karachi together with five Indonesian and 13 Malaysian suspected JI members. Abu Bakar Ba'asyir, alleged spiritual leader of JI, sentenced to four years for treason, but acquitted of leading JI – both Ba'asyir and Attorney General’s Office appealing sentence. Bali bomber Ali Imron given life sentence. Indonesian police warn that JI planning further bombings. Christian-Muslim tensions simmer in Poso. Peace seems to have held in Maluku in recent months where fighting between Christians and Muslims has claimed at least 5,000 lives since 1999; Government lifted three-year state of emergency on 15 September after new governor installed without incident. Military operation against separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) - launched mid-May after peace negotiations broke down - looks likely to continue. Indonesian military claims 900 GAM separatists, 66 military and 304 civilians killed since most recent campaign began, but independent access to verify these or other data remains highly restricted.

Korean Peninsula

Sabre-rattling has resumed since six- way multilateral talks held in August ended inconclusively. North Korea said was uninterested in holding further talks and announced was taking measures to increase nuclear deterrent. On 19 September IAEA had urged DPRK to dismantle nuclear program, but latter rejected demands four days later, calling IAEA a “political maid” of U.S. DPRK denounced deployment of new U.S. Patriot missiles in South Korea. Meanwhile, U.S. unveiled plans to fly new spy plane along DMZ. Chinese Government transferred control of border with DPRK from police to army; unconfirmed reports say it sent 150,000 troops to border region to control refugee flows.

Maldives

Unprecedented anti-government riots rocked capital, Malé, after police killed three prisoners (a fourth died later) during jail riot. Amnesty International accused President Gayoom, about to seek sixth term in office, of running repressive government.

Myanmar

Aung San Suu Kyi underwent surgery on 19 September; released from hospital on 26 September into house arrest. UN envoy Razali Ismail arrived in Rangoon on 30 September, urged government to release Suu Kyi from house arrest and commence substantive talks with opposition.

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