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More than a month after the 17 July 2009 hotel bombings in Jakarta, Noordin Mohammed Top remains at large, but his network is proving to be larger and more sophisticated than previously thought.

Since 2003 the exploitation of oil has contributed greatly to the deterioration of governance in Chad and to a succession of rebellions and political crises. The financial windfall – in 2007, 53 million barrels earning the government $1.2 billion – has increased corruption, stoked domestic dissent and led to rebellions supported by neighbouring Sudan.

The semi-autonomous north-eastern Somali region of Puntland, once touted as a success of the “building blocks” approach to reestablishing national stability and widely viewed as one of the most prosperous parts of Somalia, is experiencing a three-year rise in insecurity and political tension.

The Burundi peace process has made much progress in recent months. The last rebel group, the Party for the Liberation of the Hutu People – National Forces of Liberation (Palipehutu-FNL), has renounced the use of arms and been registered as a political party. It has also changed its name, in accordance with the law prohibiting party names with an ethnic connotation, to the National Forces of Liberation (FNL).

The administration of Mostar is collapsing, a warning sign for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH).
 

On 17 July 2009, suicide bombers attacked two hotels in the heart of a Jakarta business district, killing nine and injuring more than 50, the first successful terrorist attack in Indonesia in almost four years.

On 4 March 2007, the two main actors in the Côte d’Ivoire crisis signed the Ouagadougou Peace Agreement (OPA). The deal initially produced a peaceful atmosphere. The demarcation line between the armed forces was dismantled, a new government formed and the groundwork laid for addressing the conflict’s key questions: Ivorian identity and citizenship, and presidential legitimacy.

The assassinations of the chief of defence staff, General Batista Tagme Na Wai, on 1 March 2009 and President Joao Bernardo Nino Vieira early the next day have plunged Guinea-Bissau into deep uncertainty. National Assembly Speaker Raimundo Pereira was quickly sworn in as interim president pending the election the constitution requires.

Ten months after the “August war” between Georgia and Russia, violent incidents and the lack of an effective security regime in and around the conflict zones of South Ossetia and Abkhazia create a dangerous atmosphere in which extensive fighting could again erupt.

For perhaps the first time since Iran and the U.S. broke ties in 1980, there are real prospects for fundamental change.