Mexico’s state institutions have been bedevilled for decades by widespread corruption and powerful transnational criminal organisations. Crime and the “war on drugs” have destabilised the country and fuelled violence; meanwhile, thousands of refugees and migrants flee through Mexico from similar volatility in Central America. Crisis Group focuses on addressing criminal violence, institutional corruption, trafficking and migration. Our aim is to help solve challenges to security posed by global criminal networks, local armed groups and the elusiveness of state rule.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Praveen Donthi, Pauline Bax and Falko Ernst about recent elections in India, South Africa and Mexico and what they mean for the countries’ policies at home and abroad.
President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum began appointing ministers as ruling MORENA party pushed for constitutional reforms; U.S. authorities apprehended Sinaloa Cartel leaders.
Sheinbaum began selecting candidates for key ministerial positions. Following her landslide electoral victory on 2 June, President-elect Sheinbaum 4 July designated Omar García Harfuch, public security secretary in Mexico City under Sheinbaum’s mayorship, as future security minister. Other key appointments reflected efforts to satisfy different MORENA factions and keep party stable after outgoing President López Obrador’s departure. Meanwhile, López Obrador and Sheinbaum continued work to enact constitutional reforms, which include overhaul of judiciary and eradication of several autonomous oversight bodies. While MORENA won majorities in both houses of legislature, it is three seats shy of super majority in senate needed for constitutional reforms, prompting party leaders in July to begin negotiations with opposition senators to secure votes.
Criminal violence persisted at high levels following election. Violence continued to intensify in some areas, notably Guerrero state, as criminal groups and state forces renegotiated power arrangements following poll. Notably, National Public Security System data released 9 July found that June was deadliest month in 2024, with 23% increase in homicides since May; Acapulco city saw heavy violence amid competition between Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and Los Rusos criminal group. In Michoacán state, journalists and inhabitants early July denounced repeated CJNG drone attacks in Aquila municipality; clashes between soldiers and alleged criminals 6 July killed seven in Tangancícuaro municipality. In Sinaloa state, confrontations 8 July between security forces and Sinaloa Cartel left four dead in Badiraguato municipality, Cartel’s core turf.
U.S. arrested two Sinaloa Cartel leaders. U.S. authorities 26 July detained Vicente “El Mayo” Zambada, head of Sinaloa Cartel, and Joaquín Guzmán López, son of former Sinaloa leader Joaquín Guzmán Loera, in state of Texas, U.S., where they had flown by private jet. With Mexican govt 27 July saying it had no prior knowledge of U.S.’s plans, rumours began circulating about how arrests materialised, including possible betrayal from within cartel or pre-arranged surrender. Arrests could trigger factional fighting in coming weeks and months, particularly if narrative of an internal betrayal gains traction.
Criminal violence [in Mexico] has become much more difficult to resolve today than six years ago. ... You can't expect a quick fix to the situation, it's too deeply ingra...
En este evento en línea, Falko Ernst, analista senior de México para International Crisis Group, habla sobre los retos a los que se enfrentará la nueva presidenta de México con las expertas Gabriela Warkentin y Lisa Sánchez.
Over the past seven decades, more than 100,000 Mexicans have gone missing and never been heard from again. Crisis Group expert Angélica Ospina reports on the intrepid searchers who hold government officials accountable and spearhead their own investigations to find their loved ones.
Mexican voters go to the polls on 2 June to elect a new president. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Falko Ernst explains who is likely to win, the security challenges she will face, and what the result might mean for U.S.-Mexican ties.
Mexico’s outgoing president has deployed more soldiers than ever to fight crime. But levels of violence remain high. His successor should set limits to the military’s role in public safety while working to sever state officials’ ties to criminals and allow better civilian law enforcement.
Social media is becoming a major source of information about violent crime in Mexico, with many hotspots too dangerous for journalists. But much of what appears is inaccurate or misleading, posted by criminal groups themselves. Platforms should adapt their policies to minimise the risks.
More and more women are joining the criminal outfits battling for turf in Mexico, heightening the dangers these groups pose. To arrest this trend, and to help offenders leave these groups, authorities should cooperate with civil society to provide alternative pathways to earning a living.
Organised crime in Mexico has gone local, as cartels break up into sub-groups battling over smaller patches of turf. At the same time, the federal government has wrested policing away from town halls. A reset is needed to re-empower municipal officials to protect the public.
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