CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Violence continues unabated since talks between government and Maoist rebels collapsed on 27 August, with more than 400 dead since breakdown in ceasefire. Maoist-initiated general strike demanding abolition of monarchy brought country to virtual standstill for three days. Little progress made in instituting all-party government or restoring normal democratic process, and anxiety increasing about possible fall of government. Rebels announced would cease hostilities during nine-day Hindu festival of Dashain, beginning on 2 October.
Several violent incidents in Karachi: seven killed by unknown assailants on 2 September and bombs exploded on 3 September in Sunni seminary and 19 September in office complex. Authorities detained a number of South East Asian students on suspicion of terror links. A tape attributed to Ayman al-Zawahri, Osama Bin Laden’s deputy, called for Pakistanis to overthrow President Musharraf. Kashmir violence undermining chances of normalising relations with India - Pakistani foreign minister cancelled scheduled October visit.
Australia to deploy administrators, public sector specialists and 200 police to address growing lawlessness. Deployment is condition of Australian aid program of U.S. $220 million. PNG Government unhappy at conditionality of Australian aid.
July ceasefire between government and MILF holding – informal discussions took place on 6-7 September in Kuala Lumpur resulting in agreement to hold fresh round of formal peace talks in October following arrival of Malaysian-led ceasefire observation team. 31-year war has thus far cost over 120,000 lives. Eduardo Ermita, chief government negotiator in peace talks with Muslim rebels, appointed as new defence secretary.
Security situation continuing to improve. Australian-led multinational intervention force maintaining order and disarming population. 3,400 weapons turned in, now searching for illegal arms. Mission likely to last longer than originally planned. Harold Keke, leader of Guadalcanal Liberation Front (GLF), and top commanders on trial for murder.
LTTE (Tamil Tigers) pulled out of Japanese-led aid talks on 10 September. Row between Sri Lankan president and prime minister over conduct of negotiations could threaten efforts to end 20-year conflict.
Taiwan failed again in bid to regain seat at UN. Taiwanese authorities took symbolically significant step of issuing passports with “Taiwan” emblazoned on front.
OSCE Minsk Group reportedly planning attempt at kickstarting peace talks after Azerbaijani presidential election of 15 October. PM Ilham Aliyev, son of ailing president Heydar Aliyev and likely successor, expected to adopt hard line on dispute.
Basque prime minister presented autonomy plan to region’s parliament – Spanish Government said plan illegal. Basque regional government filed a challenge in the European Court of Human Rights against Spanish anti-terror law banning Basque separatist party Batasuna. One member of terrorist organisation ETA killed and two policemen wounded in shootout on 14 September.
Concerted international pressure led on 25 September to adoption by local authorities of draft law on defence reform that, if endorsed by parliament, will provide for state command over entity armies and pave way for BiH to join NATO’s Partnership for Peace early next year. Draft laws on intelligence and indirect tax reform also await parliamentary endorsement. New commission to unite Mostar began work on 25 September. SFOR continues to uncover arms caches leftover from war. Remains of some 500 people have been discovered in single mass grave in NE Bosnia – assumed to be Muslim wartime victims of Serbs.
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